I meant 3-bet jamming on the turn. It would be weird to jam 550 into a 200 pot, guaranteeing that you'll only get looked up by QQ.

He could have 3-bet AhQh, hoping to get heads up with you, and could check the flop with TPTK when there were 3 callers pre flop to evaluate.

Also, if it's 1/3, opening to 20 seems a little on the larger side with 88. I get that you had two limpers but still, it's a large open and allows 3-bettors to bet larger.

I'm skeptical that 44 would 3-bet at this table. With the table dynamic, it's very unlikely to get through as a bluff and basically have to hit a set for this play to be profitable.

The range I gave him is QQ, AhKh, Ah3h, Ah2h, JhTh, and 76s. Against this range I have 40% equity, so not a favorite but probably still enough to GII. I think I probably made an incorrect fold in a vacuum but all of his tells were signaling strength here.

Okay, yes I agree that my only reasonable choices here are 3-bet jam or fold.

I'm still totally unclear on why you think AhQh would check the flop to "evaluate?" It's literally one of the best flops they could hope for (TPTK) and I think they'd be betting it 100% of the time.

Disagree on the open size though—given stack sizes and general table dynamic, any open less than $20 was getting called in 5-6 places. The average stack was over 200BB. I'm not varying my bet size with the strength of my holding, so I'd be making the same bet with AA.

Believe it or not this is yet another thing I keep track of. I only started tracking it at the beginning of 2018.

So far in 2018 Ive set mined 347 times and hit 36 sets.

Ive lost $4705 set mining and folding the flop
Ive won $6990 when I flopped a set while set mining

Ive also won $2305 in 59 hands that I continued post flop even though I had called the raise with the intention of set mining with a small to mid pp.

You're right though. Most people have no idea because they dont keep track of anything.

I think a 3 bet with 44 when quite deep like this is ok. It can get the pot heads up in position and take it down with a c bet on a large % of flops. (But I’d still only put 1 or 2 combos of it in equity machine for the reason you give . But you’ll have a better feel for the dynamics of this particular game/this player

I agree he’d bet 90% of the time with AhQh on that flop.

I do feel that QQ should (and would) bet some amount against 3 players on the flop, so I do think you are overestimating it by assuming a full 3 combos of QQ

I think you can add in at least a couple more draws like AhJh

How have you signaled the strength of your hand? You checked flop and bet turn. You're massively underrepped right now, at the very top of a (wide) turn-bet range where you should be betting a lot - and you yourself said you have a fishy/loose image.

He can think you have ~QTish hand (your most likely holding) and try to bet you off it.

How many hours have you played with this guy? A 'read' (impression) is not enough for me to fold this. I'd need to know this guy well that he truly only shows up with 3 combos here. A fold is nothing short of MUBS here

OP is in denial he played this hand badly, coming up on the bargaining stage of grief and loss.

Yeah, gotta get it in.

The times you get set over set shouldn't even be a blip on your radar.

I know it's very MUBSY but honestly this guy was playing a very tight game. I really only gave him credit for 2-3 combos of heart draws and the 3 queen combos, which isn't a range I'm loving my odds against.

For those interested in results:

I have to agree that this hand sounds tragic. If you can find a fold here I don't think you should be set mining. Set over set happens but not nearly enough to make this hand a profitable fold AP. I'm definitely 3 bet jamming this turn. If he has the QQ, god bless him. You haven't shown much strength at all by flatting pre , checking flop, and putting in one strong bet.

You mean you're sure you'd have HIS whole stack unless he finds an A on the river...

You saved money this time but if you fold sets like this you will lose untold sums of money long term. There is no hand in poker that makes more money than a set. You should almost never fold one for this amount of money without there being an obvious flush or straight

Just chiming in, usually never post but I lurk a lot. This hand caught my eye because I think it’s a very 1/3 spot. I see this a lot.

For starters, I 3-bet 67 suited occasionally in position. . I think protecting your 3.bet range is critical in low stakes nl and not enough players have an optimal 3-bet strategy. Since 4-bets at these stakes are usually incredibly nutted, and a lot of strong hands play better as flats in position (AK), I like to 3-bet pretty much anything I would peel to an open. I actually think there’s a very good chance V does has 67 in this spot in addition to QQ.

I get why people are saying you have to call, but so much of the big pots in 1/3 are comprised of these sorts of coolers. (Overpair vs set, set vs set, etc) that a fair amount of what separates break even/small winners from crushers is understanding these spots and making the tougher folds. The way I look at it is this- in this spot he’s gotta extract value from his overpairs and AQ on the flop. V also sounds like a solid player from your description, he probably has a balanced 3-bet range and a balanced cbet/check range. On this flop he’s gotta c bet his weaker value range (top pairs/overpairs), and check his draws, protecting them with the top end of his value range. I think that the fact he was fine letting this check through on the flop kinda polarizes his holding into nutted hands and draws.

The raise to me is what’s fascinating, probably sizing up for a river jam, but it also seems like both QQ and 67 can call here to keep bluffs in without really forfeiting much value or equity. There really aren’t that many bad rivers for him, not really even ones that will kill action. That says to me that he’s ranged you onto a hand that you’ll rip it in with and wants to play for stacks. What he thinks of your hand here says a lot about his.

I think this is a dope ass fold. You can’t make it very often for obvious reasons, but I like it here. Props.

Remember V has to believe that H doesn't have QQ in his range if V doesn't have QQ. With that stated I would probably end up getting it down to the felt with a set of 8s. Too many irrational plays made by players to convince it isn't worth getting my money in the center.

Don't be results oriented, think about range.

I ran an equity calculator.

"Best case - Scenario A"
With a range for him of
2 combos of QQ (discounted from 3 combos cos we assume 33% of the time he bets flop with QQ)
2 combos of 44 (discounted from 3 cos we assume he's not raising pre with 44 on 33% of occasions).
2 combos of 67s (discounted from 4 cos we assume he's not raising pre with 67s on 50% of occasions).
7 draw combos (AhKh, AhJh, AhTh, JhTh, Th9h, Ah3h, Ah2h)

Gives Hero 58.2% equity. Clearly huge +EV in playing on.

"Pessimistic case - Scenario B"
All 3 combos of QQ
Only 1 combo of 44
Only 1 combo of 67s (6d7d)
Only 4 draw combos (AhKh, AhJh, Ah3h, Ah2h)

Gives Hero 50.9% equity. Clearly strongly +EV in playing on.

"Very pessimistic - Scenario C"
All 3 combos of QQ
No combos of 44
No combos of 67s
Only 3 draw combos (AhKh, AhJh, Ah3h)

Gives Hero 38.2% equity. I'd guess this still makes for good +EV in playing on (but someone else can check the exact math!)

"Extremely pessimistic - Scenario D"
All 3 combos of QQ
No combos of 44
No combos of 67s
Only 1 draw combo (AhKh)

Gives Hero 27.3% equity. I guess we've finally found a -EV scenario (someone else can check the exact math!) but I think this is much too pessimistic a scenario.

---
I'd GII.

this and this.

stacking off here every time unless I absolutely know that my V has top set.

kudos to you for taking the time to log all of those hands into your poker tracker. having that kind of data to peruse through gives you such a clear picture of your game.

and you seem to be running a bit on the low side of flopped sets.

Listen to Mike here as he is 100% correct. And this comes from a guy (me) who has lost 3 of his last 4 flopped sets to set over set. You need to be extremely deep in a 3b pot to consider letting go of middle set here.

I would have jammed the turn and gotten stacked. I probably also lead the flop a good % of the time to start building as you might even get a call from AK on that first street.

Even though I made the correct fold from a results perspective, I actually think I played this hand incorrectly—especially *after* he flipped over QQ.

I think this V only voluntarily shows top set here because he also has plenty of semi-bluff heart draws in his range here and wants to increase the fold equity on them in the future. My pessimistic evaluation of him having only AhKh in his semibluff range was likely far too pessimistic and I should've been stacking off here.