I grumbled about this hand to a friend because I thought I played it like a fish, but he seemed to think it was well played. I thought it was a pretty clear decision on the turn so I guess I just need a sanity check.

The game is 1|2 10-handed with $200 max buy-in. Most stacks are $200-$300; Villain and I are the only ones deep.

Villain UTG ($700): Young white guy. Seems to be more active than average pre. Earlier stacked off in with QQ in a 3-bet pot on a J-high flop to beat KK and AJ. I won't go into details, but he agonized over it a bit, and the way the hand played out with stack sizes it seemed like an easy ship.

Hero CO ($900, covers table):Haven't played any hands of note with V, or many since V was here. I got my stack by getting it in three-ways with TT on an AATx board 8-handed to the flop. Ace magnets!

----------

Villain raises to $10, UTG+1 calls, folds to hero who raises to $35 with AKo, only V calls.

Flop ($78):
A73r
Villain leads $40, Hero calls.
This is a dream flop. I don't think UTG likely raises 77,33, A7s, A3s pre-flop, and AA would have likely 4-bet, so his range is capped at AK and he's drawing thin with anything else. The only bad turn card would be a Q or maybe a J, so I don't feel the need to fast-play this hand yet. Flatting keeps both of our ranges wide while retaining options to try to GII on later streets.

Turn ($158):
4x
Villain leads $50, Hero?

The sizing throws me off. It looks like an information bet intending to b/f? Spots like this make me hate that I don't pay better attention to villain's earlier actions. If I only flat his tiny bet or raise too small I can't play for stacks on the river without an overbet, but if I make a pot-sized raise Villain is going to "put me on AK" and fold?

I feel like I should raise the turn to try to stack off for 350 BB with TPTK here, targetting AQ, but my poker friend didn't seem to think so.

Seems easy? Maybe it should be in BQ, hehe.

prob just raise flop to 120, 175 ott, shove river for 370

Yeah I think calling is fine... seems like a raise would just fold out anything you beat. He might be trying to string KK / QQ along without risking too much, so play along with him and see how the river shakes out.

Edit: Reading wiffle's reply, raising the flop is pretty appealing too. He just led into your 3-bet so he's probably got a solid piece. Might as well make him pay if you really think you're 100% ahead.

As played I would prob still flat the turn.

I would prefer raising the flop smallish and taking initiative back instead of raising turn. As played I probably just call turn and bet river myself expecting V to check very often. Sizing would probably be ~55% of the pot on the river. If he's agonizing about GII with overpairs in "easy to ship spots" he doesn't sound like the type of villain that's going broke for 350bb with TPGK in a 3bet pot. Max value does not always equal effective stacks.

If he does bet river we very happily raise, but sizing would be very dependent on V bet sizing.

Based on your read in op why do you think you can get 350 bb in good with TPTK vs this guy here?

$110 on the turn.
$90 - $150 on the river depending on how fast he calls the turn.

If villain is any good you are not going to get him to stack off with worse aces very often, not for 350BB. If all the money is going in villain will turn up with AK/set more then AQ. This is the sort of situation where the optimal pay off is trying to get a reasonable chunk of villains stack but avoiding over valuing TPTK ourselves.

I would be mixing between calling and raising at every step of the way. Calling more then raising when villain makes a reasonable value bet and raising more then calling when villain probes the pot and mostly betting when he checks.

Maybe I played it right and am just second guessing myself, then. I think it's unlikely he'll stack off with AQ, but I'd be less surprised to see that than 77 raised UTG in this game regardless of stack sizes.

If Villain is not stacking off with AQ, then I should be pressuring him significantly when I get to this spot with KK?

How are you getting into that spot very often with KK? You are calling his flop lead with KK in a 3 bet pot hoping he has a hand weak enough that you can bluff him off it on the turn? Villain would have to be pretty consistent about leading flop wide and giving up on turn before that is a good play. For the most part you should be happy villain let you off cheaply by donking into you when you have KK.

You mean calling more than raising when villain probes the pot because he's prob drawing close to dead on such a dry board and we want to keep him in to try and get more value on later streets instead of forcing him out now?

Would you really be THAT surprised to see a random dude with a $700 stack at a 1/2 game that "seems to be more active than average pre" raise with 77 utg? You are making it seem like it is just totally out of his range because he raised utg. I mean it's 77, not T4o. When you stack off and get shown 77 because he's not stacking off with AQ or AJ, you're just going to be like no f'ing way this f'ing donk has 77. I can't believe he raised 77 utg!! Wtf was he doing raising that hand!!

With blockers to the top of his range, getting just shy of 3:1 and considering that donk bets are usually a sign of weakness from "unknowns" (no info on donking range), I'm inclined to float a street with KK, yes.

Most pre-flop raising ranges at this level are pretty nitty. Saying he's looser than the average nitty raiser isn't saying much. I'm thinking something like TT-AA, AJs+,AQo+,KQs, and I wouldn't be shocked by 77, but I think it's quite unlikely.

I could pull a number out of the air and estimate that he has .3 combos of 77 in his range, but that'd be a bit complicated, so I'd rather just assume zero for purposes of analysis.

no need to play for stacks this deep. I would just flat and decide on river. May minraise the river but think turn raise and river shove is too thin against this type of villain

This is pretty absurd analysis on your part.

Lol he can so have AA 77 33 A7s raising UTG+1. Players at 1/2 may be predictable but they're not robots. Use your imagination.

And players play trappy too so don't put him on 0% AA just because he didn't four ball it preflop.

If he's a thinking player it's not necessarily a sign of weakness to donk the flop into you, he could be leveling.

^this

What part do you mean? My estimate of his range was serious. If that's absurd I'd like to know why, because AFAIK it's fairly rare for villain's to open wider UTG, and when they do it quickly becomes apparent.

The .3 combos of 77 was a bit of a joke, but in seriousness we should be able to say there's some % chance he raises 77 when he has it UTG. I don't see a reason to actually quantify it and put it in his range as it would be a pretty small part of his range. Other factors are more important.

If I've said something ridiculous I probably won't figure out what it was myself. Do you care to explain?

This random guy at 1/2 isn't some micro stakes online multi-tabling nit following a strict hand range chart for every position. He's just some dude that came to have fun and play poker at the local casino. Assuming you know every action he is going to take with every hand all the time after a few hours of live poker is absurd and potentially very costly. He looks down at 77 and says what the hell, ten dollars.

And it's not going to become quickly apparent if some guys utg opening range is what you said but with a few more PPs and suited aces in it.

This. Getting stacks in w/TPTK 350BB deep is not +EV IMO.

It looks like a weak ace that want's an excuse to fold. So, just call, bet if checked to.

BTW, I love players that bet/fold marginal TP hands with this line/sizing. Float them like crazy and take the pot away when their sizing on the turn screams weakness. Easy game.

Very small percentage of LLSNL players are positionally aware, because they simply aren't too concern of "little" mistakes when most of them believe they would make good decisions when the time comes.

Their opening range UTG and CO are mostly the same, but little things that could take place in CO isn't possible in UTG, such as everyone folding to CO and inducing CO to raise with hands that he would normally fold UTG.

One of the biggest flaws for most players is removing hands from range of opponents because they can't envision themselves having those hands in their range.

77 is definitely in V's range preflop, but a better question is how often do LLSNL players bet into preflop aggressor with near-nut hand on dry flop?

That's what I'd do if I wanted to bluff.

If this guys UTG opening range is so tight you're never expecting 77, I wouldn't 3-bet pre. It doesn't sound like AK is ahead of his UTG opening range, and definitely not his continuing range.

For those saying raise the flop, why? To fold out all worse Ax that might have gotten to the flop? I'd rather keep them in and firing oop.

This discussion about 77 feels pointless because I don't understand what others' points are. If you're saying that 77 should be a small part of his range, then I don't think I ever disagreed with that, but it would be ridiculous to give him just as many 77 in his range as QQ. It has to be heavily discounted, and I decided to eliminate it for simplicity, not accuracy. I just don't see 77 raised from ANY position often enough to worry about it here unless I have good reads on the player. If you're saying that trying to stack off will only get called by AK or an unlikely A7s/A3s/77/33, I don't agree, but I've been convinced that it's probably still not a good play to raise to $160 and shove good rivers against this player.

AK is just barely ahead of the range I assigned, but it could easily be looser or tighter. If he 4! I can muck easily, but I'm not sure what to think about his calling range. I haven't seen someone 3! him before and have seen him flat premiums behind a raise.

The main reason I raised is the UTG+1 cold caller. He's a bit fishy and could be pretty wide here. I'm definitely ahead of his range if he calls and wouldn't mind a fold either.

This is pretty much the exact reason I didn't want to raise the flop. I think it lets him off easy. It seems unlikely he'll feel good about calling with AJ OOP this deep when I raise him on the flop. If I flat he probably has a high turn bet %. Is it true with others' games also that many players have a really hard time checking OOP after betting a previous street? It seems to be the case where I play.

The discussion about 77 isn't pointless because you're going to see that hand or AA if you get in 350 bbs here.