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Flopping the nuts

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09-28-2018 , 01:23 PM

krilleater

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 666

Here's a hand from a recent 1/3 session where I'm wondering the best line to maximize value.

Effective stack is $900 (mine), main V is a TAG MAWG who I haven't seen get out of line before.

UTG limps, I limp behind in MP with 78dd, V in LJ raises to 17, 3 callers, I call.

Flop 4c5s6s

Checks to me, I check, V bets 60, folds to me and I call.

Turn Ac, I check, V bets 180.

Hero?

I'm not sure if flatting or raising here is best. The river can bring a lot of cards which either kill my action or my hand (any club, any spade) and I still have $600 behind that I'd like to get in. Thoughts?

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09-28-2018 , 01:26 PM

palrio

enthusiast

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 98

Turn: Raise, call.

River: Shove nervously.

Profit.

They love their Ax, they would never imagine you have 78.

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09-28-2018 , 01:33 PM

mdelore

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 1,315

SPR is pretty low at this point just shove. A smaller raise seems like fps to me. Sick spot to shove a draw too, it's super hard for him to call AK here.

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09-28-2018 , 01:39 PM

krilleater

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 666

Quote:

Originally Posted by palrio

They love their Ax, they would never imagine you have 78.

V is not a moron, he's a pretty competent TAG.

The only Ax I expect him to stack off with here are AsXs, Ax7x, AA, and AK. Probably not even AK.

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09-28-2018 , 02:15 PM

Chunkamunk

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 447

Why is he betting 85% pot OTT?

I think we don't have to worry about

s here considering that the A

hit.

If he just turned a set of Aces, why is he bombing for so much?? I'ts a very strange line. A

is certainly in play as is 2 pair or a set.

I think we min-raise to $360, and you are essentially left with a 1/2 pot bet on the river if he only calls. I think his hand is weighted more toward a flopped set/2pair than overs and a FD. As long as the board doesn't pair OTR, I'd be comfortable getting the rest of the $ in.

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09-28-2018 , 02:28 PM

jtm1208

adept

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 780

I'm not sure I like a shove at these stakes, tbh. You're probably not capable of shoving 273 BB on a draw here (nothing personal, probably less than 1% are shoving 270 BB on bluff draw in this spot. A shove here is basically 78 and AA. The only hands that a competent good player should be calling you with here is 78, AA, 55-66, and maybe A4ss.

Even then. I think a good thinking villain will fold 55 and possible 66, AA is a snap call and A4s is probably going to cry call a shove. I like a raise to $420 -$475 setting up an easy river shove with probably a cry call from villain on unimproved boards.

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