Quote:
Originally Posted by m0mmy
As a rule of thumb its good to have 35x the raise size in effective stacks when calling with a suited ace. So to call here it would be better to have atleast 525. With your stack size i would lean towards a fold but given that your in the big blind verse late position players i dont hate a call/3bet. Definetely raise flop. You need to get the money in before they realize there beat. I would bet 75.
Just curious where you came up with the 35x number in order to be profitable. Not that I disagree that it is definitely profitable at that number, but I did some math years ago and came up with 20x to be slightly +EV to break even depending on the table and how often they will stack off post.
One distinction I will make is this is for suited wheels and NOT A6-A9 suited. Those latter hands go in the muck even when I am in late position or come in for a raise in limped pots against weak opponents.
We have a 6.25% chance of making a flush by the river or 16-1. So in a static hand where we call pre-flop and there is no raising allowed post SO we see all 5 cards, we will win 15 hands and lose 1. OP calls $15, so 15x15=225 plus $15 for the one time we win we would need a $240 stack to break even if the odds hold with no variance. And this is for HU.
Now with 2 suited cards, we have a 10.94% chance of flopping a 9 out flush draw or 8.1-1. Which gives us a ~19% chance of making our flush on the turn and a ~34% of making our flush on the river. About the same odds as set mining with a pocket pair which 20X seems to be agreeable? It's what i use anyway. Again this is for HU.
We also have to figure in the times we will make a straight. With 2 connectors the odds of flopping an 8 out open ender is 10.45% or 8.6-1. Obviously with a wheel we have to make a gutshot straight or possibly flop a double belly buster. My tiny little brain says we need to use ~3% for the flop, but if we do flop the gutshot straight, we have ~8.5% on the turn and ~16% by the river.
Not going into detail when we flop 2pair+, but that certainly adds to our equity. Again this is for HU and the reason for playing suited wheels multi-way. If you are playing short stack 1/2, then by all means, raise it up and try to take it down pre or with a C-bet on the flop. I mainly play in 2/5 200+ BB poker and think that is a big mistake to make that play.
All of the above is well and good, so the hard part comes in how to figure out how many times we make the nut flush and the board pairs on the river and we lose to a full house. Or we flop 4 to the flush and have to call flop fold turn or call turn and fold the river. Guess that is my long winded way of asking my original question of where did you come up with 35x?
As far as playing this hand OOP when we get an Axx flop, I generally default to a small C/R. If your opponent(s) have a big Ace, they will let you know, but I am amazed at how often you will get folds. Obviously if multiple opponents are showing strength we can just C/F and move on to the next hand with only $15 invested in the pot.
As far as playing hands like this in general OOP, I'll save my rant on that for another post. Most of you probably quit reading 500 words ago anyway.