Table has been quite gambly and many pots inflate quickly due to what seems to be pure ego! 1/2 game.

UTG min raises to $4 (Very odd for this table, typical PF raise is $10+)
2 players call his raise, also odd as 3b were plentiful tonight!!
Hero has K4 on the button and calls as both blinds tend keep it cheap.

SB folds, BB folds: $18 after the rake

Flop comes 78J

UTG leads out for $30, folds to hero...

He only has $40 behind and I am pretty confident has hit the board...


This would give me ~45% equity if I'm correct...the implied odds are there but the current are not? (Am I correct in thinking I would need to win 62.5% for the current odds to be justified? Is this the proper way to think about this?)

Am I close here, help me through how to think about this!

First of all, everyone is going to say this but fold pre. He is way too short for you to try to purely overflush him, which is what you're basically doing with this hand. It's much too thin. Also, if 3b has been rampant you might not even get to the flop with the blinds yet to act.

OTF you're at BEST 12 outs here. You're getting 1.5 to 1 on a call, so that's obviously not enough. Let's look at implied odds. You're basically going to call $70 to win $88 since he's never folding at this point. You need 1.2:1 for you call to be profitable, which you are basically getting. The problem is that your K might not be good, reducing your outs to 9. It's Neutral EV at best to continue on with this hand, so over time you're going to lose money here.

Pre is whatever. I don't mind playing a hand like K4s OTB for 2BB when we've got some light preceding action. The only thing I'd say is that when someone does something odd, like min-raise UTG when that's far from standard, your inner car alarm needs to be going off. So while normally I'd be more interested in trying to capture some dead money by raising, I'd hate getting LRR'd and that looks like a possibility whenever I see the UTG min. So flat or fold, either's OK. Folding maybe a bit better.

Post is just LOL. We've gotta fold now - our over isn't good here very often, and we might be on reduced flush outs, but look at it this way - if it were a KKx, 44x, K4x or monotone diamond board, we just made $98 off our $4 investment.

Those boards don't come very often, so they're not worth putting in $4 just to try to hit them, but we also didn't necessarily expect V to pile in 2x pot otf. Sometimes poker's unexpected, and that's ok.

UTG ended up having 8d9d, showing after the whole table folded around. How do you feel about his play? Isn't his line kinda horrible each time he had the chance to play? Or considering the loose action, does he know something I don't?

Your only saving grace here is that you are last to act. You dont really give us any information about yourself or the bettor here. Was this a tilted guy coming off a bad beat. What is your stack and how do you normally play. Do you want to 'drum' up some business by showing a loose shove here?

Different players have different views on these types of plays:
1) Your risk is limited, so why not? Sounds like you know the possibilites here .. do you gamble? Will he reload for a full stack and spew that to the table?

2) He is too short, so why put chips in (probably) bad and give him a free double. Are you going to get these chips back from him soon .. or is he a nit?

This certainly isnt the best situation and we constantly see where making one questionable decision leads to more .. (calling in the first place to a 'trappy' type of bet).

In a TOURNAMENT sense this is a 'easy' call most of the time ... It's a few too many BB but a suited KX will go after a short stack quite often if they have a deep enough stack to do so.

Cash game poker is about taking advantage of edges. If he turns his hand over and its 89 of hearts (no flush draw) you are 44% to win. You lose $5 more to the rake, right? So you are putting in $70 to win $83. 70/153 is 46%. Are you in 'business' to break even?

You are not 'pot committed'. You are not 'priced in'. He is not folding (and you are not just calling) so 'current' odds are really not a factor. If you want to look at them ... Is a short stack really going to pay your off if you just call and hit the flush. Only if he has a flush draw himself. If you want to flat here, then you are basically calling 1.5 to 1 when you hit your flush less than 25% of the time ... not good poker.

Your implied odds are as stated above ... BEST case you are 44% to win here assumming he has 'something'. You are 70% if he shows up with an open-ender, but how often is that going to happen? We need to know more about this guy for that to be a factor.

End of story is why put chips into the pot to break even over time? You lose to the rake in the long haul. But there is a small portion of each of us that likes to gamble, eh? What's your goal when playing? If you want to take a 'small' gamble, then so be it up to you to decide that of course. GL

Thank you for the great response, I'm in 'business' to find huge edges; especially in games like this!!! Thank you so much for your analysis.