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Old 06-17-2016, 12:07 PM   #1
callmejc
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Flopped bottom set 4 ways but do I have to fold turn?

$1/2 NL in Oklahoma. Effective stacks - $250. Hero is early 20's competent player with $600 behind.

Folds to the CO (kinda old calling-station/nit) who limps, Hero OTB looks down at 66 and raises to $10. SB (younger guy who has bluffed twice) calls, Villian in BB calls (younger guy recently sat down who is drinking, just got it all-in 1010 vs AQ and lost 3 hands ago) and old-man limper calls.

Flop 6c 8h Qc

Checks to Hero who bets $25. All three players call.

Turn 10h

Checks to Hero again who bets $35. SB calls, Villain pretty quickly stacks chips and shoves for $188. Old man limper thinks for like 30 seconds and folds.

Hero???

Live tells - Player had is girlfriend right behind him. I'm pretty sure she saw every one of his hands when dealt and was paying attention to the game. Player continued to drink beer and watch baseball game on TV (drinking anything in a hand is usually a huge strong tell to me).
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Old 06-17-2016, 12:15 PM   #2
QuantumSurfer
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Re: Flopped bottom set 4 ways but do I have to fold turn?

What's with the minuscule turn sizing? OTT the pot is $140 excluding rake. Make it $90+, which makes stacking so much easier. As played, given the fact he stacked off TT pf I'd assume he overvalues his hands. No way I'm folding here.
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Old 06-17-2016, 12:21 PM   #3
Jamitontheriver
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Re: Flopped bottom set 4 ways but do I have to fold turn?

Never folding, but bigger turn sizing is essential to charge all the draws.
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Old 06-17-2016, 12:23 PM   #4
callmejc
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Re: Flopped bottom set 4 ways but do I have to fold turn?

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What's with the minuscule turn sizing? OTT the pot is $140 excluding rake. Make it $90+, which makes stacking so much easier. As played, given the fact he stacked off TT pf I'd assume he overvalues his hands. No way I'm folding here.
Yeah I really hate my turn sizing here. Was mainly focused on keeping top pair in the hand plus trying to overcharge the draws if they wanted to keep peeling. I vastly undersized the money in the pot and kinda went to usual turn bet sizing instead of counting out the pot again before my turn bet.
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Old 06-17-2016, 12:25 PM   #5
LifeRebooted
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Re: Flopped bottom set 4 ways but do I have to fold turn?

A lot of folks will say raise more preflop. I personally don't mind.

Bet more on the flop. The board is quite dynamic and hits limping/blind ranges pretty well. I don't think that you need to bet smaller for balance.

Bet more on the turn. The board just got even wetter and you are betting 35 into a pot of around 135. That's laying almost 5:1 on a call. Worse hands are willing to call a significantly larger bet. You are committed for effective stacks of 250 so what to do against better hands is not much of a concern.

As played, call villain's raise. As stated above, you are committed. Even ignoring the equity we gain from our full house outs, you can put together a reasonable range that you are ahead of. Remember you only need to win 1/3 of the time here.

The SB calling the turn bet is cause for some consternation but I don't think it changes anything.
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Old 06-17-2016, 12:43 PM   #6
spikeraw22
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Re: Flopped bottom set 4 ways but do I have to fold turn?

Preflop- fine. If go bigger but game dependent. If you expected to get called in 3 places it was a mistake.

Flop- much too small.

Turn- see above. When someone has a gurlfriend or other interested party watching who knows their cards it is unusual for them to make a move. They don't want to get embarrassed by doing something stupid. Whatever he has he thinks it's good. Now whether or not what he thinks is good beats bottom set I don't know.
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Old 06-17-2016, 12:46 PM   #7
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Re: Flopped bottom set 4 ways but do I have to fold turn?

You're getting almost 3:1.

I'm afraid it's a very trivial call.
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Old 06-17-2016, 12:49 PM   #8
callmejc
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Re: Flopped bottom set 4 ways but do I have to fold turn?

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Originally Posted by LifeRebooted View Post
As played, call villain's raise. As stated above, you are committed. Even ignoring the equity we gain from our full house outs, you can put together a reasonable range that you are ahead of. Remember you only need to win 1/3 of the time here.
I'm glad you brought up the full house outs. That was something I considered in my decision given that the straight got there. If he's on one of the two flush draws, I steal two of his outs. I have the six of hearts and there are cards he makes a flush with but give me a boat. However, since there are 2 other players in the hand, I was concerned that they have my full house outs in their hands.

I did a quick odds calc in my head during my decision like this.

25% flush and straight draw (I'm 80/20 ahead-ish) 25% two pair (85/15 ahead-ish) 25% straight (I'm 25/75 behind at best) 25% Better set (I have one out lol).

Maybe I'm giving Villian too much credit for premium made hands?
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Old 06-17-2016, 12:53 PM   #9
callmejc
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Re: Flopped bottom set 4 ways but do I have to fold turn?

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Preflop- fine. If go bigger but game dependent. If you expected to get called in 3 places it was a mistake.

Flop- much too small.
I get this from Jonathan Little's books, my open raise is 4x ($8) everytime. I raise an additional $2 for every limper.

I went for 1/2 pot of flop, are you thinking more like 3/4? I'm afraid that scares off marginal made hands.
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Old 06-17-2016, 01:05 PM   #10
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Re: Flopped bottom set 4 ways but do I have to fold turn?

Just because Jonathan little says it doesn't make it a good idea for your game.


Bet as much as they'll call. That's the definition of value betting. Plus it leaves you with a much easier decision later.
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Old 06-17-2016, 01:26 PM   #11
LifeRebooted
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Re: Flopped bottom set 4 ways but do I have to fold turn?

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Maybe I'm giving Villian too much credit for premium made hands?
Yes. Remember that there are more combinations of some hands than others. You can also draw some inferences from how he played the hand. But even your back-of-the-envelope math indicates a call given that we are getting just over 2.5:1.
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Old 06-17-2016, 02:54 PM   #12
jake
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Re: Flopped bottom set 4 ways but do I have to fold turn?

Pre sizing is probably fine... I'd like a little more like 2/3 on the flop. I want to make gut shots a little more expensive. But the real problem is OTT.

The turn card basically improved almost every valid draw... besides new FD's we've now got 2p's getting there... lots more combos etc.... And very few 'safe' river cards. Given we've likely still got the best hand and redraws to most hands that beat us... I'd really press hard here... almost a psb- with an auto call if raised.
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Old 06-17-2016, 03:07 PM   #13
Reubenr676
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Re: Flopped bottom set 4 ways but do I have to fold turn?

I like how you played this hand. I honestly think he could have top two pair like QT. I think you're good and I'd play this exactly the same way except I'd bet 1/2-2/3 on the Turn.
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Old 06-17-2016, 03:19 PM   #14
callmejc
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Re: Flopped bottom set 4 ways but do I have to fold turn?

Thanks for the feedback guys. If you guys couldn't tell I did make the tight fold after all.

Obviously the big mistake was the turn sizing. It's barely 1/4 pot on a super wet board where I still usually have the best hand. I almost invited the action that followed OTT and should have prepared for the possibility of a check raise.

If I bet something more like 1/2 or 2/3 pot OTT I can feel more comfortable about getting it in vs the villain who only had 188 behind.
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Old 06-17-2016, 05:11 PM   #15
Wayneomac
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Re: Flopped bottom set 4 ways but do I have to fold turn?

I'm scratching my head at this hand. The week turn bet makes it more likely that Villan is just trying to take this one away. Never folding here...
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Old 06-18-2016, 01:22 AM   #16
wj94
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Re: Flopped bottom set 4 ways but do I have to fold turn?

Flop is fine. Turn I would 3/4 pot it or pot it and get it in. Why would you fold? What do you think his range is?
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Old 06-18-2016, 11:38 AM   #17
HappyLuckBox
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Re: Flopped bottom set 4 ways but do I have to fold turn?

terrible fold...
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