Quote:
Originally Posted by Keaton
I don't agree with your premise regarding SPR, but even if I did, the numbers don't add up to play for stacks if the flop checks through.
Once that happens, the pot is around $33. Even if we lead $25 (a nearly pot sized bet) and get one caller (in this case, the CO), the pot is $83 going to the river and villain has $114 remaining. I guess we could overbet jam, otherwise we aren't getting stacks in without some sort of a miracle raise in there.
We flopped middle set on an ace high board. Zero reason to not just bet, bet, bet and get the money in.
Well OP did a pretty poor job of laying things out for us (next time post raise sizes and pot sizes OP, standard stuff!), but...
Assuming a $12 open, with 2 calls and the blinds, that's a $40 pot. Most people don't figure in the rake when looking at the pot at this point even though $5 will be coming out of it at the end, but it you want to call it a ~$35 that's fine. Biggest starting stack was $150 - $12 = $138. So biggest SPR is $138 / $35 = 3.94, so about ~4. We can play for stacks in SPR 4 pots with two ~PSBs; if the flop checks thru, a $35 bet on the turn creates a HU pot of $105 and leaves a river shove of $103 behind. Keeping in mind that $35 and $105 bets are quite small $$$-wise in a 1/3 NL game and can easily be called; versus say an SPR pot of 4 where the pot is $300 and stacks behind are $1200, yeah, in that case you'll likely have to start betting early cuz $300 / $900 bets don't get called off easily (and in my room you'll actually run into the max bet of $700 rule which is ~never encountered).
I'm not saying a bet/bet/bet line is bad. I'm just saying that if we're going to stray from certain lines every so often, that this is a pretty good case to do so (few scare cards even though unfortunately one of them hit, few draws to charge, can still play for stacks if flop unfortunately checks thru, someone with air can hit a piece on the turn that will now be willing to put in a bet or two, people can bluff when we show weakness, an A will likely bet for us anyways, etc.).
Gflopiswhatevereither/orandeitherplayisfine,imoG
Last edited by gobbledygeek; 06-07-2018 at 11:21 AM.