After five hours Hero (50's white guy) is the table veteran and was down a bunch after a KK vs QQ debacle about three hours earlier. Has been card dead for the past two hours, but has been quietly making his way back to nearly even mainly by exploiting his nitty image by occasionally reraising or even three betting pre flop with crap, then c-betting and getting folds. Hero hasn't shown down in quite a while.

Villain is middle-aged black guy who has been at the table an hour. No particular reads other than that he seems solid, hasn't gotten out of line, and should be aware of Hero's nitty image.

2/4 spread limit, 200 max bet, 300 max buy in. Villain about 350, Hero covers.

Four limps to Hero in hijack with 88 and he calls hoping to set mine (limpers have stacks ranging from 300-500). Villain raises to 15 on button, all limpers call, and Hero is pretty happy to call for 11 more into about a $70 pot.

Flop A88 (now Hero is REALLY happy).

Four limps to Hero and he, thinking about his nitty image, is really afraid that a bet from him will get a cascade of folds, plus with Villain's raise from button pre he's hoping that V either has something and will bet, or might cbet stab at the nice little pot.

Hero checks, Villain bets 35, all fold to Hero, who calls. (Hero is thinking that a check-raise is going to be way too strong, and V likely has something.)

Turn is 5, pot is $140.

Hero thinks a while, and finally checks. His thinking that betting would represent an A or set, and V, if he's been betting a lower pocket pair, would fold to it. If V has an A he should bet again, and if he has air he might fire again, or might check and then get unlucky and improve his air on the river. Villain checks behind and Hero is bummed.

River is A, final board A88 5 A, pot $140.

Hero now thinks V most likely has air, possibly a pocket pair, and that his pre-flop raise was a (weak) attempt to steal the limps, and maybe, if Hero is lucky, Villain was holding Ax and has now boated up.

Hero bets $20, hoping that it will look like a weak stab at the pot or a blocking bet, and is really, really hoping that V does in fact have the an ace and will raise big with his boat.

(Note: Hero is, of course, REALLY hoping that villain holds AA for the BBJ.)

So, before revealing the rest of the hand, Hero is fully aware that he failed to bet out with a monster but, as played in real time, thought he had decent reasons for doing so.

I'm okay with checking the flop but once the turn goes check/check I think you should bet the max and make it look like you are trying to force him off a chop. He would call with any ace and fold everything else, but you aren't making much money off of "everything else" anyway.

Shove/bet the maximum on the river AINEC

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What they said. If he has a weaker ace that he was pot controlling on the turn he is never folding. His calling range here is very inelastic meaning I doubt he ever calls with 1010-KK. Gotta maximize the value if you cooler him. $201 on river.

We would have to assume that we are rarely getting raised on this river, unless ofcourse you do have the BBJ. If we had a read that Villain is the type to try to fold out a chop, then I actually like the small bet. But since we do not, then we should assume that he will almost always call with an A to chop, and like SemiPro said will fold all 1010-KK. So, our job should be to extract maximum value from that A. He'll obviously call $20. Will he call $60? $100? $150? Ask yourself, and as soon as you start going hmm, maybe? Then go back to the amount you feel he WILL call. This could be $20 or it could be AI, just depends on the villain.

Looks fine to me. Preflop and flop are obvious here. Turn is OK once your heads up, you want villain to bet again. Once the turn goes check/check you have lots of options on river and none are really likely to make a lot of money.

Check and hope villain bets, bet small and try to induce a raise, bet for value and bet max might all work here. It entirely depends on your read of the situation. In abstract, I like the bet max and hope villain has a weak ace that was pot controlling turn.

Thanks for the replies.

Maybe I didn't hamburger this up quite as badly as I thought.

Villain thought for a bit after Hero's $20 river bet, then called, and showed

River is an easy ship/max bet. donking small in hopes of a raise is just losing value. very common for people at this level to not raise rivers for value when they think its a chop. BUT they are happy to call a huge bet if they think its a chop, not realising they are calling to win half.

I'm bombing the river here all day. he either has an A or he doesnt/you either get paid off or you don't. With V raising pre, he likely could have an A. No one is ever folding an A otr.

This is a situation where having a nitty image works against you. Why would villain raise a nit here? If you just had 89, are you calling a raise on this river? It is very unlikely he is losing on river, but a raise only gets called by chops and the one hand that does beat him.

With a bluffy/aggro image he might raise because he figures to be ahead of so much of your range, and against a station he can expect to get called by a worse a lot.

I wouldn't necessarily say that he put you on 88. Based on your image, the only hands you could have are 88/Ax. So raising makes absolutely no sense since all that would accomplish is a full rake (if it's not full already?).


Not to be rude, but you should re-think what villain should do on the river here with an Ace. Is this a spot where you think YOU should raise? I mean, if you make the top full with one card, would you raise here? Alarm bells should be going off by now.

Let's break it down, with everything anyone could possibly have on this board:

1. A semi-bluff (22-77, 99-JJ): You think villain could have QQ/KK and will fold to a bet. You bet, he raises you fold.

2. A full-out bluff: (xx): You think villain could have an 8, pair, anything but an A. You bet, he raises you fold.

3. Aces Full (Ax): You have a full house and are betting for value. Villain raises, you call/shove he calls. You chop and the house gets an extra dollar.

4. Quads (88): You have the nuts. You're betting for value. You bet, he raises, you ship he hates his life but calls and loses.

Can we see how his raise can not possibly accomplish anything positive? The times you're full of it you just fold. The times you chop the house wins (as always), and the times you have quads he loses his stack.

So, your thinking should not be that "If he has an Ace he should raise." Your thinking should be: What could he have here and what will he do with it? If he has 1010-KK then he probably won't call very often and he'll surely never raise. If he has an Ace, he will probably call. He might raise some of the time, but for sure he's going to always at least call. Ok, so how much will he call? In other words, how much can I get him to call? And then it starts to get interesting because your image/villains image/history/game flow all should be considered. Again, it could be $20 or it could be $800.

^^^

wrong.

You played it fine. If pot is 140 on the river, you can bet like 45 OTR and still get paid off by K high and pocket pairs 99 - KK.

If villian has an A, you are going to get it all in on the river anyway.

So I see your river bet as only giving up 25 - 30 dollars in value. As you describe your table image, there is just not a lot of value in this hand.

No. This is a standard zeebo theorem spot. People will not fold full houses, especially nutted ones. These spots are the time many people miss huge value trying to just nickel and dime and get something out of their villain. FWIW I don't think 99-KK calls all that often either way, and another A is just going to flat assuming a chop. These spots don't come around every day, and as DGI would say this is a spot to prison rape your opponents.

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grunch

As played, with your image he's most likely folding anything but an ace to a real value bet on the river.

You are trying to induce a raise on the river, but I honestly can't see that happening too often with your image.
That being said, lets say you try to get value from underpairs, K high, and the A by betting X. With your image, anything but the A will most likely fold. If he has the A he's going to call almost anything (because that's what LLNL players do when full on that board). Would you rather bet 20 and have him call you 100% of the time? Or bet 200 and have him call you 15% of the time? Look at the different bet sizes and see how often you have to get called for max profits.

absolutely. if you know, or have strong indication that he has top boat, shove that all day.

but as played, hero has repped trip 8s on the flop with the call, and villian's range is still anywhere from 55 - AA with a few KQ and KJ's thrown in there.

with that perspective, if hero shoves, he is only going to get called by Ax and AA. everything else, he folds.

if he blockish bets on the river, he is going to get raised by AA, and most likely, any Ax.

The fact that this villian chose to just smooth call with top boat, after hero has repped bottom boat is an anomaly.

Perhaps it's just my experience (and it wouldn't work for someone perceived as a nit), but I've seen a lot of spaz all-in bluffs OTR in live 1/2, and likewise been in games where jamming the river with the nuts makes more sense than trying to coax out the most value. An all-in gets people soul-reading, defending their manliness, etc often enough that in some games, you actually will get a call a stupid amount of the time like 20%. I wouldn't do it if I thought someone would call a PSB, but if you have someone crushed and are regretting how little you think you can squeeze out of them, against some fish I think a shove has higher EV than finding the largest "normal" bet they might call.