I would guess most players will raise 88+ near 100% of the time. Maybe half of 88 and 99 limp along for 6 combos together but surely TT+ are always raising? At most I reckon 10 combos of limped 88+

What is a realistic range of 6X hands for a limper in a multiway limped pot? 96s 86s 76 65 64s 63s A6s K6s is more conservative but still comes to 11 combos.

So, IMO, even conservatively a limper probably has a similar number of quads combos as boats 66688-666AA. Obviously 6X always 3bets the river while 88+ only sometimes 3bet the river and maybe only QQ+ which are the least likely to limp preflop in the first place. That makes more combos of 6X, I'd guess 11 quads vs 2 combos of boats.

Does villain 3bet river with 7X or worse? I think almost certainly not. It is too clear these hands can't get called by worse for any half competent player at 2/5 to have them in his river 3bet range.

If villain always limps all pairs and only limps A6s 76s and 65s then he is going to have 2 or 3 combos of 6X and 42 combos of 88+ Such a villain could over value AA and KK in this hand and thereby the majority of his river 3bets could be hands hero beats. I don't think players capable of this are very common at 5/2 but I could be wrong.

Anyway, rather than just poking holes in my analysis why not share your own analysis with us?

I'm not super keen on raising the river but I think after hero checks the turn some villains will bet 88+ or even some 7X on river and refuse to lay down their boats to a raise on the grounds that Hero could be bluffing completely or over valuing 7X himself.

On balance I think raise/fold river after checking turn is OK.

I actually have 8 value combos in my range, as I would also limp 64s here pre-flop.

As for results, I actually folded in this spot, thinking that few 2/5 players would ever shove here without the nuts, especially considering that I could plausibly have it after I raise the river. Most 2/5 players are not capable of sick durrrr-like bluffs.

Villain claims to have had A7 but as I said I find that claim extremely dubious since I believe that I had the 7 (not certain, may have been 7, however I think it was the ) and his hand has enough value in this spot to just call. Additionally, he didn't show the bluff, when he was the type who probably would. Also, never saw him get too out of line deep into a hand in the 4 or 5 hours we played together. He claims that he shoved to "get me to fold an overpair" but again that seems dubious as, given the pre-flop action, as the last limper before the Mississippi straddle, I should have close to no over-pairs in my range, and certainly more sixes than he does given he limps from SB. Really, the only overpair that I might limp in this spot is 88, although I probably raise it 50-60%+ of the time. 99 I would raise probably 80-90% and TT+ I raise 100% of the time here.

Also, in reference to those suggesting that I am scared money here, that is certainly not true. I am up ~ 60 buy-ins in this game in the past year and have made 11K in it over the last month, putting in only 80 hours. Obv running well, but my point is I am definitely not scared money, I just don't like putting in $650 drawing dead, even if I do have the second nuts.

As I said earlier, if you are not scared money then I think this hand shows that your instincts are very good and you should be happy relying on them. Your results certainly indicate you are getting it right more often than not.

All those pps in your range are still bluff catchers even though the 3rd 6 makes his trip sixes less likely. Your river raise is polarizing (and as mentioned you are at the bottom of your river value raising range). I mean raising 88 OTR here would be turning it into a bluff against all but the worst villains.

When he comes over the top it's quad sixes like always because he's thinking you are never folding a value hand worthy of a river raise and bluff raising rivers is so rare. so he's swinging for the fence with 6x. He's not 3! Bluff raising the river here... Unless you caught his 2-5% spazz. And your not getting odds to call for that.

I've seen this situation numerous times (most recently btm straight flush when K river brought 1liner to sf - A or 9). The 9 4! In a spot I thought was a questionable call of a 3! Let alone 4!.

whenever the 3rd bet gets called in these spots someone has the nuts usually.

I am glad that you said this and I agree with you 110%. If one does not hear and consider alternative viewpoints from one's own, they get nowhere.

He probably had A6 and was telling you he had the 7 to get you to call in the future. If you played as you repped the 6, he could only logically make such a move if

A) he was a total ******

B) He had the 6, But then again, would he show a Quad for a high hand if your casino had one?

Fold is good IMO but it will bother you for quite a while..
I would have overbet the flop to get more $$$ in, any A6 is most likely not folding there anyway. The 6 on the turn happened to ruin your action.

Results?

I think the OP folded.

As people have said before me, you played that river as bad as you could. When that's said: I'd call it off.

So you're advocating a flat call on the river? Just to be clear?

Before I raise I always ask myself what will i do if villian reraises. Thinking about that before your river raise would have made this hand much easier to play.so if I raise here I'm calling any reraise.

While your average (bad) $2-5 table might laugh at you for "playing scared", just remember when you are right you'll also get to look like a wizard (to them) when you show you lost the minimum with top full house (if you want to show). Then you can tell them very seriously you saw your opponent's neck pulse speed up on the turn and "knew he had it", which will terrify everyone and make you a local legend.

(This post was made using comedy.)

Logic 101..Sometimes you have to trust your gut. When playing with a guy for several hours, you get a feel for his play and hand strength. While I consider myself an ok poker player for $1/$2 where I frequent, I would not have a problem laying down a hand like this if I had a fairly good read on a guys hand strength. Sometimes making a call or raise because the math dictates, is setting money on fire.

Perfect example is laying down AA to a guy who bets a wet flop and the turn completes and you just know he has been playing his flush and straight draws aggressively all night. Then he does something out of the norm and 3 bets..Bells go off.

I have saved myself more money folding than trying to chase value that simply was not there.

As played I could justify a call of a value bet on the river, not a RR or calling a RR.

If I have quads, I am never checking the turn, that's missing way too much value, especially when you probably have a FH or OCs to make one. I think this is an easy call and never -EV.

If you were afraid of quads then yes I advocate a flat call on the initial bet he made on the river BUT when that's said, in the given situation I would call his all in raise anyway.

I totally disagree.

I would always check monsters like quads and straight flushes for people to catch up and make them make a stupid bet for me to raise.

Sick level

Grunch

OMG bet the turn, like seriously OMG.

Prob. just call the river. Not sure how much value there is in a raise. If you raise def. have to fold to a 3 bet.

I think I just threw up a little when I read this.

When he said he had the seven of spades, you should have responded "no you didn't, because I did."

Irrespective of if you or he actually had it, his reaction would give SOMETHING away.