1/2 Live NLHE

Hero($180) in BB with AKs (first time VP$IP), Villain ($290) in MP raises to $15, hero three bets to $65, villain flats.

Flop ($150) 2JT

Hero shoves from big blind, Villain tank folds.

Can we expect villains to fold a percentage of the time that this play becomes profitable? I did not shove hoping for villain to call. At this point, I am representing JJ+, and I want any 99+ to fold, but I even have equity against some calls. I did not have a club in my hand, what do you guys think?

Villain showed QQ

You're indicating a range of 99+, AKs, AKo. Versus that range you have over 31% equity.

Having only $115 left, you only need ~30% equity to break even when V calls every time. Therefore it's a +ev play even before you add in FE.

Edit: I guess I'm assuming that V has AK in his range. Even if V doesn't, with that sized stack, it's still going to be +ev to shove.

Reads on V?

That's 100% standard otf.

When you 3-bet and villain flats the 3-bet his range is exclusively TT, JJ, QQ, and AKs.

90% of 1/2nl players in this spot are never ever EVER EVARRRR folding QQ here. They just aren't. Yes, TT and JJ made sets, yes QQ doesn't beat any pair in your 3-betting range, yes you are repping AA and KK... but with all that being said, players just can't bring themselves to fold overpairs. V's range is skewed heavily to sets and QQ in this situation with probably only around 30% of his total range consisting of AK

however, since you only have $115 behind and pot is $130... I guess shoving our remaining $115 here in order to "rep" AA/KK and fold out V's AK (the only part of his range we can actually fold out) makes this closer to 0EV overall.

So overall, I think our shove here is -EV but not glaringly so and close to 0EV.

I don't think shoving is terrible by any stretch. I guess if we think about the 30% of V's range that has AK and then our equity and then eff stacks and SPR I think we pretty much just end up having to shove 100% of all flops

If V is thinking, then this could be good play, but at low stakes, I think this is a bad play. However, we're never drawing dead here and could have ~35% equity in some cases, so this can't be THAT terrible.

Also, what Suit is our AK?