Alright so it was my 1st hand of the day at my hometown casino (live NLHE 1$-2$). I had watch the table for about 15 minutes before buying-in. Table is really loose aggressive with raises and reraises preflop. Villain just lost a big pot and his stack is down to 300$. Mine is the starting stack, so 200$. I know villain comes often and his a really loose-agg player (probably a losing player).

Hero's hand: QJ

Preflop action: UTG limps, UTG+1 limps, fold, Villain (UTG+3) raises to 16$, two calls, on the button Hero calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds. (6 players in, the pot is 99$)

Flop comes: 52A

Action: BB cheks, UTG cheks, Villain bets 70$, 3 folds,

Hero?

you should have no fold equity so..

200 into 300.. so you need 40% and you have around 37% vs big aces and around 25% vs sets but you have around 47% vs worse flush draws.

meh. could go either way on this one. how much do you have on you if you lose this hand?

against a LAG, I am clicking this back to 150 as a semibluff. But letting a spewy LAG control the hand when all you have is Q high is asking for trouble

I have a 2000$ bankroll for the 1-2$ game, so i'm looking to make a profit in the long run!

Best play is fold. You've invested $16, pot is now $170.
You'll get 2.5 to 1 immediate odds on a call.
That would create a pot of $240. If V ships turn, you'll get 3.4 to 1, so not the right price. If you hit the turn, you might not get paid and if you miss, you won't get the right price to see the river.

If you want to gamble, ship it. Maybe V folds. Probably not. But you could win a big pot. Fold >AI > call.

Against a slightly modified 50% raising range, lets be conservative and suppose he cbets the straight, sets, top pair,KK, QQ, pair + gutshot, and all flushes.

You have 42% against this range.
I don't think its only Ax and sets which bet. If this is true, then do the math and it's probably a fold.
So, if you shove and he calls with everything that bets, this is break even. The more he folds, the more +EV this is.
Will he ever fold? If he is cbetting any more than the above hands (and so folds them), I think your shove is +EV.

But, what about the other player in this hand?

There were 2 unknown players left to act, but they were both looking uninterested and I was pretty sure they were both going to fold their hands!

Why no fold equity? The raiser is a LAG that raises 50% of pots pre, and still very aggressive post flop... It's less likely he's bluffing because there were 5 players to act behind him, but I still think I have some fold equity here.

fold pre

i mean it's nice to have the btn and a decent speculative hand vs a raise & callers

but in the end calling an 8x open w/QJs @ only 100bbs is pretty bad

Ya that's right in a way, but I felt I could play better than the raiser here because I had seem him play and he haven't seen me play. You're probably right tho, with the blinds and two limpers left to act it would have been the right play

Result: I shove, and everyone folded. I scooped the pot.