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folded bottom set on flop folded bottom set on flop

02-16-2015 , 11:27 AM
1/2.

mp opens to 10, i call with 77 in hj, btn and bb both call.

4 to flop ($40): J87tt. pfr leads for 12, i raise to 37, btn min pops me to 75, bb and pfr both fold, action to me.

38 to call, pot is now at 164 = needing about 19%
villain had about 100 behind after the raise and i covered.
he was fairly loose/passive preflop, but in a couple hours had only raised twice postflop, both times he had the nuts. a cold 3bet on the flop and i put him on a range of 88/JJ/T9 and not much else. in game, i thought that if he had the T9 (both more likely combinatorically and b/c the sets would be discounted some based on that they aren't the nuts), i probably have the odds to call to see the turn even though im not getting a good enough price immediately, i will surely have some implied odds on river. but, factoring in the smaller possibility that i may already be drawing dead to the 88/JJ combos and i decided to fold.

thoughts?
folded bottom set on flop Quote
02-16-2015 , 11:43 AM
You're essentially getting the right price to get it all in here even if he shows you the straight. Never folding here to villain who sounds like not a very good player. Sometimes villain has 2 pair here. Sometimes he is just misplaying his hand. I don't know what tt on the flop means but if it means two tone then villain could have flush draws as well but essentially I am getting it in in this spot regardless.
folded bottom set on flop Quote
02-16-2015 , 11:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NeverLosesAtPoker
You're essentially getting the right price to get it all in here even if he shows you the straight. Never folding here to villain who sounds like not a very good player. Sometimes villain has 2 pair here. Sometimes he is just misplaying his hand. I don't know what tt on the flop means but if it means two tone then villain could have flush draws as well but essentially I am getting it in in this spot regardless.
yes, i meant two-tone by "tt".. there was one spade and two diamonds. i considered that it could be some sort of 2pair or combo draw, but i had seen those types of hands being played very passively all day, so i heavily discounted them, almost to the point of eliminating them. maybe that was too big of a reaction to too small of a sample?

now that i look at it, you're right. im getting a price that requires about 34% equity to get all-in and im about 34% equity vs. T9. so, that play would be break-even if he had the nuts.

if you throw in some combos of higher sets, my equity drops below the 34% required to get all in. but, if you throw in some combos of 2 pair, my equity climbs back up. overall, id say getting all-in would be somewhat break-even on average.
folded bottom set on flop Quote
02-16-2015 , 11:58 AM
is the J a diamond?
folded bottom set on flop Quote
02-16-2015 , 12:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by IbelieveinChipKelly
is the J a diamond?
you know, i can't remember for sure which two were the diamonds.. but i think it was the 8 and 7. why? more top pair + flush draw combos in his range if J wasn't a diamond? that your thoughts?
folded bottom set on flop Quote
02-16-2015 , 12:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lovethyneighbor
you know, i can't remember for sure which two were the diamonds.. but i think it was the 8 and 7. why? more top pair + flush draw combos in his range if J wasn't a diamond? that your thoughts?
yes
folded bottom set on flop Quote
02-16-2015 , 07:05 PM
I think the worst fold I ever made in a 1/2 NL game was when I folded bottom set on the flop on a dangerous board after I bet, someone raised and someone else reraised. The winner showed top pair and I felt like vomiting.

I wonder what the chances are this villain raises the flop with QQ. Passive players often won't 3-bet with it pf.
folded bottom set on flop Quote
02-16-2015 , 07:28 PM
PF: Not sure the effective stack, so can't comment about calling with 77. We know button has $185.

F: Pot is $40. SPR with button is about 4. MP leads for $12. LOL! We raise to $37. Good!

I'm not folding a set even with this wet board for 92bb

Shove!
folded bottom set on flop Quote
02-17-2015 , 10:39 AM
i am never folding a set with shallow stacks. people can over value top two pair in this limit. If i am beat.. so be it. he might turn over 910 here. then also we have 25% chance. i am pushing here and he is snap calling here for sure. if he is lucky enough to flop a good hand when i flop a set, i would call it a cold deck.
folded bottom set on flop Quote

      
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