Quote:
Originally Posted by Ponnie
Only 2 flushes beat you in a limped pot where he might have any semi connected spades, or a set and you say he overvalues his hands so he's clearly shipping any flush and any set here.
This is the incorrect way to think about this scenario. More than "2 flushes" beat us. In fact, there's 8 spades left unaccounted for, which gives a maximum of 28 flush combos, and 13 of those combos beat us. And he's more likely to have the big combos than the small combos.
Moreover we're facing 350 to call into a pot of 570 if my math is right, so we have to win over 38% of the time to make this a profitable call. If he's only doing this w/ flushes and the 6 low set combos (we have 65.5% vs those), and say he moves in with 9 flush combos we beat (he folds stuff like K4s for example), then he'll need 3 combos drawing dead to us before we can call it off. If this guy is spewy and will jam 64ss here uncritically, then sure call it off.
I think we should just be calling the xr on the flop FYI if our intent isn't to exploitatively get it in against a weaker player.