Playing 2-5 in my local casino when this hand occured.

Villian1 CO ($1500): New young guy who moved to the table about an hr ago. Has been "table captain" since moving to the table. Has played a decent range of hands and has been going for extremely thin value and somehow has been good.

Villian2 Btn ($1200): Middle aged man who limps almost every hand and plays passively post flop. He had flopped 2 flushes in the previous 10 hands against my TPTK in which I think I lost the bare minimum on.

Hero Sb($1100): Up a couple hundred dollars after a portion of first buy in before reloading. Have been raising more hands than other at the table since it has been extremely loose passive. 5-6 limpers every hand.

Quirky note: The flop has come out X88 an incredible amount of times over the last hour and Villian1 has had an 8 at least 3 times.

1 limper till it gets to Villian1 who also limps, Villian2 raises to $30 (previous raises have been 15). Hero looks down at 9c9s and makes the call along with limper and Villian1.

Flop (120): 9d 8h 8d
Hero leads small for $40. Limper folds, Villian1 calls and Villian2 calls.

Turn(240): Qd
Hero checks, Villian1 bets $75, Villian2 folds, and Hero makes it $160 and Villian1 calls.

River(560) Ah
Hero bets $340 and Villian1 tanks for minutes before folding.

Analysis: I am putting V2 on a big pocket pair due to the raise size preflop. V1 could have anything after 2 callers. When I flop the full house I debated on leading small to induce raise from an 8 (since everyone literally was playing 8s or from V2 and his big pair) or check raising. I opted to lead out small. My turn play is where I really need advice on how to get most money. I think a lead out is good because a lead flop, checkraise turn line is super strong on this board. River: against a super thin value better, will he bet an 8 on this board with a flush and straight draw on board? Is it better to check raise river again or just bomb river and hope to get a call from one of those hands?

Please feel free to bash, critique, applaud, ignore, etc. Always looking for information.

Thanks guys

I'd lead bigger on the flop....about 90. It'll look like your charging the diamond/straight draws and they won't expect you to lead a monster. On the turn, bet half the pot, or a little less to induce a raise, now that a diamond and straight card hit.

River will depend on villain; with this one, I probably check to induce one of his "thin value" bets, unless you feel he will check back this time.

definitely lead bigger on flop, at least half pot, even if you're trying to make it look like a blocking bet. if V2 has a big pocket pair like you expect, he can't fold. Diamonds, OESDs, 8s, 9s are all never folding here

AP on the turn, someone who c/c flop leads into two others on a draw-completing card. i dont think he's folding - raise more so we can possibly stack him if he has the nut flush. 250? 300? whatever you think he'll call if he has Ax dd.

the c/r on the turn should set off some warning bells to villain, i would just lead

I think you need to do about 65 on flop. Doubtful anyone goes anywhere for 25 more. If you do that Villian will probably lead closer to 100-130ish. I hate your c/raiser. Min raise screams strength. As played I like c/r to 225-250ish. With a bigger raise ott you could probably get a 300$ call on the river or you could try and make it look bluffy with an overbet. Since he folded it is easy to say an overbet probably wouldn't be called but it looks
More bluffy imo and maybe he thinks harder about calling

With that many draws on there, bet at least half pot, $75 is good. On turn bet close to pot and hope someone has a flush or straight. Bomb river. We're going for max value when villain has a strong second best hand instead of going for value against weak hands like JJ

Definitely need to bet bigger flop and lead turn...as played don't check turn lead for 145 and if flatted check rvr to induce

Spoiler Alert: Villian had J 10 for the straight

If we specifically knew he had a straight, does this change anything? I put him on an 8 and in my opinion there isn't much difference between trips and a straight on this board but interested to hear what you guys have to say.

Your turn CR screams "call me!"

With your call me bet and giant river bomb, it's pretty straight forward what you're holding.

I'd much rather lead more on flop (say, $75). Build the pot early on a smashed but still drawy board. I would lead the turn smallish (2/5 pot) afterwards to possibly induce. I don't like the c/r size. 8x would peel for a larger size (say $200 total) to try to break your perceived flush. A flush will call more. The only thing you're gaining money off of is a straight with the C/r and size.

As played, leading river is fine and I like the sizing. Once we c/r turn we can't hope for a flush to bet for us again. If I had bet flop & turn I may go for a river c/r, hoping villain puts us on bare 8x and Vbets flushes/straights.

Seems like a lot of fps on the turn Seems like a good board to bet/bet/bet, with the river bet being a shove. If you get raised at any point then you can decide how to go from there.

What does everyone think about villians call with JT on the cutoff? I think he played it fine as far as getting away from a second best hand he was not committed. Although should he call the turn raise since he cannot improve any further?

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+1 to this.

This thread is a great example of how a $40 decision on the flop can cost you 20 times that by the end of the hand.

Because what were you trying to represent with that flop donk? You didn't 3! pre, so you probably don't have an overpair. And with a board this wet, anyone with an ounce of sense would expect a made hand like 2P or trip 8's to lead for more than 1/3 pot. (Assuming your villains even have an ounce of sense, and are thinking anything at all beyond, "hey, I have an OESD / overpair, I call!")

To me at least, a $40 donk in this spot screams "blocking bet with a draw" ... and every draw in the world got there on the turn. After that and your turn C/R, in V1's shoes I'd have been sorely tempted to find a fold with my straight right then and there, and there's zero chance I'd have called off another $340 OTR.

Your SPR on the flop is 1,070/120 = 9. That's great news, because it means you can get AI by the river without an overbet or a raise on any street! But it also means that if you're going to come out betting, it needs to be fairly strong (unless you expect a raise from somewhere else at some point in the hand).

Let's look at what happens if you lead out for $90 OTF (still only a 3/4-pot bet) instead of $40:

Flop: Hero bets $90, V1 calls (“LDO I haz grate draw!”), V2 calls (“LDO my JJ iz still good!”). Pot is now $390 instead of $240 and Hero has $980 behind.

Turn: As soon as the Qd hits, your goal for this hand needs to shift. You aren’t stacking off an overpair or bare trips on this board, so you need to hope someone hit a big draw and set it up to play for stacks if he did. Your turn bet should thus be small enough to keep the top of V1’s range in the hand but big enough to pot-commit him. Two ways to do this:

(A) lead out about 2/3-3/4 pot ($250-300), which will bloat the pot but probably fold out most trips hands; or
(B) make a cheap stab of $150ish, hoping V1 floats with trips and comes over the top with his made hands.

Option B is worth considering against aggressive V's (since they aren't likely to put you on a monster) or if the stacks here were deeper (yielding an SPR for which you'd need a raise somewhere to get AI by the river) but I don’t think we need to get fancy in this case, so let’s assume we choose option A. We'll even be conservative and bet $250, making the pot $890.

River: Shove your last $730 into the $890 pot and offer V 2.2:1 odds to look you up.

Even if your shove only gets called 1/3 of the time, your EV from this hand has more than doubled vs. the line you took ($1,133 vs. $560). If you can get away with a bigger turn bet and/or when one of your V’s wake up with a flush, it will be quite a bit higher than this.

By getting so little of your stack in OTF, you put yourself in a situation where your only path to winning a huge pot was making a strong-arm move later in the hand. You’re holding a monster, on a wet flop, in a pot in which a bet-bet-bet line should be enough to get the money in .... there’s just no need to get tricky here.

Grunch:

2/3 pot on the flop, maybe even more if you've got a laggy image. You can get lots of value from over pairs as you can have any number of 1000 draws here.
1/2-2/3 pot the turn. I'd likely half pot the turn, but I'd use timing tells to decide how strong people are on the flop.
Shove the river for anything 2/3 pot or less. Otherwise value bet like 2/5 - 1/2 the pot if people looked weak on the turn.