Hero (~$900): 20 something, winning image

V1 ($250): Not much on him besides typical weak passive player, not that relevant to hand.

V2 ($350): Maybe like 30, bushy beard, wearing a local hockey team's tshirt i think. relevant HH: bunch of limpers including V2, I make it 20 on the button with AA, 4 callers including V, flop is J62hh, checks to me, I bet, 2 Vs call. Turn is Qo, first V checks, V2 donk jams about 1/3 pot, I call...river J, V2 tables J9.

OTTH:

Someone raises to $10 from MP, V1 calls, I call from the SB with 22, V1 calls from BB...

Flop ($36): T92

I decide to lead for $25. V1 calls. V2 calls.

Turn ($110) 6

I lead for $70. V1 folds. V2 tanks for at least 90 seconds. He seemed quite hesitant to call, like had some forward motion with the 70 in his hand, then brought it back, 30 more seconds, finally calls. (I was a little worried he was hollywooding 78 at this point, but after watching him more, he seemed genuine, but obv couldn't be certain.

River ($250) 3

Hero?

So I've been putting a lot of thought into "correct" or "most profitable" river sizing lately. Like it's kind of a disaster for our WR if we bet $175 here and he folds when he would have called $100. On the flip size, it's a disaster for our WR if we bet $100 and he calls and would have called $200. In this hand, for example, it's really hard for him to have anything better than T9 (and really that is the only 2pr combo that makes sense, and I think it's super unlikely because of the way he played the hand). That being said, I think his range is heavily weighted towards Tx type hands. But he also seems very sticky.

Basically 2 questions then:

1) What is your sizing for this hand?

2) What factors do you rely on to determine your choice of sizing in general?

With the obvious draw getting there on the turn and the fact that, like you said, the best hand he can possibly have that we want to get value from is T9 (which often raises flop), we are most likely looking to get value from JT-AT here. For that reason I don't think we want to bomb the river, as I'm not sure Tx always calls unless he's a super station.

However, he definitely seems sticky enough to get some decent value here from his 1-pair hands, around 1/2 pot, and I think I go around $115-130 here.

If he didn't seem keen on calling the turn then it seems like it'll hard to bomb the river and get called, the river obviously doesn't hit his hand at all. If he had a hand like JQ, KQ, J8 type of hand and missed and you think he is going to bluff then there a small (very small) argument for a C/R hoping he does have a stab at it, however this line seems unlikely as he will just check back any pair in his hand and will hurt you hourly.

If he had any sort to Tx hand he might call a bet for around $90-$120. He's only got around 250 behind and if he's reluctant to put 70 in on the turn then it'll give him a good enough price to call with a 1 pair hand.

If he did have T9 then he's going to call a significant bet, say $140-$160. If he's sticky and he did have 9T i think it'll be hard for him to fold if you jammed, its the only combo that you beat that will call a jam so seems unlikely, but i think you'll get called more often if you just bet normally. Again, if he seemed reluctant then i doubt he has this type of hand so id just go for a smaller bet.

Personally, id bet 120, he seemed reluctant and id be surprised if he tried the pump fake with top 2. He'll just call with top pair or maybe jacks if he's quite passive, but fold any missed draws and he doesn't seem like the type of player to bluff missed draws.

Is it a disaster if he calls $200 30% of the time but $100 50% of the time?