I was reading back through HOC Vol I today, and I found a couple of problem examples that seemed interesting to me. I wanted to get a sense of what everyone else thinks about one of these plays.

Hand 3-8 on p. 183 describes a live 5/10 game where we start with $1850 UTG + 1 and an aggressive villain sits in HJ with $2400. We limp/call with 4 4 when villain preflop raises to $40 (not the author's advice; he is describing a hand as played). Flop comes A 9 4. We check/call villain's $70 c-bet. Turn comes J. We lead for $170, villain raises to $500. The author now recommends calling for 3:1 odds with the intention of leading the river for a small amount and folding to a raise, since it now looks as though we are peddling the nuts and any value raise from villain has to be a higher set.

I do realize that Harrington is describing a 5-10 game against a competent opponent, so I'm not saying that I would apply this to players in small stakes who are capable of overvaluing two pair. But against a thinking opponent, would a lot of people lay down bottom set in a HU pot in which we have donked both turn and river? We are showing a lot of strength on those streets, so I can understand the thinking that we are getting called by two pair but getting raised only by AA/99. The trouble is that bet/folding that river means turning down 3:1 odds when some villains can think AJ is ahead of A9 and some others will turn A X into a bluff.

Thoughts?

I wouldn't fold it. My rate of folding sets on boards that don't have four to a straight or flush is approximately zero. It's worked out pretty well so far.

The line should be flat c/r turn then fold to a raise after leading river.

Bet folding a set on the river on that board described seems very bad. I don't play 5/10 but how the hand was played on the flop (very deceptively) would make bet folding the river really weak tight. The turn donk bet getting raised is cause for concern but doesn't narrow V range to just AA and 99 (can't rule out JJ due to the called c bet). I think after the turn if we are willing to bet fold we should just check to induce a bluff are a weaker value bet. It would be a disgusting spot to have to bet fold.

Don't get me wrong I have folded sets on dry boards but only when possible straights are on the board and depending how V plays etc. if we had check raised the flop and the turn action went the same, donk bet then a raise I could maybe advocate a bet fold on the river but doubtful. I would assume most players are happy getting 200 bb in with bottom set on that kinda board but this is just one opinion.

Opponent would have to be pretty horrible to fold here...