No. Calling ranges are going to be far more sensitive to a shove than you’re letting on in a spot where we have ~85% and an impossibly narrow ck shoving range in a 3b pot/these stacks/this texture.

He folded to a min raise, he had nothing else of value to get. Unless he's a spazz all his other hands aren't firing on the turn

My last hand of poker I played last session out, I raised TT preflop, saw an Ace high drawy flop in position against a very loose bluffy player and a tighter player, cbet the flop, got check/called by the very loose bluffy player, and when he checked the blank turn, I shoved a PSB into his Ace.

The point of that little story is that (a) even mediocre players do (perhaps) stoopid stuff some of the time when given half a chance, and (b) had I checked back the turn I would have at least considered paying off a river bet some percentage of the time (not all the time, but some of the time). If you want to eliminate those possibilities, keep check/raising the flop with you monsters.

GimoG

There are many problems with leading. One of them is that if you start leading flop, what does that do to your checking range? How are you going to balance both ranges together? By checking your entire range here, you give villain no information which makes you harder to play against.

The SPR is low so the flop checking through is fine. Obviously we don't love a heart turn, but this is rare and we can probably still get value from AK, at least one street. I am check-calling all day here and also check-calling turn.

Edit: Lol, didn't realize I had already posted in this thread. Oh well, guess I'll leave it...

Obv flop check/call esp with the Ah out there, x/jam is horrible

GG, seriously, in your thousands of hours playing live poker, how often have you actually done this, or actually induced this type of situation vs a tight player? Great story and all, but I wager it barely happens (we pretty much play the same games, so I know the player pool), so trying to accommodate it in our modeling seems to pointlessly complicate things. But hey, if everyone thinks this guy's gonna read our soul & bet/fold AK vs a XR all in, while simultaneously blast off w/ KhKx on a heart turn if we x/c, I guess we better play it passive . . .

I'm never saying he's folding Ax to a check/raise (he isn't at this depth). Nor am I saying he's always putting in 2 postflop bets for stack with KK- (he'll mostly only put in one, but once and a while he'll put in two). I'm just comparing the two situations (passively check/calling two streets albeit risking scare cards versus aggroly check/raising the flop) and it seems to me that we are far more likely to win that second bet using the passive method in this spot.

GimoG

:grunch:

It seems like check raising strengthens V's range to such an extent that the only hand he can call you with that you're ahead of is AK. He's gonna fold basically everything else.

Check/Calling keeps V's range wide as he can still have his entire range on the turn and even fire again with a lot of them depending on the turn card.

You don't want to strengthen V's range too much because TAG 3! ranges are narrow to begin with and you have the VAST majority of those hands crushed. Because of this, we want to keep as many of those crushed hands in V's range.

I'm never donking in this situation unless V is a complete boneless spazz who's been lighting money on fire all night. You're not allowing V to make a big mistake when you done into him like that.

Appreciate the lively discussion! My takeaway is that I didn't totally botch it but that check calling on flop and checking back most turns would have been better. Thanks again for all the insightful comments.

As I have been saying in other threads - I would lead in this spot. It under-reps our hand and is a lot easier to play for stack than the typical line of check/call flop and check/raise turn.

I've posted in the other thread as to why this spot isn't remotely the same.

As for the ease of getting stacks in: the SPR is lol 2.5. Attempting to play for stacks is not going to be an issue.

GcluelessNLnoobG

It is if V has QQ/KK: 12 combos.

It is if V has AT or even some instances, AQ: 24 combos. A lot of players in these games have learned to slow down.

It is if any flush card or broadway card shows up on turn: 23 cards.

If people are still stacking off with Ax in your game - ignore everything I am writing and go with the good ol' check/call flop, and check/raise turn line at this low SPR.

But if they're not, keep reading...

If V is holding Ax - V is not folding to a donk bet on a flush draw and broadway board. Hero's range is also under-repped, which may induce a raise, in which case we can decide whether to flat and CR turn, or 3bet small and shove turn.

If V is holding QQ/KK - V will likely cbet and folds to a CR or check behind on turn. This is a low value and potentially really bad RIO scenario given that QQ/KK is likely going to only put in the cbet, and gets to see both turn and river for free. V is also free rolling middle set with essentially uncapped IO.

With donk bet, our range is under-repped and LLSNL players just don't auto fold QQ/KK on Axx flop with broadway and flush draws. We also increase the likelihood of extracting value on one more street by increasing the odds of V bluff catching us.

Rest of V's range is probably worth just a cbet from him anyway, and I rather target the part of his range that I can extract real value than just the cbet.

All's I'm saying regarding the ease of getting stacks in is that if villain cbets just $50 on the flop (2/3 PSB, reasonable?) that will leave us with just $160 back with $180 in the pot and still 2 streets of poker left. Donking isn't a necessity to make it easier to play for stacks; it is already going to be trivial to do. Not saying villain will always play for stacks with KK-, just saying that we can still attempt to play for them by the river even if only 1 single bet goes in on the flop/turn. Much more reason to donk a street (including flop) if SPR was like ~8 and 3 postflop bets would be required to play for stacks.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I'm starting to see eye to eye with GG on post flop play. I must be turning into a nit in my old age lol. Now i just need my winrate to match yours and i'll be all set.

You think of it as "very little money left" and V is never folding. Again, it might be true in your game.

But in most LLSNL games that I have played, $160 is still a scary bet. People do not think they're committed.

I thought it was rather clear that I disagree that it's trivial to be stacking off in this spot.

So let's look at few scenarios:

After check/check turn...

-Broadway card falls. Hero shoves $160 into $180, and V calls with worse?
-Flush card falls. Hero shoves $160 into $180, and V calls with worse?
-Blank card falls. Hero shoves $160 into $180, and V calls with worse?

Not saying my games are tougher (they're not), but I just don't see players calling in these spots often enough to take this passive line.

What I do see that happen very often are:

-Ax checks back a street and calls a medium size bet on river.
-KK/QQ sigh calls or sigh folds to medium river bet.
-Scared card falls, we both check river.

I'm not saying the results are going to be awesome taking this line. But I'm simply comparing it to the alternative line; you think you're going to do better by donking? Or check/raising the flop?

GcluelessalternativesnoobG

Sorry you must have missed my previous posts, should I copy and paste them again for you?

I think this answers my question.

Gwe'regoingtohavetoagreetodisagreeatthispoint,imoG