It's actually very rare for me to get super aggressive with my draws. I will bet and raise them in small and medium pots, but it's very uncommon for me to be betting and raising it in with much more than 60-70bb. So I'm posting this hand where I did get it in with around 125bb to get some responses.

1/3, 400 eff., hero doesn't know villain well, but he seems to be a strong player. Very aggressive, but only selectively so (as far as I can tell).

Hero's image is fairly tight, but I've been a bit off my game and got caught bluffing poorly and, for those who may have noticed, NOT bluff-raising in a spot where I definitely should have. So image is deteriorating a bit, and I've been giving up on hands after c-betting or calling only one street. Only had one hand where I was following through with large bets and raises, showed down a set and was good.

OTTH:

Hero is UTG+2 with AJ, raises to 15

Villain calls, BTN calls, bb calls

Flop (60): Q34

Pretty good flop, and I don't want to x/call, so I'm continuing with a bet of 45.

Villain calls, others fold.

Turn (150): 5

Picked up a gutshot, and I think I should have a reasonable amount of fold equity, so I barrel 85.

Villain raises to 185...

pot is now 420, and I'm getting direct odds to just call, but I don't want to just call with breakeven odds and possibly not get paid if I hit, so I'm thinking I just get it in here.

I'll be shoving 250 into 420, and if called it will be 250 in a pot of almost 500.

The problem is that villain is getting such good odds on a call the he is probably rarely folding. On the other hand, if there are any dominated draws in his range, my equity against that range will possibly be much greater than 30%. [edit; just stoved AJdd vs 33/44 only, and have at worst 22% equity]

I don't know villain well enough to construct a range, but it includes sets, maybe some Q's (though these might just call turn?), and possibly some draws, I can't be sure villain is raising a draw here. It seems plausible, but I don't know. Sets seem like villain's most likely holdings, but there are few combinations of them and it's entirely possible (I'm guessing) that they should constitute only 50% of his range at most.

So I just shove the rest in.

Thoughts on this?

I don't really see the point of re-raising river. If my math is right, you're putting in about $150 more over his raise, so he has to call $150 more to win $800 total, so he's never folding unless he's on a complete bluff, and you're ahead of his complete bluffs.

You're getting 4.2:1 on the call, so need about 19% equity to be good here. Against a set, you have 10 outs (7 flush cards that don't pair the board, and 3 more non-diamond deuces) so 20% to get there and getting direct odds to call. Against AQ you have 9 flush outs, and 3 more outs to chop the pot, so 19.5% equity. Against KQ or QJ you have even more outs. The only hand I can think of that he could have against which you don't quite have direct odds to call is 76, and especially 7d6d.

That's just direct odds. I also think V is never folding river for just $150 more, so you have IO too. So this is an easy call for me. If I miss river I check/fold and save $150 over shoving. If I hit a straight or flush I shove. If I hit an ace I probably check/call. If I hit a Jack I probably x/fold.

yeah, you have zero FE, so the only reason to get it in here is to get paid if you hit your flush or gutter. Assuming that V has none of your outs, you are about 25% to get there on the river, so you have straight odds to call the raise on the turn to see if you still make your hand.

I would just call the 100 and then shovel the rest in if an A, 2, or diamond hits the river.

V really looks like he has 45 of diamonds, so with that being a large part of his range, and taking up some of your outs, that is another reason to just call.

But going back to the turn. Let's just assume that V has Qx on that flop and called your c-bet with one pair. If you really want to apply pressure and fire another bullet on the turn, you should be betting 120ish, not 85. You could probably get V fold a lot of Q's, and either fold or shove all of his drawing hands.

if you are calling if an ace hits the river, you should be shoving when the ace hits the river.

If V has some value hand like 2 pr or a set, he is never going to check behind on the river unless he specifically puts you on AQ. But H having a duece in his hand is irrelevant since he raise pre from UTG +2

That's probably right, in my mind an ace is the only tricky river card. Though sometimes he may check behind 2 pair on the concern that you hit a better two pair.

Why 45 of diamonds exactly? That's no more likely than 76 of diamonds. Why can't he play a set like this as well?

Yeah I agree with this, but it also depends how savvy villain is. I don't think there are too many hands I'm making this large a bet with on the turn after raising from +2. QQ, big draws like this one -- I don't know what I would do with something like AQ/KK/AA here, I would probably prefer a smaller bet size to get called by worse and potentially leave room to fold if need be.

A big bet on this turn from me feels suspicious. I would be suspicious of me, I think it *should* usually look like either QQ or some kind of bluff.

Rationale against flatting the 185:
- V will fold, and get away from last 250 if you hit
- V can bluff us off our hand on river with worse if we don't improve

Rationale against re-raising the 250 on turn:
- we're all-in in a spot that we probably have <30% equity
- we have virtually no fold equity

As you mentioned -- you're getting direct odds on a call here on the turn, so we can call profitably EVEN IF V is correctly folding all diamonds and 2s on the river. We pretty much all agree V is never folding here (whether he has a big hand or just a draw) So if we cross those two items off our list above...

It really boils down to -- what are you more afraid of / what do you think is more likely: you're getting more money in pretty bad against 2P+/set vs. you're going to getting bluffed off your hand if you're ahead and miss by just calling?

I'd probably call, jam any diamond or 2 river, check with the intention of calling any A or J river (calling J river is optional, I like it just so I'm not as exploitable but I don't hate folding either), and check with the intention of folding any other rivers. Keep in mind, there is a scenario, albeit not too likely, where V checks back some hands on the river. He's probably not jamming QX on most rivers and maybe he gives up on some bluffs/missed draws as well.

If I've understood this correctly (which I may have not), I'm typically the opposite. In small pots, the money in the pot doesn't matter too much; it's more the money in the stacks behind that we are interested in, so I actually play these spots fairly passively, just trying to hit my draw while not being blown off it. In big pots, the pot is worth taking down (the money behind being fairly trivial), so here I'm much more likely to get aggro with my good draws. But obviously situation dependent. ETA: I'm more discussing flop play in small limped vs bloated raised pots.

At loose deeper tables, I typically limp big suited broadway hands in EP. I don't want to build a bloated pot OOP, often times against hands that we've limited to those that dominate us (such as AK/AQ here), and these hands play fine very multiway in limped pots (where we can ~nutmine or just have a large SPR where we have lots of room to move with TP). They are also sometimes strong enough to limp/reraise depending on preflop action. If stacks were a lot smaller then I'm cooler with an open, but here, meh.

I'd also bet this flop attempting to take it down, but I'd probably bet smaller. There are very few hands (if any) that will call $30 but not $45, so I simply make it cheaper on myself. Plus I typically give myself way better odds to chase if someone does a lol raise. The only possible exception to this is if up against experienced hand readers that doubt we would bet a smallish bet on this board with TP+. ETA: If stacks were slightly smaller (i.e. pot more worth winning cuz it is huge relative to stacks) I would consider check/jamming this flop, but I think we have too much behind to risk this.

I typically shut down on the turn when called unless a scare card comes that could easily hit my range and makes it more difficult for mediocre hands to call (this ain't that card). Also note how being OOP here makes things very expensive in a bloated pot (whereas in position we could simply check back and realize our equity). So I would more lean towards check/call here. ETA: I feel this might be my biggest inconsistency with my game right now, in that I'm torn between "no Q ever folds here" vs "unless guy is an idiot he probably isn't calling down with a Q", but this is still just the turn (are we planning on 3 barrelling when we whiff 75% of the time?).

In the end, even thought this guy is aggro, we got raised on the turn. I don't see much raise/folding in my game. All we're basically doing is getting in huge money as a decent dog. I would simply evaluate whether I have the odds to chase my draw and call if I do.

GwouldplaymoststreetsdifferentlyG

Check/shove tirn is way better but it depends on his sizing. Im checking the turn as default, betting some dynamics but not when im seen as loose

0 FE as played so only way to win hand is call turn, check fold UI.

yeah. QQ. or scared aces

Reads would be nice. X/jam turn probably best. Not sure why you think you have FE leading turn.