2-5
V is new to the table and I have no reads other than he is a 20-30 year old asian male. he bought in for 1k and stacked a guy with 66 on K635hhdd board when other guy had AA (V defended a blind check/ called the flop and check/jammed the turn), so he had like 1700 effective, prob had been at the able 15 min before the following hand.

Hero 30y.o. white male, prob viewed on the tight/solid side. Hero starts the hand with a little over 1500

Hero raises UTG+2 to 15 with 2c2h, 3 calls including the BB (who is V in this hand)
(say hero opens AxKx-Ax2x,AxKy-AxTy,AA-22,KxQx-Kx8x,KxQy,QxJx-Qx9x,JxTx,Tx9x,9x8x,8x7x,7x6x)

flop(55 after rake): 256
check, I bet 30, two folds, BB calls,

turn (115):K
check, I bet 100, V calls,

River (315): J
V asks for a count of my stack, I move my stack forward, once he gets a view he snap donk jams 1400ish effective...???

So obviously I don't have to defend that much from a MDF standpoint also it's not like my range is capped so he shouldn't be over bluffing here...just from playing alot live this is a really nutted play to make...but what does the forum see in these spots.

as for pre- I kind of get the feel for the table before altering my sizing so if the table is tighter I 3x it if looser i 4-5x pre-

Probably fold & call with JJJ+ problem is we don’t get to the river with manny flushes unless it’s A6ss specifically.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

+1 fold. If he wasn't in BB, it's closer.

I’m okay with folding if I could find a hand V has here that I think beats me. What’s his story?

Flats pre from bb. But shows no flop or turn aggression with two flushes on board. What are we supposed to give him credit for here other than a slow- played set of 55 or 66? One combo of 8s7s? AsXs that didn’t 3b from bb?

I suppose this is why I hardly ever play 22 at 2/5 and I certainly never open it before the HJ. Here we are, butt deep with a RIO hand and no idea what to do.

I agree this V shouldn’t show up with too many bluffs here. But I’m calling because his line makes no sense.

Villain can show up with a ton of flushes

He is in bb getting nice odds vs hero’s 3x & 3 calls, then hero bets small otf which entices a healthy myriad of gutshot + bd spades to float

So he has floated a flop with bdfd? He’d probably 3b/fold his nutted Ace combos from bb anyway. Agree he has plenty of one gap combos draws too but I think more diamonds than spades. Agree with you it’s a gross spot but V’s line is a bit suspicious.

Villain has a ton of flushes here. Because he is getting a price and completing the action and because you are so deep, he should be completing pre with any suited 0 or 1-gapper. He just has so many gutshots/pairs that backed into flushes here: 54,64,53,78,67,68,79,89,A6,A5,A4,A3. That's at least 12 combos of flushes.

You have some flushes too, but not as many. At least A3ss, A4ss, 78ss. Maybe from Villains perspective you could also have 79ss.

In spots when your range is uncapped I don't think LLSNL players are running huge river bluffs. That is he's almost surely underbluffing in this spot when you can have the nut flush here. When an opponent is underbluffing we can throw MDF out the window and just make decisions based on pot odds -- i.e., are we good 45% of the time here? I don't think we can find 10 bluff combos that would take this line, so this is a fold

Nevertheless, with 4 flush combos in our range, we are actually justified by MDF in folding out our entire non-flush range when V 5x's the pot on the river.

I think I have 5-6 flush combos on the river As6s-As3s,9s8s,8s7s,7s6s (7s6s is debatable if I bet the flop or play it as a c/c), I think vs his over 4x jam I can only call with the flushes and KK (JJ very close) but as you stated we can over-fold the river and not be exploited.

As for Vs play I agree this river is better for his nutted range and him leading the river large for value is prob a good play (over 4x pot is ridic though I mean he bets 600 he applies the same sort of pressure and puts 2-5 regs in a gross spot (that prob gets over-defended)...

So if V has the naked ace of trump, you basically have to have exactly straight draw plus spades to have spades?

I dunno, I'm in the fold camp, I just think a V with like A6x here could be taking a pretty massive crack at you. I agree, why bother for the full amount when $600 probably does the job/puts people in as sick of a spot.

If you wouldn't c-bet this flop with like AJ/AQ/QJ, does this action make you reconsider? Like I think this V's action would be an argument for always c-betting the backdoor NFD this deep, because otherwise you don't have enough combos of the nuts on certain runouts.

that's a good point but also balanced by the fact that it was 4 ways to the flop and if any of the in position raisers decide to raise their over-pairs multi-way, then I just burned the bet...I don't have Monker but wonder how straightforward it likes us playing 4 ways....

This is a pretty easy fold; most Vs are unbalanced toward value w/ that line, and this V hasn't shown any signs of being a maniac. Really not worried about getting exploited by relative unknowns for overfolding to 4x pot shoves deep, but even if using MDF we show up with a lot of stronger combos here (including several flushes).

If V has any AsXx given flop & turn, congratulate him on being a complete sicko and move on.

bigger otf

ap fold

Classic penny stakes move, it's always a flush