1/3nl, 7 players

sb: $500
mp (Hero = T J): $400

sb is a loose passive. he plays 50%+ hands but has some post flop skills.

if checked though on the flop, he will bet out small on turn if checked to him. On the river, he'll bet $5 more than his turn bet.
He's been surprisingly effective in taking down ALOT of pots like this.
One person called his river bet with Ace high. Sb lost with Q5o.

The table is passive and i have a horrible image. I've been raising pre $10 alot although the only hands i've shown are Top Pair+.
sb has donked into me on the flop a couple times and i folded.


Pre:
Hero bets $10, sb calls, bb folds

Flop ($23): 8 9 Q
sb checks, hero bets $15, sb calls

$15 is my standard cbet

Turn ($53): Q
sb bets $25, hero raises to $80, sb calls

ok, i put him on a Queen (or even Qx) or Tx/Jx.

River ($213): J
sb checks, Hero?

i so want to value bet $80 but afraid of the flush plus he could have QJ for a boat.


What would you do?
Why?

edit:
What if the flop was 8 9 Q thus eliminating the possibility of him having Qx?

I'd check fold this spot. This is prolly the worst river card in the deck. You really don't beat much that he could call you with. If he hung on with a flush draw you loose, Tx will chop, and sets win also. I dont see him value betting worse on the river or calling a vague bet with worse on the river so I'd check fold if he bet.

Check back the river. The board is so scary at this point that even a QX may fold. Even most stations can get away from hands with 4 to a straight on the board. Another good reason to check is that if villain did make a straight/flush/boat on the river they may try to trap after you raise turn.

Swapping out the queen really doesn't change things here. It's less likely villain is beating you but also less likely villain has a hand that can call anything.

A loose passive is not donking the turn on a FD so you can pretty much rule that out and a loose passive is not check/raising this river with a straight or with a bluff so you needn't worry about that scenario. So the downside to betting doesn't really exist in this spot so you need to value bet this player with abandon. Based on the action his most likely hand is Qx. Theoretically you wanna bet the highest amount he will call. On this scary board it's probably not that much. You should have a better idea how much than I do. My guess is somewhere between 1/4 pot to 1/2 pot. So your instinct to bet $80 seems on point to me.

Play the hand the same way, and stop fearing the flush when the action + the player description strongly suggests he doesn't have it. Extract value. Make him pay those times he has Qx. These are the type of value spots you cannot pass up if you want to be a big winner in these games.

I fold preflop but I'm a tight nit OOP. Our small raise somehow got this HU in position with a very playable SPR, so if that is the expected result (it isn't in my game) then obviously fine.

SPR is a huge 17 so unlikely we'll be able to get in stacks (our goal on the flop barring a stupid runout) by just bet/bet/betting. If dude can spazz check/raise and then barrel over a weak looking cbet then I wouldn't hate a weak looking cbet. But I just think so few are going to do that plus it doesn't look like he absolutely spazzes with his bet sizing. So I just try to make the most I can by bombing every street. So I PSB (or even more) on the flop cuz this guy is never folding a draw to a single flop bet and if he can fold one pear good for him. I think we miss a lot of value overall by going smaller *unless* we're attempting to induce spazz.

I might just flat the turn donk. My reasoning for this is because with this huge SPR I no longer consider myself committed on this paired board and raising puts commitment more into play. It is certainly possible I may be missing some value here, but overall I'm going to see a river in position and see what happens (card-wise and bet-wise) and then evaluate whether a raise might be better than a call (or even a fold on a terrible card).

Is this guy ever going to play back at us if we do a small river bet? The less he is capable of playing back, the more I bet like super small here (like $50) just to get paid off by some hands. Although having said that we are targetting so very few hands here, mostly a fairly passive preflop AQ/KQ (can any other worse hand really call?) so I actually don't hate a check behind here (especially if he can get tricky facing a small bet).

GcluelessNLnoobG

Check back river. He's rarely calling with worse.

Nobody with 50% vpip is worth a **** so dont bother telling us how amazing his postflop ability is playing like a fish and showing down Q5o. If he wins lots of pots its probably because his strat is "randomly click buttons" . The only thing we can go off of is his range is garbage so target that accordingly.

Technically I feel a $75 river bet should get called by worse because most live players cant check back a pair so in his mind you'd do this as light as a pair of 9's, and because he's probably upset that he didnt freeze us with his donkbet.

Tucking tail and checking back river also isnt a huge leak since live players play to chase and most of our profit comes from taxing them trying to get there.

I like betting 50-60 otr if we dont have to worry about getting raised by anything but the nuts even though checking back isnt a mistake.

What worries me a little about betting the river is that V might think a Q is good and raise. It would really suck to fold the best hand here. It's honestly not worth it to me. I don't think betting river gets value often enough.

In the Q5 hand, was V in SB or BB? Not that playing Q5 from SB is OK, but it matters a little.

We aren’t anywhere close to being committed with a turn raise. We still have like 40% more than pot behind on the river. Moreover, if this dude is going to call us down with any queen, we should be fine getting all of the $ in the middle.

You’re right about preflop and flop. We should be folding this (I’d raise CO fwiw), and against dudes who make fishy preflop plays, we should take intellectually offensive sizes like full pot on this flop until given reason not to.

But really, we need to be raising turn. We’re in position and can make a good assessment of our action based on the river card.


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Nah, pre is a 100% open even in a tougher lineups and it’s not close. Having a low chance of being 3-bet and a big fish in the blinds makes it even better. I’d also open J9s from HJ and LJ. J8s depends on game specific factors for me.

Nit playstyle is easy to counter for good players and leaving money on the table vs bad ones.

Agree flop should be bigger and turn is a raise.

More pre, more flop, more turn. I guess there may be slim value on the river if you have a good eye and a microscope. I just check back.

Most donks I've seen have never been tricky. The donk/call on the turn followed by the check on the river is more often than not exactly what it looks like: a QX. Worst case scenarios are QJo or QcXc, but realistically if he donked the QQ turn, he's going to keep firing on the turn.

Either just x/x and call it a day, or try to figure out the amount your feel comfortable raising to get slightly more value.

Me, I'd probably just x/x and not think too hard. If you raise, yes you have a chance of a QX hand trying to bluff catch you, but you also run the risk of the hypothetical QcXC or QC calling you. Just get to the showdown and call it a day.

I don't get people not being able to find a bet on this river? Do we really think V is checking a full house to us on the river? What flushes does V have by the river after the Jc comes? I feel like you get called by this V with a Q often enough to make up for the few times you wind up value owning yourself. Obviously, that mindset changes at higher stakes but at 1/3 I think this river is a bet all day every day based on action and reads.