I get a lot of good advice/replies when I post hand so thanks to all involved. It does seem like one reply I get pretty often when I post hands about pocket pairs is "fold pre, you aren't deep enough to set-mine".

Can someone explain in simple terms wheat that means and how I figure that out at the table? In the 1/3 game I see it seems the biggest pots are won with a set v TP because a lot of players just can't fold TP.

A game like that is only going to be SO deep when the buyin is 100BB's so I'm curious what the stack sizes need to be for me to play a small-mid pocket pair out of position, or in position for that matter.

Thank you

The odds of flopping a set when we hold a pocket pair are 1:7.5. So say we're calling 5 BB to see a flop. To break even, we need to win on average 7.5*5 = 37.5 BB the times when we hit our set.

Of course we won't always get the rest of the villain's stack when we hit, and this is where it matters how deep the effective stack is. If all players have 200 BB behind, we only need to get the other player's stack about 20% of the time with our set. If everyone only has 80 BB, we need to win their entire stack almost half the time. And if they have less than 37.5 BB, our call loses money overall even if we stack the villain every time we hit our set.

Add to that some margin of error because villain won't always have TP+, won't always stack off with a single pair, hero won't always be able to get stacks in and hero won't always have the best hand by the river. You can also shave a little off that margin if villain is weak and you will be able to at least recover what you paid preflop with bluffs a lot.

Generally you want to be able to win at least 15X what you are calling, even more against good players. I will go as low as 10X against the best targets in a good situation but a lot of good players will not go that low.

In his book Harrington on Cash Vol 1, Dan Harrington recommended a requirement of a 20:1 ratio between villain's stack and the bet you're calling. I've seen online poker coaches call for a higher ratio like 25:1 since online players now have a higher skill level and can get away from bad spots more than they could in the mid 2000s.

That said, if it's a live game and you think they suck (particularly when it comes to overvaluing hands and doing stuff like making huge cbets with KK on ace high flops) I think 15:1 is sufficient.


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Usually when you see a guy win a huge pot after flopping a set versus an overpair, especially if it was a 3bet pot, he likely made a significantly -EV calling mistake preflop.

But he scooped a monster and that’s all you’ll remember. That is variance hiding fundamental leaks.

Yeah you want somewhere between 15/20-1 to set mine (maybe a little less if IP and a little more if OOP). So in practice, if someone raises to $15 in a $2/$5 game pre, you want to call with a small/mid pp if the raiser (and you) have ~$275-300 behind.

The name of the veteran poster, who did an in-depth analysis of online databases & was a well respected coach, escapes me. I'm not even sure it's him that claims you have to win 15x your preflop investment, when you flop a set with 22-66, to make up for those times that you flop a set & still lose.

I use that rule when OOP in multi-way pots. I trim it down when IP & it's HU or 3 way.

I will make this story as short as possible: tale end of a session & I get 66 three times in like 2 orbits & don't hit a set. Don't think nothing much of it until the next day when I come in, get 66 twice in like 1 orbit & miss.

So, I start tracking 66 by texting myself every time I get it. This is TRUE: I was dealt 66 48 times before I flopped a set & then lost to a 4 card str8 on the river. It was not until the 62nd time I got 66 that I flopped a set & just so happens I was lucky to win a healthy pot. However, it wasn't enough to make up the losses.

Now there were a few times I didn't flop a set but was able to see the turn & hit my 2 outter for a set & won those, but it wasn't a lot of money.

Keep in mind that was just with 66. There were times I flopped a set with 22-55 & won & times I flopped & lost with those hands, but I did not keep track of them.

I am a firm believer that if it is multi-way & you are playing the small pocket pairs just as a set-mine, you need to make 15x your preflop investment to yield a long-term profit.

+1

The more I play, and the less payoff people are (OP's table perhaps sounds different?), the more I question whether setmining (especially HU) is profitable against most players.

Posters above have made some good points about some other considerations, but they've missed a few points which cannot be ignored.

1) Sometimes we flop a set and lose, and when we lose, we typically lose our stack, which has a devastating affect on the overall EV of setmining. Heck, even if we get stacks in with our set vs an overpair on the flop we'll still lose about 10% of the time (when our opponent hits their set by the river or runner runners a straight/flush).

2) Sometimes we end up putting money in postflop when we don't hit our set. Obviously we use our hand reading skills as best we can to attempt to figure out when we should be doing this, but if we don't do a great job of this it will also cut into our "setmining" EV.

3) I use this example all the time. You're sitting in a 1/3 NL game and EP raises. You have 55. You and your opponent both have $1 million stacks. So super easy setmining spot given our IO of 50,000x (which is quite a lot better than the recommended 25x1, right? Oh, but your opponent is Phil Ivey. Still a super easy setmining spot?

If your sitting at a table full of morons and a lot of them are going to see the flop with you, then setmining is undoubtedly going to be profitable. But if you're seeing a flop HU (especially OOP), or the one or two others you're seeing a flop with aren't morons, setmining is likely not going to be nearly as profitable as you think it is (regardless of stack sizes).

Gsetminingishighlymisunderstood,imoG

So just like everything else in poker, 'it depends'.

We should adjust our required odds to set mine based on the table we currently sit at.

If you're at a table where 15:1 isn't enough because you feel the players are too competent, and people won't pay off a set with TPTK at 80-100BB, the answer isn't to stop set mining with 22-77, but to find a better game, imo.

Set mining is of course a play, but there are lots of opportunities to merge into a bluff based on action. 2 streets of moderate aggression with a mid pocket pair on an Axx or Kxx board usually will do it. Target drier boards so V is more likely to range you as made vs drawing.

If your sets are not getting paid off, you likely are not bluffing enough or "Nits" are not as tight as you think when opening pre. You never pay off V when he xr turn b/c lol he obv has it, and Abc's are thinking the same way about you. IMO 3betting them is more profitable then flatting in these games.

I have started folding 22-66 much more often in most games and haven't regretted it. Save them for deep splashy games with lots of multiway action.

Thank you all for the replies. I have a better understanding of the situation.

I realize I am certainly guilty of remembering the nice pot wins when my set gets paid off, but forgetting all the $12/$15 that I spent along the way when I missed.

Good stuff, thanks.

I think you're kinda missing the point if you think those are the pots that matter.

Calling $12/15 to see a flop with 33, whiffing and giving up is normal, what you should be remembering are the flops where you hit your set on an AQ3 rainbow board multiway and somehow don't get paid at least 40BB.

That usually means you made a sizing or an action mistake somewhere.

Or could have simply run into KK/JJ/TT that didn't feel great about this flop.

Gopponentdependent,imoG

What I'm remembering is that I flopped sets in back to back hands last session played for stacks in both hands (short stacks, but still) and held up. One was QQ so it wasn't really set mining, I was ahead the whole time. But the second was 22. I factor in the 15:1 rule when set mining as well FWIW.

Again, thank you.

Not to derail the good math discussion on set-mining, just wanted layer in the equity factor your pp has on certain textures. Here is a simplistic example to take advantage of:

100 bbs effective
ABC-type MP opponent opens to 5 bbs, folds to Hero on BTN with 66, who calls. HU to flop of 754r. PFR cbets 6 bbs, Hero calls. Turn is Tx, PFR checks to Hero who bets 12 bbs, PFR folds.

I generally think anticipating 10x your investment when you flop a set is enough to justify the call, but effective stack sizes aren't always enough to anticipate that. You need to really consider player tendencies and their opening ranges. Some players are going to c-bet way more often than others and so you can afford to set mine against them more than you could against the old guy who is going to pot control with his top pair. obviously as mentioned, position helps a great deal when reaching that 10x + roi.

What kind of data did you use to arrive at your conclusion of 10x being sufficient? What about just small PPs - 22-55 & small/medium PPs 22-99?

When i have a pair of 2s and they make it 20 pre in 1/2 I just fold. With 8s I call the raise, but not if they're a small stack. Unfortunately, if i raise with 88 to 12 and then make it 40 I just fold. Maybe that's not GTO but that's how I play it.

When I have 22 & V makes it $20 pre in 1/2NL, I fold, unless I see potential to make $300 easy if I flop a set AND I'm in LP. So we need large stacks, or players willing to commit with an over-pair.

Or, it's going to be HU & I believe I have a skill advantage over my V AND I can take away the initiative on a lot of flops AND of course I have position

In other words: it happens slightly more often than those months where we have 2 full moons in a calendar year.