Quote:
Originally Posted by SwolyswoND
The turn changes nothing to Hero's perceived range on this board given PF and flop action. Hero can't have QQ given PF. Hero won't play AhQx this way given flop action, as the Q never vaults him into the lead. Hero is never cold calling flop with KhTx, so the Q adding a straight draw means nothing. Same thing with QhJx - Hero isn't cold calling flop with that.
That's why the flop cold call was poor - it narrows our range way too much.
Perceived hero range contains a ton of AhX hands as many villains will play this as a check-call (even if hero knows it's pretty bad).
Perceived range matters more than actual range. When you're at a 1/2 table with a bunch of bad players, your perceived range will usually be that of a bad player.
This is part of why I don't like a ship on turn. Betting small, like $75, will at least allow for some doubt that hero has AhX (even if hero would never actually do this). IMO, villain is more likely to ship over $75 than calling $160 all in. Although villain's range is probably strong enough, and remaining stacks small enough, and villain bad enough to probably end up getting it in no matter what.