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Originally Posted by Drbennyboombass
Can you post the math you did ? How did you come to the conclusion "UTG only", Im not having a go Im just interested.
Well, in LLSNL I assume that, in a vacuum, most people are willing to play a range of roughly: any two Broadway, any pair, any connector, suited gappers, Ax suited, Kx/Qx suited sometimes, A-rag occasionally. AJo is FAAAAAAR ahead of that range, but since we're UTG we have to clear 8 people's random ranges. Now, our basic strategy with big value hands is to raise in order to isolate the action to an average of, ideally, 1.5 players (which allows us effective postflop pot control). If you raise to a size that consistently gets called by 1 to 2 people, out of a field of 8, you're approximately getting called by a 18% range, which looks something like: [[22-JJ, A7s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+]].
Most LLSNL villains use very simple strategies and will fit/fold worse hands than top pair, which means that if we whiff we will usually be able to cbet into 2- people (with a good image) and get folds on the flop. However, when we hit, we need to get enough worse top pairs to call that we've got greater than 50% equity. With AJo, if you hit a Jack you will usually get more than enough calls from worse, but if you hit an Ace, you will have exactly 50% vs a calling range -- which is incredibly thin, likely uncomfortably so, being OOP.
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That is a huge generalization. How can it always be correct to come in "guns blazing"??
A raise is inherently polarizing. When you bet or raise, you are laying yourself 1:1 on whatever money your villains put in, because you are effectively betting into a dry side pot. Therefore, for a raise to be +EV you need to have the expectation that you will win the hand better than 50% of the time, with or without showdown. When you put in a small raise that allows multiple people behind you to call, you are guaranteeing that that will not happen (because you will very rarely win without showdown, therefore you need to make your hand).