5/5, 900 effective

Villain is a snug young Asian TAG. Played with for about 3 hours and haven't seen him get out of line.

Hero with AK in UTG opens to 25
UTG+1 and Villain in MP1 calls, everyone else folds

Flop (85): AJ9
Hero bets 45, both players call

Turn (220): 3
Hero bets 145, only MP1 calls

River (510): K
Hero? 380 effective behind

I think if Villain flopped 2pair, set, or combo draw, he would be raising flop or turn. When he flats 2x, I think most of his range consists of weak TP (A8-AT), and maybe some weaker non-nut FDs like Q8, 87, 76, etc. Also if I jam OTR, I can't really rep many busted draws that he would bluffcatch with, since QT and club draws all get there.

Would it be better to check and maybe induce villain to turn weak TP into a bluff vs. going for thin value here?

Yeah, you're only real option is here is to either bet 200+ or check and try to catch a bluff. Tough spot, but I think I'm checking with no blockers and hoping to see AT throw a bet. That's about all in his value range that you're beating.

Check and folding to jam.

What are you ranging villain on when he jams here? I don't see him flatting 2x on that wet of a flop with 2p/sets.

Hasn't got out of line in 3 hours. What hand do you expect to see him bet for value that we are ahead?

2 pair and sets are very unlikely at this point you are correct. So are missed draws. Which leaves him with Ax , and Jx only.

Calling a shove, is calling super light IMO.

QT and flushes. I agree with the check/fold. All the obvious draws got there, and I really don't think he's slowplayed a set or two pair. If he is playing cautiously with a weaker 2-pair or something, I'd expect a small river bet or a check behind.

Hoping he is going to turn some worse made hand like top pair into a bluff after calling a big turn bet is pretty wishful. Most people would just be happy to take that hand to showdown after this runout. There's no way I'm giving someone credit for a bluff here unless I've seen them go for it before.

A general rule of thumb is to not try to bluff catch TAGs in LLSNL. They've been conditioned to play against calling stations. Save the bluff catching for the bad LAG button clickers.

Checking, but will sigh call an all-in if necessary.

Check fold. Not sure what this guy could possibly bluff with after flatting turn.

Prob just x/f

good sizing on the turn. you could have even gone 180 or 200.

OTR, you are not even considering C/Folding?

Against a snug player this is a very tough spot.

With the pot already 500, I would try to name my own price and bet something like 200. And probably fold to a raise.

C/f and it’s not close

I am always guy saying call, in every thread. If I suggest folding. A light bulb should turn on.

Only thing we beat is Ax getting turned into bluff.

We have AA, and KK in our range. Use them to bluff catch if ya want.

How are AA or KK any different here OTR? V is never value betting anything worse than a straight OTR.

I think sizing is too small throughout...Flop is 3-way and pretty coordinated so size 65-75. Eg Get value from weak Ax while you can OTF.

Turn, good spot for an overbet. V overcalled flop so he can be pretty wide and draw heavy...charge him for it.

Don't think this is good against a low bluffing frequency TAG. We are almost NEVER good here when he calls, and if we check and he bets he has it anyway. Offsuit K OTR is a better bet-fold candidate.

Just check-fold instead of lighting $200 on fire for a cheap showdown against a likely straight that doesn't raise a flushing river.

Simply because if we call with AK, AA, KK. We are simply calling to often.

If you feel you need a bluff catching range. Using AA and KK is enough combos.

Honestly, with this board. I don't see enough bluffs in any LLSNL players to even warrant calling at all.

It's suicide to bluff this board. Unless this guy is complete drooler. Easy fold.