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Flopped top 2 WTF????? Flopped top 2 WTF?????

07-17-2014 , 01:01 AM
So this was the hand to end my night it was in the 2/5 300 cap game
V just sat down seems to be a reg only because I have seen him before and he seems to know quite a few of the other regs...

V ~250
H ~300

V is utg +2 raises to 15
3 callers
H in bb calls with Qh 10h

Flop (75) Qs 10s 9d

H checks to V who bets 30 Btn calls everyone else folds

?
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07-17-2014 , 01:07 AM
Raise to $140 and call a shove. Fold pre. You're OOP and not that deep. I know the raise is tiny pre but you will just never hit hard often enough AND stack someone with a second best hand. On the other hand, you will often whiff or flop a weak mid pair or top pair type hand that you just want to showdown.
You basically flopped gin and there are tons of hands that have 40% to 50% equity against you. And if someone has KJ, J8 or 99 (thats an amazing 35 combos!!!! the raise was tiny pre thst the cold callers could easily have J8o) you're drawing super slim
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07-17-2014 , 01:09 AM
In position, calling or folding pre is really close. If villains are really bad, I'd call. Otherwise fold even with position
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07-17-2014 , 01:28 AM
Don't fold pre. Lead the flop. As played just shove with these stack sizes. It will look like you have a draw and you may get called lighter than raising half your stack, plus you hate half the deck on the turn if you somehow get called.
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07-17-2014 , 01:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94
Don't fold pre. Lead the flop. As played just shove with these stack sizes. It will look like you have a draw and you may get called lighter than raising half your stack, plus you hate half the deck on the turn if you somehow get called.
How will you win post flop calling pre without basically hitting two pairs+? And on top of that you have to get paid and someone has to hit a second best hand that they're willing to felt. Just too many variables.
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07-17-2014 , 01:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by slimshady1999
How will you win post flop calling pre without basically hitting two pairs+? And on top of that you have to get paid and someone has to hit a second best hand that they're willing to felt. Just too many variables.
You could say that with a lot of hands. Flop a pair/get it in. Flop a draw/get it in.
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07-17-2014 , 07:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by slimshady1999
Fold pre. You're OOP and not that deep. I know the raise is tiny pre but you will just never hit hard often enough AND stack someone with a second best hand. On the other hand, you will often whiff or flop a weak mid pair or top pair type hand that you just want to showdown.
With this kind of thought process, you'll only play one hand every 2 hours.
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07-17-2014 , 08:41 AM
folding a suited broadway in the bb to a 3bb raise multiway in a live game is ridiculous. yes it gets you in tough spots sometimes, but you have to man up and play postflop once in a while
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07-17-2014 , 08:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bulls_horn
With this kind of thought process, you'll only play one hand every 2 hours.
Not really.

Play in position.

This should be your goal.
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07-17-2014 , 08:53 AM
We are 50bb deep with top two on a draw heavy board. Get it in somehow.

I'm ok with raising to $130 and shoving the turn. Shoving now seems a bit akward, V would have to call $215 into $340. Meh.
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07-17-2014 , 10:09 AM
Yeah I don't know if I'm foldin pre here basically I have 6.5:1 on a call with a pretty decent speculative hand... Anyways here is the "wtf" portion since I know there probably won't be much more posting now..

V bets 30 1 caller I raise 120 v shoves Btn folds I call he shows KJ

This basically sums it all up
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07-17-2014 , 10:23 AM
Sounds like a cooler. U flopped top-two pair at 60 BB effective. The money is going in.

The call pre was ok, since it was a small raise pre in a 5-way pot with QTs.
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07-17-2014 , 10:52 AM
The villain has only 17:1 in his stack and you're 20:1 to hit 2 pair+. Easy fold unless you know that the villain is going to stack off with Q6 on a TP board. Yeah there are other players, but you're OOP. I'd much rather call with 86s in this situation than QTs.
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07-17-2014 , 11:34 AM
If you were 100bb deep then I like calling pre with great relative position multiway, but your not 100bb deep. You're 60bb deep and this hand sucks for a short stack. Fold pre.


As played you should be playing hard and fast. Check raise and shove any calls.
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07-17-2014 , 12:07 PM
even if we give our villains a pretty tight range, this isn´t a fold mathematically
ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
10%25.40% 145,93714,602
20%20.23% 114,50215,411
30%18.09% 101,79315,121
30%18.10% 101,83215,125
QhTh18.17% 103,57312,055

def not an "easy" fold, has to be a call imo
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07-17-2014 , 12:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sauhund
even if we give our villains a pretty tight range, this isn´t a fold mathematically
This is the really a variation of the classic problem of having a hand that is better then 50/50 to win but still -EV to play from the blinds.

AJ vs a typical opening range is the classic example. Against a typical LP opening range your slightly ahead but it still isn't worth calling. If you call, catch a single pair and have the best hand your not making much money. You will often get a flop c-bet but usually villain gives up after that and you won't always get a flop bet. If you don't have the best hand your paying off at least the flop c-bet and possibly more. It is a situation where the long term EV ends up negative because you lose more on the hands your beat then you win on the hands where your best.

OP's hand has the same problem after the small raise and calls. If Hero knew there was no more betting pot odds would make this a (very) small +EV call. When you factor in additional betting it is -EV because of the number of times hero will hit a queen and lose or hit a ten and fold the best hand.
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07-17-2014 , 12:58 PM
Simply put: position.
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07-17-2014 , 01:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by QuadJ
This is the really a variation of the classic problem of having a hand that is better then 50/50 to win but still -EV to play from the blinds.

AJ vs a typical opening range is the classic example. Against a typical LP opening range your slightly ahead but it still isn't worth calling. If you call, catch a single pair and have the best hand your not making much money. You will often get a flop c-bet but usually villain gives up after that and you won't always get a flop bet. If you don't have the best hand your paying off at least the flop c-bet and possibly more. It is a situation where the long term EV ends up negative because you lose more on the hands your beat then you win on the hands where your best.

OP's hand has the same problem after the small raise and calls. If Hero knew there was no more betting pot odds would make this a (very) small +EV call. When you factor in additional betting it is -EV because of the number of times hero will hit a queen and lose or hit a ten and fold the best hand.
these are all intuitive "facts" though, nothing quantifyable imo. math is quantifyable (not saying my range is correct though, but it´s a start)
imo most posters here are regs/pros, so we should expect a good player to come out ahead on these sticky situations on the long run

you will lose money from the blinds anyway, the only question is do you lose more or less than that 1bb if you had folded? imo calling 10 into a pot of 57 with QTs should be enough to make up that difference if hero plays reasonable postflop vs likely weaker opponents
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07-17-2014 , 02:14 PM
With these effective stacks, pre seems close enough that it probably comes down to the fishiness of the 3 cold callers, and hero's post-flop skill level. Usually calling though.

Both x/shove and x/small raise/shove turn feel pretty awkward SPR-wise.

If you lead for $60 you set up a turn shove nicely, and never give away a (pretty disastrous) free card. I would do that.
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07-17-2014 , 05:52 PM
If you're deeper...then calling with QTs is ok out of the blinds but on a stack of 50-60BB, you're range should shrink up dramatically unless you're looking to squeeze with great reads pre OOP. This is a fold pre IMO though...

As played, I would lead flop @$50-$60 and look to be shoving all-in on turn to any non-threatening cards. Since you didn't lead...c/r to 90 and shove turn.
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07-17-2014 , 08:51 PM
jesus 2/5 with a 300 cap....why even play the game? Problem with this type of game is you cant ever really fold a hand this good this shallow, even when you are flipping against hands like AJ or could already be crushed.
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07-17-2014 , 10:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sr1129
jesus 2/5 with a 300 cap....why even play the game? Problem with this type of game is you cant ever really fold a hand this good this shallow, even when you are flipping against hands like AJ or could already be crushed.
If by flipping you mean AJ has like 32% equity..
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