Quote:
Originally Posted by Koss
Seems like a lot of fps on the turn Seems like a good board to bet/bet/bet, with the river bet being a shove. If you get raised at any point then you can decide how to go from there.
+1 to this.
This thread is a great example of how a $40 decision on the flop can cost you 20 times that by the end of the hand.
Because what were you trying to represent with that flop donk? You didn't 3! pre, so you probably don't have an overpair. And with a board this wet, anyone with an ounce of sense would expect a made hand like 2P or trip 8's to lead for more than 1/3 pot. (Assuming your villains even have an ounce of sense, and are thinking anything at all beyond, "hey, I have an OESD / overpair, I call!")
To me at least, a $40 donk in this spot screams "blocking bet with a draw" ... and every draw in the world got there on the turn. After that and your turn C/R, in V1's shoes I'd have been sorely tempted to find a fold with my straight right then and there, and there's zero chance I'd have called off another $340 OTR.
Your SPR on the flop is 1,070/120 =
9. That's great news, because it means you can get AI by the river without an overbet or a raise on any street! But it also means that if you're going to come out betting, it needs to be fairly strong (unless you expect a raise from somewhere else at some point in the hand).
Let's look at what happens if you lead out for $90 OTF (still only a 3/4-pot bet) instead of $40:
Flop: Hero bets $90, V1 calls
(“LDO I haz grate draw!”), V2 calls
(“LDO my JJ iz still good!”). Pot is now $390 instead of $240 and Hero has $980 behind.
Turn: As soon as the Qd hits, your goal for this hand needs to shift. You aren’t stacking off an overpair or bare trips on this board, so you need to hope someone hit a big draw and set it up to play for stacks if he did. Your turn bet should thus be small enough to keep the top of V1’s range in the hand but big enough to pot-commit him. Two ways to do this:
(A) lead out about 2/3-3/4 pot ($250-300), which will bloat the pot but probably fold out most trips hands; or
(B) make a cheap stab of $150ish, hoping V1 floats with trips and comes over the top with his made hands.
Option B is worth considering against aggressive V's (since they aren't likely to put you on a monster) or if the stacks here were deeper (yielding an SPR for which you'd need a raise somewhere to get AI by the river) but I don’t think we need to get fancy in this case, so let’s assume we choose option A. We'll even be conservative and bet $250, making the pot $890.
River: Shove your last $730 into the $890 pot and offer V 2.2:1 odds to look you up.
Even if your shove only gets called 1/3 of the time, your EV from this hand has more than doubled vs. the line you took ($1,133 vs. $560). If you can get away with a bigger turn bet and/or when one of your V’s wake up with a flush, it will be quite a bit higher than this.
By getting so little of your stack in OTF, you put yourself in a situation where your only path to winning a huge pot was making a strong-arm move later in the hand. You’re holding a monster, on a wet flop, in a pot in which a bet-bet-bet line should be enough to get the money in .... there’s just no need to get tricky here.