Hey everyone,

Been lurking for a little while and wanted to start upping my game so I'm going to be posting a good amount in the future on different topics. I started playing more consistently last month 5-6 days/week (been playing since the 00's in college with the poker boom) and want to try and improve in my 1/2 game and move up to 2/5 as soon as it makes sense. Thought I'd start with an easy one and get some opinions:

New to the table and buy in is capped at 200 which is my stack. V1 is MAWG with $800+ and I've seen him before and plays pretty ABC poker.

Hero - AA UTG
V2 - EP
V1 - MP
1/2 blinds and I raise AhAD to $11.
V2 calls
V1 calls
Flop KQc5c ($30)
I bet $25, V2 folds, V1 raises to $75.
My read for this poker room: V1 will have 2 pair here 95% of the time and KcXc 5% of the time. I don't even think a set would raise here very often based on my V1 read.

So my first question, is folding AA here too nitty? I'm certainly tight, but how often do you let this go just based on a read?

I think about it and call the $50.

Turn is 3d. ($180)

My reasoning for calling is he could be on the big flush draw, or wants to protect his 2 pair from the flush draw if he puts me on KcXc (which is possible) so I could feasibly bluff a club on the turn. I also think I get paid in full if he gets counterfeited.

I check and he puts me all in for my remaining $115. I'm getting almost 3:1 on 8 outs of a worst case scenario of 2 pair and am still ahead in the slight chance he has KcXc. I call (is this too much fuzzy math for this spot?).

River blank.

Didn't read how to insert a spoiler, but I don't think it really even matters on this hand. He had KQ and won. The question really came down to do you ever fold on a solid read on the flop?

Marsh

You don't need a spoiler to not include results.....

Just leave it at ai ott for 115. H?

How can you say he has 2pr 95% of the time but never a set? He definitely has all 3 combos of 55 and hardly any K5 or Q5. So more 2pr? Yes. Never 55? No.

It really doesn't matter though. If you say its 2pr that often, then snap fold and move on.

Well that beats AA, so this seems like case closed?

I fold one pair hands to flop raises the vast majority of the time. LLSNL players are generally very passive.

When someone raises the flop like this in a raised pot, they have 2 pair or better almost every single time (unless you have a specific read otherwise). You said this guy plays ABC poker, which means youre beaten on the flop.

Ive said this a million times....if you fold every single time that you get raised and you dont have a monster yourself or correct odds to hit a draw, you should fold. If you walk into a new room and have no reads, you should fold to this flop raise every time.

He might show you AK once, but the next 9 times he will have 2 pair or a set. You exploit this by folding and moving on. Trust me, 99% of players are not trying to exploit you, outplay you with weak hands or any of that. They wait to hit a big hand and they raise.

My read was 2 pair because most people who flop sets very rarely gas it on the flop. It just seems like they can only slow play them On the flop especially.

But thanks for the replies, I’ll dump them next time and Won’t convince myself I have implied stack off odds if I catch.

Marsh

Thanks. I’ve seen it enough which is why my read was spot on. Not sure why I can’t drop it every time.

One thing to remember is that nobody has any idea you are folding as strong as AA here. If you just muck it without agonizing too much they will assume you just had AJ or something. So while it feels to you like you're getting run over, they're oblivious and so won't adjust and start bluff raising the flop more.