Flush draw in 3b pot
11-19-2017
, 10:24 AM
11-20-2017
, 06:40 AM
Quote:
When V raises pre and calls your 3b his range is going to consist mainly of PP’s, AK (good chance this 4b since you are 5 handed), AQ, and a couple suited connectors.
When you bet the flop and V calls you can probably take out AK and AQ so that leaves him with PP’s and hands like 76s, 54s, etc. Since you have KcQc it’s unlikely that he has a flush draw.
I would check back the turn as about the only hands that call the flop and that may fold to a turn bet are 88 and 99 (12 combos). There’s then 2-3 times that many combos that will call your turn bet.
When V c/r the turn I’m giving him mostly 2 pairs and sets so if you hit a Q or K on the river your hand probably won’t be good. Therefore, I’d give you 8-9 outs to win the hand. This means you have about 19% equity. Once V raises the turn the pot is 345£ and you need to call 94£ so you’re getting 3.7:1 on a call so you would need to be good 1/4.7 or 21% of the time. You have 19% equity and are just short of the 21% you need. However, if you do hit a club on the river you can easily make up for that 2% deficit. Therefore, I would call the turn.
When you bet the flop and V calls you can probably take out AK and AQ so that leaves him with PP’s and hands like 76s, 54s, etc. Since you have KcQc it’s unlikely that he has a flush draw.
I would check back the turn as about the only hands that call the flop and that may fold to a turn bet are 88 and 99 (12 combos). There’s then 2-3 times that many combos that will call your turn bet.
When V c/r the turn I’m giving him mostly 2 pairs and sets so if you hit a Q or K on the river your hand probably won’t be good. Therefore, I’d give you 8-9 outs to win the hand. This means you have about 19% equity. Once V raises the turn the pot is 345£ and you need to call 94£ so you’re getting 3.7:1 on a call so you would need to be good 1/4.7 or 21% of the time. You have 19% equity and are just short of the 21% you need. However, if you do hit a club on the river you can easily make up for that 2% deficit. Therefore, I would call the turn.
I call and folded to his shove (which i was pretty sure was coming on 100% of river cards) on the 2
He shows A
6
for the good old bluff with the best hand 
In hindsight though I think I do prefer checking back turn and taking the free river, my turn bet was to apply pressure to his medium pocket pair hands whilst still holding 2 overs and a flush draw when called...