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Old 03-03-2017, 01:08 PM   #1
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: South Florida
Posts: 306
Flush Draw + Gut Shot

1/2nl at the Isle. Hero ($600) has a good table image and has shown down only solid winners, but I've only been there for an hour.

Main Villain: 30 something guy on his third buy in. Each bullet has been for progressively less money, $200 first, $150 second, now $120. He got coolered once, and bluffed off his second bullet on a 0 equity bluff. He has C-bet on 100% of pots he's opened so far.

Whale: Older guy who has 0 clue, in 80% of pots, huge station and a bit spazzy.

Side Villain: Typical loose passive llsnl player


Villain 1 ($120) UTG+1 opens to $10, 3 calls including Side Villain ($180) and Whale to my direct right ($500). I'm on the button with J9 and call. BB also calls.

Flop ($60)


Villain leads for $25, Side Villain calls, Whale folds. Hero?

My thought process for this decision:

1. If the flush draw is live then we have 14+ outs and are getting direct odds on a call.

2. Main Villain's range is basically every hand he would have opened pre. He is c-betting 100%.

3. Side Villain's most likely holdings are an 8, a 7, or a draw. If it's a flush draw I could be RIO'd.

4. I think it is likely that Main Villain will shove most safe turns if he has an overpair and check fold his air.

Do you call or raise? If raise, how much? If call, what is your plan for future streets?
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Old 03-03-2017, 01:20 PM   #2
Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: a farm in the country
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Re: Flush Draw + Gut Shot

So many options, and I can see merit to calling and raising.

Seems as if you are not making another dime if you hit a diamond or could lose $180 total. Only three clean outs so to the straight.

Based on No. 4, I probably raise now. Maybe even min-raise, which I normally hate. If V1 shoves and V2 folds it's a call. If V1 shoves and V2 calls, I probably just fold because so many of your outs are likely gone.
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Old 03-03-2017, 01:21 PM   #3
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Join Date: May 2008
Location: Seattle, WA
Posts: 1,354
Re: Flush Draw + Gut Shot

all-in. v1 and v2's ranges are pretty wide here.

calling is profitable, but villain can shove us off our equity on a lot of turns (we will almost never be able to jam the turn as a bluff against a too-wide double-barreling range because of stack sizes - if we were deeper this would be an option, which is an illustration of why stack depth amplifies positional advantage). Calling is ok, but at the end of the day I don't think there isn't too much sense in trying to actually play poker and see a turn against a spewy villain and small stacks multiway.

shoving ensures that we realize 100% of our equity, and we also make maybe $30-$40 in fold equity, which more than makes up for whatever equity deficit we end up with when we get it in.
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Old 03-03-2017, 02:06 PM   #4
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Location: Suffern, NY; PA, LV
Posts: 7,691
Re: Flush Draw + Gut Shot

the pot is 110 V1 has 100 behind and sV has 155 behind

jam now, there no sense calling since they will both be pot committed ott plus if we fold out a higher FD we've done great.
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Old 03-03-2017, 03:07 PM   #5
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Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 659
Re: Flush Draw + Gut Shot

Neither option is bad beyond folding but I think because how little main villain and side villain have behind I'm raising on flop to get stacks in or fold them out.
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Old 03-03-2017, 03:41 PM   #6
Join Date: Sep 2009
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Re: Flush Draw + Gut Shot

If we were 300 deep or deeper never raising but here I like a shove
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Old 03-03-2017, 06:14 PM   #7
Redskins 47
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Posts: 1,104
Re: Flush Draw + Gut Shot

Shove and feel good about it against these stack sizes. Call vs deeper stacks.
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