Horseshoe Hammond, IN $1/2 about an 1.5 hrs into the session

When I sit down, foreign guy three to my right is really drunk. He's slurring to the point where I can't even tell what nationality he is. Couple other guys drinking at the table too (Chicago pd), it's an absolutely fantastic game and they're all on my right. I have one bullet.

The babbling drunk guy is really nice and somewhat funny; we're all talking at the table and everyone is relaxed and having fun. He's playing a ton of hands, calling out of position almost all raises but he's not opening a lot. He's opened a few times for $10 but no 3 bets. He's had no problem putting the money in post with a draw/marginal hand... he's been very lucky and has at least tripled up. However, I couldn't categorize his play as completely terrible. I could go on and on about what a drunken scene it truly was, but you'll have to use your imagination.

Given the table I'm opening pretty wide ($10-7), have made a number of small folds, won a couple small hands with no showdown, payed a couple guys off small, and have folded to a raise or two. I've been LAG for the table next to the drunk, I've got $170.

With QQ utg I raise to $10, one MP call, and drunk guy on the button looks at his cards, pauses for a second, and does the "I think I'm gonna have to raise" routine, pauses again and makes it $62 to go.

Solve for hero

Honestly I would just get it in right now. If he has KK or AA that sucks but he is a drunk who seems willing to gamble and could definitely call it off with way worse.

I'm sure it shouldn't but this is where my thought process would be different if I had 3 bullets vs 1. With his speech and prior betting you would think its TT+

With 3 bullets I'm prepared to fire one.

With one bullet I need to think whether there's a better spot ahead in which case it's a fold.

Disclaimer: I'm very average at this game.....

Confident I have very close to zero fold equity

That's also the range I put him on initially. But for someone making so many calls pre, that range might be wide.

This is the number 1 reason why i hate having only 1 bullet.
drunk guy seems like a calling station, when CS start talking and raising I am usually folding.
you only got 1 bullet so I would just fold and move on off course when i do this they flip over jacks
bring more bullets if you going to play poker, if you start to worryabout this kind of stuff then you will be losing money were ypu should be raking it in.

I've been there before, playing with one bullet. Given that this seems to be a very profitable table, the drunk has yet to make a big 3-bet like this, and that you have no rebuys, I'd fold. It sucks and it's probably the wrong play, but I'd fold.

Back when I was younger and had no BR, I ran into these situations a lot. Sometimes you have to make "wrong" or -EV decisions to give yourself a chance to make money over the course of the session. Playing with one bullet sometimes leaves you playing a tournament style where avoiding high variance situations and picking more favorable spots becomes more important. On the bright side, with your description of V it sounds like it wouldn't be too difficult to get him to open up and let you know what he had. That way you get some info if you end up in a similar spot later on.

Snap shove has to be standard here

Min raise or call could also be reasonable if we think its the best way to win more, we may also find folds on a few flops (mostly when an ace hits) if we trust our reads

The answer to this is always the same. Determine the bottom of his range. Then calculate your equity against his entire range. Then continue if you have a positive expectation.

Snap shove.

If you can't reload/top off, then there's no point in playing a cash game.

Was at the casino randomly, didn't have my atm card with me. Sucked shipped against AA... Was a bad play. Patience is a virtue.

Yeah it's a fold. Not everyone gets super loose for big bets when they're hammered.

The table was racing to get the guys money so got caught up in that a little. 2/3 of his most likely holdings I'm in terrible shape against.

Another mistake I made in this hand is getting caught up in my LAG image. Have to remember, nobody cares. Especially when the big bets come out.

At a fishy table people aren't countering your tendencies the vast majority of the time; they're just playing their cards.

KK is a snap shove. JJ is a snap fold. QQ you vomit.

This is one of those spots where neither folding nor shoving can be that bad. I'd try to talk with him, get a read. Barring that I probably hate myself and shove.

Drunk guy, QQ, 85 bb's effective. Gotta get it in. And I wouldn't worry about the results.

Those who are saying snap shove with QQ are overvaluing the drunk aspect of this. There are passive drunks and loose drunks. If you've never seen someone three bet before you have to assume they are doing it with a relatively narrow range. That range could include JJ, AK, etc but it almost never is stuff like 9-10s, 33, etc.

So even though a shove is reasonable here it certainly isn't a no brainer.

Blows my mind how many people think QQ is an instant shove here. Played with the guy for an hour and a half, raised a lot to 10, but never once has he 3 bet.... Now the guy all of a sudden 3 bets is to $62.00 and you guys think it's a snap? lol I'd say worst/ most likely case AA,KK and probably best case AK... which is a basic coin flip, and the guy only has one bullet.... It sucks, but I'm folding, and waiting for a better spot, you only lost $10.00 and with the drunken craziness it seems this table is, and not a lot of 3 betting, there should be better spots to get your money in.

There are a couple things I could've explained better:

It should've read, he's had no problem putting the money in post with a draw/making big calls oop with marginal hands... My original post made it sound like he was reraising with second pair or something, that wasn't the case.

This is the key point. Had he truly been playing LAG (which I probably made it sound like originally), then yeah I agree, it can't be a mistake shipping. But he was playing loose/passive, and there really is a big difference there.

It's one of those spots where, I had been playing fast to capitalize if/when I had a strong hand, so when it gets around to the drunk, and I'm praying he makes another loose call, and instead he makes 62 to go, I'm too geeked up to think logically and make the best play and just shrug ship (although my play style has probably zero bearing on his 6x 3 betting %)

The guy hadn't reraised once pre, and with all the calls he'd made, he'd had many playable hands by his standard... But now he's making a huge 3 bet? Am I really supposed to put him on JJ here let alone <1010? I don't think with the info I had I can take him off AK, and JJ is a possibility, but he's not making this play with JJ every time. I think it's somewhat close but decidedly a fold, and I'm not being results oriented. I felt sick as soon as he raised and shrug shipped because "this is impossible," but no it's not, and the money went in real bad... Not just against his holding but his range too.