Flopped broadway, flat or raise?
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 786
On the flop we are looking at a 68% equity and 9% chop.
Board: AsTcJh
Equity Win Tie
BU/hero 77.64% 68.65% 8.99% { KhQs }
V2/SB 10.06% 5.47% 4.59% { 66+, A2s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
V1/UTG 12.30% 7.13% 5.17% { 88+, A7s+, KTs+, QJs, J9s+, T9s, 98s, ATo+, KQo, QJo, JTo, T9o }
Even if we tighten their ranges to adjust for a flop bet/call by eliminating some lower PP, Ax etc the turn didnt change much. We are probably go to about 80% equity and chop shouldnt change much. Eliminating the SB doesnt increase our equity that much. We go up to 75% equity with 5-7% chop. So we are given up ~10% equity in a potential 200bb pot to still have a strangle on a potential 250bb+pot.
68%*230bb=156bb
78%*200bb=156bb
b/e is around 30bb. Looking at it like this is close - V2 called 10bb and bet is 17.5 on the turn. So I reluctantly :-) agree to raise to make it easier to get stacks in on the river. We probably arent getting any more money from V2 range assuming stacks are going in on the river (V1 leads, we shove, SB folds).
lesson learned - dont disagree with dgi.
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 1,486
i would probably flat flop and turn
then bomb the river if checked to on a brick to make it look like i have KJ QJ KT QT trying to buy the pot
or 109
if it was more multiway i would probably raise flop
as played as someone has said his 35 on the turn is very weak, almost always one pair or a weak two pair that is bet/folding
also the nit never has a set or 2 pr here so you probabu have them drawing dead
call turn hoping for overcall on turn for more value