Early into a new game at casino, 1-2NL

I am trying to play more loose aggressive. Villain is 30ish, played more hands than anyone so far. He donk bet into me on the turn in one hand, where I had raised pre with 86s and continuation bet with a flush draw. I folded to his donk bet.

Other hand I saw him play: He slowplayed a set and made bet on river, which was called. Other guy probably had a big pair.

Stacks: Me, $200ish
Villain, $400ish


Current hand:

I get AKo in the big blind. One guy raised to 8 and 3 guys call. I raise to $35. Only one caller and it is the villain. He had called the 8 dollar raise. He was in the CO.

Pot is 70. Flop comes 456

I c-bet $40. He looks at me, thinks, and raises to $100.

Do you fold after investing $70, and having only $115 behind?

Prob 0 fold equity but your only options are to fold or ship.

Looks like your drawing thin looks like pp.
Loose agro ships
Abc folds

Pot is around 95 otf.

It's not about how much you've invested that should determine your decision here. That mindset is just a way rec players justify getting it in when they know they're beat. Your decision is based on your equity in the pot, and any fe you might have.

Since you likely have very little of both, this is an easy fold

You are not likely to get him to fold - his hand seems like an overpair (as in over 654). So no reason to shove. I believe this is an easy fold.

IF, you somehow knew his hand was no better than TT (i.e. he does not have a set or a pair+ straight draw, or reverse dominated like A6).. IF we knew he had TT specifically:

Pot is 16 + 35 + 35 + 40 + 40 + 60 = 226, and awaiting you 60 call...

Meaning you only need 60 / (226+60) = ~21% equity to call.

If you can count on implied odds of making $115 more if you hit an A or K, then you only need:
60 / (226 + 60 + 115) = ~15% to call....

Bad news though, even if he had that bottom part of his range, you only have 6 outs / 45 cards on the turn = 13.3% to hit.

This is a fold.

Thanks for the replies

I love when bip answers!!!
He's like a mad odds/equity scientist