My question is, in heads up situation, when we were ahead before the river, generally, should we bet to the amount of money that the villain more likely to call (without giving the right odds for them), or should we push the limit, expecting a fold but be happy when called?

Sklansky in his book said every time our opponent make a mistake, we gain. So in that case, we should always looking for a call, otherwise our opponent makes the right fold. Is it always the case?

I'm asking because, in my recently 40 times holding KK QQ JJ, I lost 32 of them(exactly 80%), including those I folded on bad board. I know I must have made a lot of mistakes, but I would like to focus on betting size right now.

To make it easy to discuss, I have a couple of scenarios (2/3 blinds), feel free to comment on any specific point if not the general question:

1. Preflop
we have KK on BB, EP raise open to 20, fold to us. I would like to minraise to 40, or flat call here to under represent my range.

we have KK on button, EP raise to 15, one caller to us, I'd like to raise to 40-50, depending on different villains, trying to get to heads up, but not drive both of them gone.

we have QQ UTG, how big should we open? Say standard open raise on the table is 15, is it OK to bet 20-25 with our QQ UTG.


2. Holding over pair on dry board (or flop trips with top kicker)

Heads up with loose but not calling station villain, I will always like to take the passive route. If the villain is the preflop aggressor, I'd like to just call his bet, also showing weak with some hollywood. If hero is the preflop aggressor, I'd like to bet 1/3 to 1/2 the pot on both flop and turn.


3. Flop set, top two pair, or holding over pair on draw heavy board

Premise: we know we were ahead, heads up, both are deep, loose villain, who likes to gamble with drawing hand, but will fold to a unrealistic big bet. How should I bet?

This is the scenario that I lost three of my biggest pot ever, and only win small pots here and there. I don't really have a plan for this.

Most of time, I prefer to bet not too big, try to get value from drawing hand, and inducing a bluff reraise. Also, I can have enough money left to reevaluate the situation when scary card come. However, this did not work well for me, when the pot getting big on flop, villain getting more sticky to see the river, and river always kills me.


Thank you in advance, and appreciate any inputs.

There's too much to digest here. It seems like a lot of your posts center around value bet sizing. What I will say is that you generally want to make the biggest bet they will call when betting for value.

You generally seems to have fancy play syndrome. This is LLSNL. You can try to induce aggro players, good ones and otherwise. But mostly, against loose and passive players, you want to exploit their tendency to call bets.

Don't save enough money to be able to reevaluate when a scary card comes. Just ****ing bet. Bet too much to deny them odds on hitting that scary card, hope they call, and then hope you dodge their outs. Sometimes they'll call a pot sized bet with 8 outs and 5 BBs left and you'll lose. Oh well. That's the game. But do it over and over and over, and you win money.

Wow, that's a lot of questions. Best I can do for you is give you my rule of thumb on value betting: If you are feeling confident that your hand will stay best and you're trying to milk value, bet about half pot. If you have a fish on the hook and you want to play for stacks, bet a size that will let you do it in two streets, or bet about pot. If you're not sure, bet about 2/3 pot.

I'll leave this open to see if anyone wants to nug through all of that, but I doubt you'll get many detailed answers to all of those questions. You might want to post real hands that serve as examples (with reads, stack sizes, etc), one per thread with one thread on each type of scenario you'd like to discuss.

I think in basically all these scenarios you are trying to trap too much versus just get value for your hands. I feel like you are worried too much about people folding when that isn't a bad outcome.

For preflop, if someone makes it 20, you lose a lot of value just min-raising to 40. Depending on stack size, this could be a shove but I would make it something like 50-75 maybe even 100 depending on the opponent. I want to get as many chips in the middle as most opponents are willing to call with hands like KK/QQ as a lot of people will call off with worse hands. For the multiple players already in for 15, I would make it 50-75 range as well. I am perfectly happy taking down the pot if they both fold to get more money in to reduce effective chip stack for post flop play. Basically with these big pairs, I want to be playing as shallow as possible versus having to play deep stack poker making decisions all the way to the river. I want to get the money in pre-flop or on most flops if I can against most opponents.

For when you hit a set, this can depend on the opponent and board texture as well as stack sizes. If it is draw heavy, I lean towards betting and making our opponent pay to draw. If there are no draws against someone who is known to bluff, I will play it passively. This is often very suspicious after the aggression pre-flop so very few players that this scenario fits. With an over pair, I am looking to just bet big usually.

For the deep stack question, I am not sure how you are ever flopping top two pair with KK/QQ/JJ but when I flop top 2 or sets on a draw heavy board, I want to play fast to make my opponents pay to draw especially since have re-draw outs to a full house. If you play too slow, you give opponent free cards or odds to draw correctly. Additionally, if I am the aggressor and c-bet in these pots, a lot of players will take the drawing hands as a good time to raise as a semi-bluff. This can be great value spot to shove over the semi-bluff even over betting the pot when flopping the nuts. This puts opponent in really bad spot.

I agree with other post to post specifics as every hand will be a little different but overall, I would say play more straight forward poker. In the live low stakes in my experience, the straight forward play is usually the best option. The level of the average player isn't at the level where you need to get so fancy with premiums.

Betting to get a call after denying odds is the general idea. But there are a lot of things that play into that. You have to consider implied odds in addition to direct odds and pretty much everything in the hand effects implied odds.

It also looks like you are trying to bet small and keep people in hands too often. When looking at bet sizing one of the many things you have to factor is is how likely they are to call. If a $20 bet gets called 90% of the time and a $40 bet gets called 75% of the time the $40 bet is more profitable.

One of the big things about bet sizing is giving away information. A min raise isn't really under representing your hand. Usually you are just announcing to opponent you have a big pair while giving him good odds to try and beat it.

You can probably just take min raises out of your play entirely. Once you factor in hiding information and balancing your range it's almost never the best play.

Thanks guys, there're a lot of good stuffs here I can digest.

I didn't meant to put out a lot of questions. My original problem is that I find it so hard to choose a bet size when I'm clearly ahead. I know it's a broad question, so I added some context thinking it might make it easier to generate a discussion.

For those JJ-KK hands, I always feel like I stand at the wrong side of the betting, both pre and after the flop. Effective stack is deep, I'm ahead when money goes in, I always loss big and win small. There's some bad luck here for sure, but I really want to develop a solid betting plan in this kind of situation, instead of getting less and less confident each time. Fun fact is, if I just fold all these three hands as far as I kept tracking them, I would have a way bigger win-rate, bummer

How deep are you playing? If you are getting it all in with 200+ big blinds on later streets with JJ-KK without improving, you are probably beat. I think this is a hole I had in my game for awhile and can be exploited in players when they over value strong starting hands. If I play deep against someone I think has JJ-KK, I am calling pretty loosely pre-flop because I know if I make 2 pair/straight/flush that I can get all the chips without risking much.

The other thing to look at is why are you playing big pots so frequently with these hands. I think this comes back to your bet sizing being too small and not folding enough. Most of your hands should be small and be happy winning small pots with these hands. I do not feel good getting these hands all-in with 200+ BBs without improving 90% of the time. I'm usually hoping to take down pre-flop or on the flop.

This isn't bad luck. Almost for sure it is bad play. Don't worry, when I started playing online, to my horror KK was the hand I lost the most money holding. There is a solution.

The first thing is to realize that the average winning hand at show down is 2 pair. When you get to show down with just a pair of kings, you have a below average winning hand. You should expect to lose most of the time.

The second thing to realize is that your opponents aren't stupid. If you raise pf, bet on the flop and bet on the turn, you probably have at least TP. They aren't going to call on the turn unless they beat TP. Generally, if they can beat TP, they can beat an OP.

Therefore, you want to keep your pots small when you have an OP. The question is how much. A long departed poster years ago came up with the idea that if you were to stack off on the flop if the stack to pot ratio was under 4 on the flop, it made sense to not put in more than a 4:1 ratio when holding TP with bigger stacks.

For example, let's say you have KK in MP. There's already been a limper and you decide to bump it to 15 in a 1/3 game. You get 1 caller so the pot is about 30. That means you don't want to put in more than another 120 into the pot. You should be able to see this limits you to two streets of betting. Which two streets you chose will depend on the board and the villain's range/tendencies. So if you bet the flop, and the board remains dry on the turn, you'll likely check. If the board is wet, you'll bet the turn, but check on the river. Checking the flop will mean betting the turn and river.

Now of course these are guidelines and your opponents aren't always going to let you do this. However when the pot starts going over 4:1, you want to be thinking about why this hand should be an exception.

Good luck.

When those big pots happened, I was usually 200+ bb deep. And I was ahead when the money went in the pot most of the times, if not always. I can tell the villain that I faced have the same kind of mindset you mentioned here. They tended to call loosely and try to stack me when hit two pair or flush. However, the situation is I got my sets on flop a lot, they got their two pair or flush draw a lot, and at last, I lost all the time. I don't have a clear plan on this situation. Should I trap, or should I bet just to offer the bad odds, or should I bet big? Should I set up a betting plan to get all the chips in the pot, or should I be scared about the potential flush?

Trapping should be very rare in LLSNL. Bet for value when you are ahead of their range unless you have a very good reason to deviate.

Thank you. The stack to pot ratio guideline is helpful.

As for the first two points are not that related to my concerns. I understand that average winning hand at show down is 2 pair. Actually, when I mentioned I lost 80% of my recent 40 times JJ-KK hands, I do fold a fair amount of them.

The problem confused me a lot is, when I am clearly ahead (some of the opponents are just easy to read in live games), I don't have a solid plan in my mind to back up an action.

Suppose I have over pair, opponent gets tptk. I know he likes his card a lot but will be alerted by a big reraise. Is is Ok for me to under represent my cards and let him do the bet?

I flop top sets, opponent on flush draw for sure, and likes to gamble. How much should I charge him here? He got less than nine outs, on the flop, between 2/3 the pot to 5 times the pot all in, how much should I bet? what about on the turn?

Generally, are we more willing to get the profit for sure, or are we more willing to get all the money in when we're ahead but tolerate the low possibility bad result?

.

Your goal is to win the most money, not the most hands.

This is a misleading factoid because anyone with any pair has two pair when the board pairs, which happens half the time. KK unimproved on a random board is a vastly better than average hand.

OP,

Got some general advice for a general question:

1) The gameplan of most LLSNL players is to try to make strong hands then try to make monies after they hit. Unexpected aggression from these players (having your bet raised postflop, or facing a big bet on the river) can be taken at face value the vast majority of the time, i.e. that they are strong. You should usually be folding one pair hands when this happens.

2) Don't go to great lengths to avoid getting sucked out on. It's common for new players to think "if I can just avoid my KK getting cracked so much my winrate would be so much higher". The thing about this is that it amounts to "I need to find a way to stop my loose opponents being so loose", which is not what you want to be doing. Focus on getting money in the pot while ahead and not putting it in while behind.

3) 95% of your bets postflop, at least as a new player, should be between half pot and full pot, with bigger bets being less common. Typically with an overpair you bet something around half pot to 3/4 pot, depending on board texture (more on wet boards, less on dry boards).

I hadn't realized, so thank you for that bit of information. On the river, someone is unlikely to be calling with average hand, though.

Thanks ChrisV. I'd like to have a further discussion about the last two points you mentioned.

When I know I'm ahead, I never thinking about "protecting" my hand. I basically focus on two things: 1)how to get the money in 2)not offer the drawing hands with right odds. I think this is closed to what you meant here.

Say If I bet 2/3 the pot, villain might call 80% of the time with his worse hand; if I bet the pot, he might just have 40% possibility to call. I will always choose the 2/3 pot choice. However, this kind of betting gives me a lot more chances being sucked out.

Recently I have discussed this with my friend, who insist that I should bet more, so that I can clearly deliver the information that I am strong, getting called or not is not my concern. If I kept under represent my hand, I'm destined to be sucked out.

For a preflop example, 2/3 game, three players limped in, I got QQ on button. If I raise to 35, highly likely I will go heads up with the loose player on my right; if I raise to 45+, the loose player might call might fold, but my range is much higher than the 35 one. In this case, I would like to go with 35, instead of 45+.

As for postflop bet size, I choose my bet very close to what you said here. But, a normal game in my casino, if I 3bet preflop, then I bet 1/2 to 3/4 pot on the flop, it will show some kind of weakness, I'll be called a lot or even reraised by some paired hand and drawing hand. I am actually happy about this situation, so I would like to tank a while and bet 3/4 the pot, with my over pair or sets. Or, considering the stack size behind, I will choose a size that makes me easy to shove on the safe turn.

With that, is it good for me to under represent my hand? If I choose to under represent my hand by betting less than the opponent expected, is this considered as trapping? If both 3/4 pot and whole pot size bet will be called, should I always go with the pot size?

I built a big pot, but lost on the river to flush draw, straight draw, runner runner fullhouse, and two pair all of the times recently. Giving away all my earnings in one hand makes me truly question my line of betting.


.

Yeah your friend is wrong. You don't want to blast people out of the pot.

Suckouts happen, just gotta keep making the right play. The amount of variance possible in poker will blow your mind. The good news is that high winrates mean less variance.

Typically you should bet whatever they will call, but you also want to bear in mind your overall strategy with your whole range in spots. For example, in a spot where you will be cbetting a lot of air, you might want to keep your value bets smaller, because otherwise you either have to bet large with bluffs as well or else vary your sizing between bluffs and value, neither of which is desirable.

No offense, but your friend is not a good poker player. You bet for value, not to "represent your hand" or to avoid being sucked out on. Read up on EV.

My big pair losing momentum went on, guys. I know it’s irrelevant here, but, I feel so helpless:

Just finished a 4 hours session. Had AA three times, 1) I 4bet all-in preflop, lost to KQs two pair on turn 2) call a reraise all in on flop vs flush draw, lost on turn 3) finally win this one on turn.

KK 3bet all in on flop vs straight draw, villain hit strait on turn

And the very first hand tonight, AQ flop top two, went all in on turn, lost to flush draw on river





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Sorry to hear, man, but don't get results oriented because of it. You got the money in good. That's exactly what you want to do. It's frustrating when you come out on the bad side of variance, but if the fish didn't sometimes win when they play stupidly, they wouldn't keep playing stupidly.

Run bad will happen. That is why you have a bank roll. The KQ is more then 10% against AA. You will make a lot of money in the long run against a guy calling a 4 bet shove with KQ but losing multiple times in a row will happen.

With the flush and straight if there is enough money in the pot it's very possible both of you had profitable plays moving all in. The flush draw can have close to 40% equity even without straight potential, losing to those multiple times in a row is common.