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Flopping Middle Set OOP, Very Deep Flopping Middle Set OOP, Very Deep

04-20-2021 , 06:29 PM
Hey Y'all,

1/3NLH
Hero UTG $3000 eff
V1 UTG +1, very capable player. Has been playing much bigger over the last couple months but this happens to be the deepest game in the room tonight so he's sitting with us.
V2 UTG +2. A rec player but a solid, winning one.

I'm the effective stack size at 3k

I'm friendly with both villains in this hand. We've played together for a while. We've bought a few drinks for each other tonight.

Hero UTG: KK raises to 20
V1: call
V2: call
CO: call

Flop ($84) AKT

Hero: $50
V1: raises to $150
V2: Call
CO: fold
Hero: Call

With 3 callers on this board I can probably go even bigger. It obviously smashes my range but there's plenty of dominated hands that will continue with us anyway. OOP vs so many opponents I guess I'm incentivized to go bigger with value and bluffs and bet less frequently. So $50 is probably a small mistake.

Now, the raise call is obviously concerning. I think on most nights neither will have QJ in full, probably just the suited combos, but tonight, with gameflow dynamics I think we can give them each far more combos of QJ.

V1 can have plenty of other hands here too. He's shown the ability to low propensity flat AA before and is positionally aware enough to have flatted TT to my UTG open. He probably can't have AK here but KT and AT are other value raises he might have.

V2 flatting the raise seems club heavy to me. He also might be slowplaying QJ because a bet, raise, cold 3! on flop probably can't be balanced effectively over the board.

I settle on a call because while I'd like to punish the overcaller and I'm ahead of so many value combos from V1s range I think both ranges are too protected by the density of QJ holdings to justify a 3!

Turn ($534): 9

Hero: check
V1: $400
V2: raises to $1200
Hero: ????

Continuing with a check probably isn't bad. Obviously there's some danger V1 is now more concerned about my range and clams up, then V2 gets to see the river for free with a club draw but I think that's a risk we have to take.

When V1 now fires then the overcaller raises I think we're in big, big trouble. It's possible my hand is so underrepped that V2 is going crazy but V1's range looks so strong too I find that really hand to believe.

We get put in the absolute blender against two players I think each have at least 10 combos (if not the full 16) of QJ. Am I seeing monsters under the bed here? Finding bluffs in this formation feels pretty difficult.

Anyway, you've got $2,830 behind and a set of Kings facing a $1200 bet and a player left to act. Action on you.

Last edited by Garick; 04-20-2021 at 07:31 PM. Reason: removed results
Flopping Middle Set OOP, Very Deep Quote
04-20-2021 , 08:37 PM
This seems like a tough fold on the turn. V1 is projecting strength, and V2 comes over the top. Feels like V2 has QJ almost all the time here.

I guess some of the time V1 can have AT and V2 can have clubs, but with the A and K of clubs on the board, V2 should have few draw combos. What can V2 have, just QTcc, Q9cc, JTcc, J9cc? That’s a small number of semibluff combos. Then you have to evaluate the chance that V2 decides to make an ambitious bluff with those hands, into two players with uncapped ranges, which seems unlikely. Altogether V2 might have 1 or 2 bluff combos and then 4 combos of QJs (plus more if you think he’s flatting QJo preflop). Seems like a fold on the turn even if QJo isn’t in range.
Flopping Middle Set OOP, Very Deep Quote
04-20-2021 , 08:45 PM
The issue with cold calling is that if either opponent has QJ, the $ is going in. If you set over set one and the other has QJ, you’re in horrible shape.

You showed strength by raising pre, betting flop and calling the raise. V1 showed strength by raising into you on this board. V2 still wants to put the $ in. I think we have to fold


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Flopping Middle Set OOP, Very Deep Quote
04-21-2021 , 02:27 PM
You have to fold here.

You can't close the action. At no point that you have enough equity on the current bet, even if you and both V1 and V2 get it all in. One of your Vs has QJ, and if it's V1, all the money is getting in on the turn. You can't assume that all of your outs are live. If you're against QJ and AT, you're in bad shape, to jdr0317's point.

You're lucky that you got out of the hand with only losing $170....assuming you folded.
Flopping Middle Set OOP, Very Deep Quote
04-21-2021 , 03:07 PM
I’m just not going to fold here. If you think folding kings here is a good move probably shouldn’t be playing 1000 big blinds eep. Too much AK/AT/TT/junk for me to fold. Shove and scoop.
Flopping Middle Set OOP, Very Deep Quote
04-21-2021 , 03:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by twitcherroo
I’m just not going to fold here. If you think folding kings here is a good move probably shouldn’t be playing 1000 big blinds eep. Too much AK/AT/TT/junk for me to fold. Shove and scoop.
+1

When we could be still ahead, have 10 outs and up against players that play big, can't really fold. But mainly, stop playing this deep. Leave the table. If you can't wait and buy back in for 100 BB, call it a night.
Flopping Middle Set OOP, Very Deep Quote
04-21-2021 , 03:39 PM
Is nobody else re-raising flop? We will get potentially get calls from TT, and maybe even AK and some club draws, JcTc, or are we that scared of QJ here. BTW we still have reasonable equity against QJ.

As played this feels like a sigh fold on the turn if we're sure they have QJ since we don't have the equity with one more card. However I'm not sure I ever find it even against a nit.
Flopping Middle Set OOP, Very Deep Quote
04-21-2021 , 03:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by twitcherroo
If you think folding kings here is a good move probably shouldn’t be playing 1000 big blinds eep. Too much AK/AT/TT/junk for me to fold. Shove and scoop.
If anything, I think the opposite is true -- if you're not willing to ever consider making big folds, I think that indicates you shouldn't be playing 1000 BB deep.

That doesn't mean we should necessarily fold here. But it's not crazy facing this action (which is about the strongest flop and turn action you can possibly face).
Flopping Middle Set OOP, Very Deep Quote
04-21-2021 , 03:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by twitcherroo
I’m just not going to fold here. If you think folding kings here is a good move probably shouldn’t be playing 1000 big blinds eep. Too much AK/AT/TT/junk for me to fold. Shove and scoop.
From V2 AK and TT are 3! pre. Same from V1 an overwhelming majority of the time. Extremely doubtful those two hands are in range.
Flopping Middle Set OOP, Very Deep Quote
04-21-2021 , 04:02 PM
People underestimate that this is 4 way, extremely deep and OOP.

In that spot, my instinct isn't to shovel money into the pot on the flop, because if the board doesn't pair and I am not faced by an absolute drooler, if all the money has gone in on the river, my set isn't good.

So, on the flop, my preference would be to keep the pot small. You don't have many bluffs either, nor should you bluff a lot. I either check or bet small.

The way the hand played, it seems overwhelmingly likely one of the two villains has QJ. Sometimes both would have button clicked and showed up with something else. but they 've shown incredible strength.

So to me there are two things to keep in mind.

4 ways, even with a set of KK, proceed cautiously on this board.

As played, it's a matter of pot odds. I am only calling if I have enough odds to hit a full house.
Flopping Middle Set OOP, Very Deep Quote
04-21-2021 , 04:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by expectastorm
From V2 AK and TT are 3! pre. Same from V1 an overwhelming majority of the time. Extremely doubtful those two hands are in range.
Your inital post said v1 was positionally aware enough to flat TT, so how do you range them? I'm assuming it's full ring and in that case an EP call of an UTG raise should be really pretty strong, unless they view you as pretty loose. I'm assuming none of them are calling QJo (since you said both were competent), and it's only QJs.
Flopping Middle Set OOP, Very Deep Quote
04-21-2021 , 05:34 PM
This sort of situation was low on the list of why I stopped playing 2/5 and started buying in $200 at 1/3, with a $500 pocket bankroll (2/5 was a $1,000 buyin and $3,000 pocket bankroll). Yes, it has the potential to be very profitable, but it is also very high variance.

I prefer the slower, but steady gains to the big hit. Besides that, I'm not that good of a player. in the 1/3, I'm dangerous, in the 2/5, I'm just a nit.
Flopping Middle Set OOP, Very Deep Quote
04-21-2021 , 05:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
+1

When we could be still ahead, have 10 outs and up against players that play big, can't really fold. But mainly, stop playing this deep. Leave the table. If you can't wait and buy back in for 100 BB, call it a night.
I routinely play 1/3 this deep and I think this is quite an easy fold. I wouldn't lose any sleep over the fold, even if V1 turned over TT and V2 turned over (a very poorly played) AT.

We're just not doing that well against even fairly generous live ranges:


Last edited by ChaosInEquilibrium; 04-21-2021 at 05:49 PM.
Flopping Middle Set OOP, Very Deep Quote
04-21-2021 , 06:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hitchens97
Your inital post said v1 was positionally aware enough to flat TT, so how do you range them? I'm assuming it's full ring and in that case an EP call of an UTG raise should be really pretty strong, unless they view you as pretty loose. I'm assuming none of them are calling QJo (since you said both were competent), and it's only QJs.

Good question. So there's a couple of things to consider in this spot

1.) absolutely a loose game
2.) at 1000BB deep lots of things that would be explicitly bad at 100 or 200 or even 300BB can be rationalized - like calling with unsuited broadways of all kinds vs a UTG open. Does having more BB all of a sudden make them good, of course not. But much more easily rationalized for sure.
3.) V1 has shown the ability to flat big pocket pairs at a (very) low frequency. V2 has not. And at any depth I think AK and TT is a pretty automatic 3! from that player even given the tight formation.

the last piece of this is that, with the exception of myself and V1, there were significantly fewer 3! from the rest of the table than there "should" have been. I think V2 can reasonably flat a lot of hands here and expect not to get squeezed behind even with the dead money already in the pot.

So for a range for V1 and V2, off suit broadway combos, smaller suited connecters, smaller pocket pairs probably up to 88 maaaayyyyybe 99 although that hand will 3! and some frequency. Suited As up to maybe AT or AJ. V1 will have some (again very occasional) big hands where V2 will not.

V2s 3! range might look like TT+, AQ+ with some KQs mixed in at maybe half frequency.

V1s will be a bit wider and include some suited wheels and perhaps some other hands but will be disincentivized to 3! with the weaker holdings based on my opening position.
Flopping Middle Set OOP, Very Deep Quote
04-21-2021 , 06:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChaosInEquilibrium
I routinely play 1/3 this deep and I think this is quite an easy fold. I wouldn't lose any sleep over the fold, even if V1 turned over TT and V2 turned over (a very poorly played) AT.

We're just not doing that well against even fairly generous live ranges

Thanks for sharing this. A great look at it.
Flopping Middle Set OOP, Very Deep Quote
04-21-2021 , 07:53 PM
I can’t believe how much nittery I see in this forum, then suddenly there’s people who want to get KK in on AKT-9 1000 bb deep against 2 opponents.


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Flopping Middle Set OOP, Very Deep Quote
04-21-2021 , 10:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChaosInEquilibrium
I routinely play 1/3 this deep and I think this is quite an easy fold. I wouldn't lose any sleep over the fold, even if V1 turned over TT and V2 turned over (a very poorly played) AT.

We're just not doing that well against even fairly generous live ranges:

OP said villains were both competent. Can we really think of QJo in their range?Even in a loose game, I can't see flatting QJo in EP is a play that you should make, neither ATo.

If it's not in their ranges, I suspect it completely turns their equity in your favor.
Flopping Middle Set OOP, Very Deep Quote
04-21-2021 , 11:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hitchens97
OP said villains were both competent. Can we really think of QJo in their range?Even in a loose game, I can't see flatting QJo in EP is a play that you should make, neither ATo.

If it's not in their ranges, I suspect it completely turns their equity in your favor.
It’s Texas poker so opens will get called in 3-4 spots on the regular. That means there have to be a lot of offsuit Broadway trash in range. Anyway, OP stated QJo is in range at least at a partial.

If you want, I can remove QJo and ATo from V1 since he is “competent”. V2 is a rec, so I think he’s probably playing too wide preflop. I think we have to give him QJo and ATo.

On the other hand, if V2 is a winning player is it really reasonable to assume he overplays AT like this on the turn? Putting AT in range for V2 is a huge stretch to begin with IMO.

If I remove QJo/ATo from V1 and I remove AT from V2, I think you’ll see the equity still isn’t great. I can run it again tomorrow just to check.

One last point about ranges: since V1 plays bigger he should presumably be 3betting preflop some fraction of the time with AK. Maybe V2 also 3bets some percentage of the time with AK to pick up the dead money. I’m not so sure that all AK combos are in range.

Last edited by ChaosInEquilibrium; 04-22-2021 at 12:18 AM.
Flopping Middle Set OOP, Very Deep Quote
04-22-2021 , 12:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hitchens97
OP said villains were both competent. Can we really think of QJo in their range?Even in a loose game, I can't see flatting QJo in EP is a play that you should make, neither ATo.

If it's not in their ranges, I suspect it completely turns their equity in your favor.
If you think they are competent enough to not call pre with QJo, you can't think they are so incompetent that they are piling money 4 way with AK/AT/KT.
Flopping Middle Set OOP, Very Deep Quote
04-22-2021 , 12:58 AM
This could be JTcc or QTcc just as easily as QJcc.

And yes I would have raised the flop.
Flopping Middle Set OOP, Very Deep Quote
04-22-2021 , 12:59 AM
If you’re ranging V on QJ and QJ only, then what is the question?
Flopping Middle Set OOP, Very Deep Quote
04-22-2021 , 03:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdr0317
I can’t believe how much nittery I see in this forum, then suddenly there’s people who want to get KK in on AKT-9 1000 bb deep against 2 opponents.


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hahahahaha this is the winner right here
Flopping Middle Set OOP, Very Deep Quote
04-22-2021 , 02:43 PM
V2 would have to be a complete moron to make it $1,200 with anything except QJ here.

V2 description from OP: "V2 UTG +2. A rec player but a solid, winning one."

Doesn't sound like a complete moron to me.

As played, what does a reasonably competent player think YOU have given action pre and post? AK, sets. And yet you are getting this much action anyway. Insta-muck.
Flopping Middle Set OOP, Very Deep Quote
04-26-2021 , 06:36 PM
Just saw your call-in to the CLP show. You fold, and Villain 1 folds and shows KTo.
What a hand. Dunno what V1 is thinking with his flop raise... and the turn bet is just atrocious.

Last edited by ChaosInEquilibrium; 04-26-2021 at 06:44 PM.
Flopping Middle Set OOP, Very Deep Quote
04-26-2021 , 06:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChaosInEquilibrium
Just saw your call-in to the CLP show. You fold, and Villain 1 folds and shows KTo.
What a hand. Dunno what V1 is thinking with his flop raise... and the turn bet is just atrocious.
What about V2?
Flopping Middle Set OOP, Very Deep Quote

      
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