Quote:
Originally Posted by ham on rye
i think Kx, pair+FD, naked FD and some combo draws are all in his range here.
OOP against a range like that, i think you need to 3b. and as others have pointed out, you have to balance 1) keeping in 1p hands that you are crushing, and 2) not giving too good a price to his draws, which we think he is willing to chase.
i would lean towards a larger 3b, like 115ish. i say this because
1) most live villains in this type of game have a hard time raise/folding top pair here. even when they "raise to find out where they're at," they often play on when they shouldn't. if he folds, he probably did not have a hand that could call large bets on future streets anyway, and the options for getting value OOP are all tricky. plus, lots of cards can kill your action.
2) our read says this villain is likely to call too much and too often with his draws.
3) from a meta-game perspective, i like that the 3b gives him pause in the future before he clicks it back in position hoping to get a free card or "find out where he's at".
4) we have an aggro image, making him more likely to call wide with both his weak made hands and his draws.
5) we should be playing for stacks. if we flat, we have 440 behind and only 150 in the pot, meaning we either need to get a raise in on a future street, or get him to call two relatively large bets on the turn and river.
115 would leave a pot of 280 with 375 behind on the turn, making it easier to get stacks in by the river and still leaving us with a lot of sizing options depending on what comes on the turn. hell, i wouldn't even mind 125 against some villains.
I'd be interested to know what your plan is for turns? I like the 3b sizing but it makes the turn awkward. He's passive so we cant consider crai. If we 3b to 135 we can jam turns a bit more naturally, although I'm pretty sure we lose value by doing that.