Quote:
Originally Posted by QuadJ
This is the really a variation of the classic problem of having a hand that is better then 50/50 to win but still -EV to play from the blinds.
AJ vs a typical opening range is the classic example. Against a typical LP opening range your slightly ahead but it still isn't worth calling. If you call, catch a single pair and have the best hand your not making much money. You will often get a flop c-bet but usually villain gives up after that and you won't always get a flop bet. If you don't have the best hand your paying off at least the flop c-bet and possibly more. It is a situation where the long term EV ends up negative because you lose more on the hands your beat then you win on the hands where your best.
OP's hand has the same problem after the small raise and calls. If Hero knew there was no more betting pot odds would make this a (very) small +EV call. When you factor in additional betting it is -EV because of the number of times hero will hit a queen and lose or hit a ten and fold the best hand.
these are all intuitive "facts" though, nothing quantifyable imo. math is quantifyable (not saying my range is correct though, but it´s a start)
imo most posters here are regs/pros, so we should expect a good player to come out ahead on these sticky situations on the long run
you will lose money from the blinds anyway, the only question is do you lose more or less than that 1bb if you had folded? imo calling 10 into a pot of 57 with QTs should be enough to make up that difference if hero plays reasonable postflop vs likely weaker opponents