Hello everyone, just after some advice from a hand I played recently at my local. Looking mostly for turn/river advice and if my line of thinking was correct and optimal, or not

1/1, stacks between 100-650 average

Hero is young and may look a little fishy due to his age, other players will have virtually no reads as this is a new table and hero is unknown. Effective stack 550 after some standard wins (bought in for 200), a few went to showdown but mostly standard play

Villain is the asian gambler type, have played before some time ago but not sure if they remember this or not. Somewhat thinking player, capable of hand reading but also likes to gamble. Villain is 500 effective after topping up to match Hero's stack

THE HAND

Hero raises to 6bb (6) UTG +1 with AQ
Villain (directly to the left of hero) calls, 3 others call

FLOP [30]
2 4 9

Very happy flopping the nuts (duh), I elect to fast play as I am expecting at least a few callers with 9's or maybe the K high draw or combo draws.
I bet 21 in to 30
Villain calls, all others fold

THE TURN [71]
9 Board is now 2 4 9 9
I check to villain. I feel if I bet I am representing way too strong of a range here, such as a flopped flush, or AA/KK, maybe also with a heart redraw. I figured if villain called flop with a 9 and improved to trips, he is almost always going to bet the turn to protect and also for value from over pairs. Of course, he could also bet full houses perfectly in this spot, and I feel he would play 22 or 44 very similar. Mostly though, I was checking to induce a bet from a 9 and trying to disguise my hand, with the intention of c/c or c/r on the river
After Hero checks, Villain bets 55 and hero calls

The River [181]
5 Board is now 2 4 9 9 5
Keeping in line with my rationale so far I decide to check, expecting all 9's to bet for value against over pairs, and expecting him to bet all bluffs (if he can have any) and also to induce the A high FD to fold.
Villain bets 105, hero ??calls?? ??shoves??
At this point I am sure villain has a 9 of some kind. My thinking was that if I c/r jam the river, I am getting snapped by houses and a 9 would likely fold, making shoving almost pointless.


Let me know if you think there is value in jamming the river and if my thinking was correct, also feel free to criticise/ask questions about any of my decisions, thats why I'm here

OP, please don't post the results. It biases responses. I removed them.

In general, you are not getting enough value. Bigger pre, bigger OTF, bet turn, bet river, imo. AP, I would not shove river, as worse is basically never calling

I'll remember this in future, thanks

If you're sure villain has a 9 of some kind, what full houses do you put in his range? Do you think villain is calling your pre-flop raise with 95, 94, or 92?

I really dislike checking the turn. You say you're checking mostly to "induce a bet from a 9 and disguise my hand". Just lead the turn and bet big, a 9 isn't folding here and there is no need to overthink this street.

I would also lead river. If the goal is to disguise your hand, checking the turn and river accomplished that and your hand is now underrepped. If you're "sure villain has a 9 of some kind", shoving is the obvious play because that would mean running into a boat is highly unlikely.

I don't mind the line if you are confident that villain is aggressive enough to bet both turn and river. Against all but the most aggressive I'm leading turn or river and often both.

Turn lead is strong on this board but if villain doesn't have 9X or better are they putting any more money in? The only other hands that might call are flush draws and you want to charge those on the turn. River lead is mostly because weaker 9X and any weaker hands will usually check behind on this river. Your range is mostly 9X or flush draws, the flush draws whiffed and won't call anything and the better 9X is never folding.

As played I would raise river. The only boats villain is likely to show up with are 44 and 22, his range is mostly 9X. Your hand is close enough to the nuts that you might as well shove even though your mostly going to get folds.

Slightly more on the flop. I'd bet the turn and river. You're targeting 9x with a heart, single Kx heart draws, and worse flushes. The river would be a bet/fold. Nothing worse than the nut flush raises.

As played, I probably just call. I don't like the plan to c/r unless you're positive villain won't dump flushes. A 'somewhat thinking player capable of hand reading' dumps KhXh and worse to a river c/r.

As played, I call.

I don't mind your line too much if you are sure he bets turn and river, but I would probably just keep betting -- at least I'd bet the river. I'm not positive I'd fold to a raise on the river from this guy, though. There is a good chance a gambly player will raise with a flush here.

Thanks everyone, some really useful stuff!

The only boats I was really worried about were 22 and 44, I think 99 would re-raise pre given the table dynamics and on the turn there's only one combo of that which is quads so I discounted that. I also discounted 92-94, as that would just be crazy.

Overall I had villain strongly on 9x, and just didn't feel like 9x would be strong enough to call a river shove given the board and how I played, so I elected to just call the river. I was reluctant to bet river myself given that I would probably have to fold to a shove against most opponents, against this villain it would have been a horrible spot

One alternative would be what Keaton said, bet turn and bet river myself. I'm thinking villain would have called turn with the 9, and maybe tank called the river, and only ever shoving with boats, so that line also has a lot of merit I think

Try running the hand through assuming you bet/bet/bet. I think that creates some really tough spots. If you made a slightly bigger on the flop, the pot on the turn might be 80 - 90 and you're left with around 475 effective heads up. Say you lead 75 or so and he raises to 200 or ships. What is the plan now? Your hand obviously has a lot of showdown value. Maybe you call a ship on the turn, but what about on the river?

I actually like the hand as played and I'm only calling on the end. Interested to hear people's plans if we decide to keep betting and get raised on either street.

Let's think about villain's flop range. If he has a set, I would expect a raise. That certainly doesn't discount sets from his range, but this is usually a spot where a set will raise, as any heart on the turn or river kills their hand. And villain could easily put us on a big overpair with one heart.

Keep in mind, villain seems on the looser side and "likes to gamble".

Assuming I led the turn and faced a raise/ship, I am calling/shipping. Our hand is just too big to fold vs this type of villain in this situation.

If I faced a river jam, that would be a tougher decision...

I think its a pretty easy raise on the river. flopped sets with this type of player are almost always raising (90%+) and shouldnt have any flopped 2 pairs in his range. i like checking the turn/river if the plan is to shove over his bet. He isnt folding good 9s on this runout.

grunch:

Raise to $230 or so.