The following hand came up yesterday in a LLNLHE game at the local casino.

UTG is a new player who has just sat down (first rotation). Older asian man, who bought in for slightly less than the maximum. I know he is a fairly regular player (other regulars recognize him) but have never played with him. He has played one of his first few hands and won a medium pot without showing his cards. Hero has made some hands before UTG sat down and is largest stack at the table ($500) .

1/2 blinds
UTG limps $2
MP limps $2
Hero raises to 15 on button with 1010
blinds fold, UTG and MP Call

Pot: ~$45 after rake

Flop: K Q 10

Checked around to hero
Hero bets $35
UTG raises to $70 (min raise) He has about 160 behind
MP folds
Hero raises to $235 (putting villain all in
Villian calls

Turn and River brick (don't remember exact cards)

Villain shows AJ and wins pot.
Final pot: $505~



My question is, is this simply a spot where we are doomed to lose or did I overplay my hand given the board.

My thought process: With no real read on opponent's playstyle, min raise was confusing. I assumed he had hit the flop, since this is clearly hitting my range and he should consider my bet to be real here. I know preflop he is raising / 3 betting QQ or KK ~99% of the time so I'm certainly not worried about set over set. So essentially, I'm giving myself the 3rd nuts. AJ and J9 were concerns of mine, but I know I have 33% equity against either of them if I shove (not good but not completely crushed).

The board is extremely draw heavy but I have a strong hand and a very wide range here. Also, there are many turn cards I do not want to see, any heart, ace, jack or 9 are likely to cost me this pot when villian bets them, and could force me to shut down or face a difficult river decision if I check and show weakness.

I haven't crunched his range equity (still a noob with range vs hand equities), but I figured he was likely to have a combo draw, made straight and possibly K-Q. I'm 2:1 dog against a made straight, and figured that I have more equity over his draws than he has over me when he has a straight. I reasoned that if this was true (again, haven't spent the time to actually calculate them - this was just my thought process at the table) I might as well push and take my advantage as well as avoid what could be a difficult turn decision.


In retrospect, I'm wondering if this is too aggressive of a line on a co-ordinated board. Villian obviously has something, but with no idea of his playstyle is it worth it to fold such a strong hand waiting on more information? My range is very wide here; something I want to be true most of the time I flop a set, and min-raise is confusing to me. Even if a tight player min-raises me, I doubt I would fold getting over 4:1( possible leak?), I think I would have to at least call and see what they do on the turn. Villain's range is extremely wide until min-raise and I have difficulty narrowing it at the table vs unknown player.

Any thoughts on line / thought process would be appreciated. Thanks

Bbv

Sent from my Nexus 5 using 2+2 Forums

You played it fine. KK and QQ are unlikely given pre. J9 seems unlikely to UTG limp/call. AJ sucks but there are tons of KQ, KJ, QJ, JT, QT, FDs (especially Txhh), maybe AK... in his range

He's an older Asian dude... Obviously a math genius. Snap fold!

I thought this also at the time, but how many of these hands is V really min-raising?

I think it's totally fine getting it in here. I even think it's the best play unless you have a super solid read that he always has a straight here (andI think J9 is very unlikely) so it's just too rare. And in that case you can't even fold because of the price you're getting.

Against AJo on the flop (worst case scenario) we still have ~35% equity which is excellent. Against other hands he could do this with, FDs, two pair, combo draws with J+pair type stuff, we are doing really well. Factor in the money already in the pot and jamming is great. A case could be made for flatting too though since you're in position and the board pairing won't kill action from a straight.