1/3, 300 eff., villain is unknown but clearly is at least good; he's young and playing tight over last 20 min, I can tell he knows what he's doing, but don't know the specifics of his game yet. He should think basically same about me I guess

I'm in SB with A9 (villain is +1)

UTG (a loose-passive fish, basically) raises to 8, Villain calls, 2 more calls, I call in SB, BB folds.

FLOP (40): A94

I lead out 32, fish (PFR) calls, villain fairly quickly raises to 110, folds back to me.

Hero....???

Gross spot. He could have 44/99 for sure. He could have Ax or maybe like 23 / 25, but I really just don't know if he's the type to raise with these hands or just CALL in position with great implied odds... same for something like A4, I kind of doubt he raises this hand, he's too smart for that.

So... 4 combos of sets, + some pair+draws since we have to guess he must raise these at least sometimes.

I actually shoved all in, but thinking over it now and stoving it I think this was a bigger mistake than I realized it could be. I'm basically shoving 270 to win... 400 (assuming worst case scenario and fish folds his Ax or whatever), so getting about 1.5:1

Alright, I don't know, I'm 38% against a range of 44,99,+ five combos of Ax

What do you guys think? That's obviously a very tight range, but seriously, what else could he have? It's basically a question of how many drawing combos we can correctly assign — obviously he could have way more that 5, but I'm not confident he's raising them (maybe ever? who knows, it's a great spot for him to just call I think). Maybe it's just marginal either way.

He can also have Ac9c and Ac4c at the very least. Shove and feel okay about it, but not thrilled.

A9 yes, A4... I think at least 4 combos sure. So yeah, I guess this gives me at least around break even equity, but I still think folding would have been fine as well, just avoid the variance. I've only invested 40 into this pot, I'm about to put in 270ish more; I don't love my hand quite that much... + my instinct is telling me I'm in bad bad shape; sometimes it's hard to listen

He can still have AK maybe AQ and be overplaying his hand. I like your shove...you have a lot of sets blocked. Don't call then check or shove and give him a card if he has flush outs with or without the ace.

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Nothing you said leads me to believe that AK and AQ should be entirely discounted from villain's range, so I need to assume that at least a fraction of these combos play that way.

That makes it a better spot and should push you more comfortably into the shove column IMO.

(That said, it seems like you shoved into bottom set and got stacked here)

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you got top two on a weak flop with an ace on it. you get raised and think about folding?
if you fold this what do you play with when you get raised on the flop in other hands.

win or lose i am going all in here. after all my years i dont fear sets very much until i see a reason to believe a person flopped one.

Snap shove over his raise. You're being super results oriented

Against a balanced player folding here is terrible. Against a lot of the 1/2 population that will only jam the NFD and sets this is an easy fold. if your read is wrong and he's bad you will see plenty of bad players jamming AJ here to protect. Honestly in this spot I'm probably only raising with pair plus draw, a set, or top two so you wouldn't be in great shape.

Don't beat yourself Up though if you got it in vs a set. Calling is the "correct" play.

I wouldn't assume for a moment that he knows what he's doing/he's 'too smart to do that', as you just don't have the table time to make that call. Sure, maybe you can deduce that he is trying hard to win/play well, but that just ain't the same thing.

I'm bringing all of this up because the tone of your post leads me to believe you might generally be too quick to reach your conclusions on player tendencies - which is a leak in my book.

And by the way, let's just say you are right about his poker ability. Well, now you might have to consider the levels he doesn't expect you to consider --- that he knows you'll perceive his raise as a hand nutted enough to raise your strong lead/fish call, but it's really just a squeeze/ISO play with some high-equity hand he wants to play HU with the fish and he expects you to dump most of your range.

Just jam that shizz

I know one mistake I constantly make with new opponents (especially the younger ones I see playing tight over a short period) is that I consistently overrate them. It usually takes me many hours to realize they aren't nearly as good as my initial take on them. Just sayin'.

Sounds like there is at least one fish and perhaps more in the hand, and flop will go 5 or 6 ways. We'll be OOP (much harder to play and get paid off), but for this cheap price I'm ok with preflop.

Admittedly very gross spot, and we don't really have enough history with Villain to know exactly what he's capable of (both good and bad). Bottom line for me is that we (probably with a tight image) just donked big into the world, a fish called (who might never be laying down anything so his FE with his draws is probably low), and he raised to commit for stacks. He's also got 2 others left behind him who could have flopped monsters (and he doesn't seem too concerned about that). He was the first to call the perflop raise. Did he really do that with A4s, cuz that is about the only hand we're ahead of, and even that hand might play cautiously with tight us donking. Being the first to call preflop, AA might even be in play.

All things considered, I make a huge nit fold here. The only thing that might sway me otherwise is that our read is based on 20 minutes. But our read is our read and I go with that until shown otherwise.

ETA: Kinda surprised at the responses to be honest. I can certainly understand everyone's willingness to commit if we're not convinced the time we've had with this guy is long enough to get an accurate read, and that is certainly fair enough. But nothing in this read says we're playing a horrible player. This guy is calling a small fish raise preflop with the world behind him with big Ax, sees the tight guy donk, the fish call, and says perfect spot to get it all-in? That makes him the worst player at the table, and nothing in our read suggests that. Even sitting on an ok draw here, he sees a bet and a call and so he's getting good odds (which could be padded behind), and we default him to aggro to raise his draw? That's our default for new guys, to aggro raise their draws to this action given these odds? Meh. Admittedly tough spot though.

Gnitfoldingismybusiness,andbusinessisgoodG

^^^

SABR is good, I agree with him.

yeah he "could have" a lot of things, including draws, but we have top two with 100 big blinds to start the hand on a dry ace high flop

this

how bad do you think raising is, if you were the villain with ace queen or ace king on the flop like he did.

if you dont think raising with either of those hands what would you do, just call and let the field come along? or fold them after hitting this flop hard.