1-3 $500 buy-in, did well at table that just broke, only at new table for an hour or so. I have never seen V before, 50's WG. Hero is 60's WG.
Hero ($860) raises to $12 from MP with 3c3h. HJ ($560) makes it $30 from the HJ. I call, as $18 is approx 1/30 of his stack and worth it to setmine.
Flop ($63) comes KcKs3s. I check, V bets $50, i call.
Turn: ($163) 2c. I check V checks.
Riv: Js. Which completes the flush. I bet $100, hero shoves $480.
1-3 $500 buy-in, did well at table that just broke, only at new table for an hour or so. I have never seen V before, 50's WG. Hero is 60's WG.
Hero ($860) raises to $12 from MP with 3c3h. HJ ($560) makes it $30 from the HJ. I call, as $18 is approx 1/30 of his stack and worth it to setmine.
Flop ($63) comes KcKs3s. I check, V bets $50, i call.
Turn: ($163) 2c. I check V checks.
Riv: Js. Which completes the flush. I bet $100, hero shoves $480.
My action?
Call. The only hands that beat you are JJ and KJ. He probably doesn’t raise with K-J. But JJ makes perfect sense. Pray he only has a flush or ace king. You should have bet huge on the turn. Probably should not called the raise OOP looking to set mine.
C/r the flop dude, V either has a K and won’t fold or doesn’t and won’t bet again unless his hand improves to better than Kx. What a dream scenario. River is pretty puke worthy because people don’t check turn with AK and usually won’t raise river with a flush on paired K board. Now he has to have like exactly AQss or be bluffing which seems very unlikely. If V doesn’t have KK JJ I’d be surprised.
Call. The only hands that beat you are JJ and KJ. He probably doesn’t raise with K-J. But JJ makes perfect sense. Pray he only has a flush or ace king. You should have bet huge on the turn. Probably should not called the raise OOP looking to set mine.
Actually I think I change my mind and say fold. Pretty sure he has JJ there.
I would fold river. I like C/Ring flop. I do think you have 3 streets of value here so I wouldn't check turn. I've lost a lot of money letting people catch up to my hand. They catch up too far! I try to make bets that force bad play now.
With KK on the board, he either has AK, and I will stack him or he won't put in significant money after the flop if I bet large. I should have found that out on the flop or turn rather than letting him hit a 2-outer on the river.
You need to play your boat more aggressively. In this sort of situation if villain doesn't have KX you won't make much money and if villain does he isn't folding quickly. If he is chasing the flush you want to charge him something. So there is little reason to play passively. Mostly you just end up giving low pairs a chance to make a better boat.
The flop check/call is OK given villain 3 bet preflop. But you need to take the initiative at some point. Lead flop, check/raise flop or lead turn, something before you get to river.
As played it's a judgement call on what villain can turn up with. How wide does he 3 bet preflop? Can he over play AK? Does he have flushes in his range and does he raise river with them? Against most opponents I slightly favor fold.
Initial preflop action is probably pretty table dependent.
It's true that we're getting about 30:1 to setmine plus we'll also be in an SPR 9ish pot where we can just donk big bets over 3 postflop streets to play for stacks (noting we'll need 3 bets to go in postflop in order for postflop to be profitable). But setmining isn't quite that simple, and more boils down to whether this guy is going to call off 3 bets for stacks postflop (even with an overpair noting he doesn't always end up with one) HU in position, plus we always have to allow room for the times we flop a set and lose (where we'll lose our stack, and no one ever properly figures in this devastating result into setmining). In general, ~setmining HU OOP needing 3 bets to go in postflop is likely not profitable.
And even our flop play shows how difficult it can be to get in stacks. We were very lucky that Villain bet the flop, but a huge amount of villains with big pairs simply check this flop back (fearing we have AK or whatever) and now we only get 2 bets in postflop (at best).
The turn illustrates this even more, as almost all villains with big pairs will check back the turn given our flop call. We really need to donk the turn given our flop play, imo. In general, getting only 2 streets of value when we flop our set simply isn't going to make preflop profitable.
And the river further illustrates what I touched on regarding the times we flop a set and lose (which this kinda looks like).
Folding as played seems ok. Most villains do not have many bluffs here, and can credibly take this line with larger boats. Agree that flip should be a xr.
Your hand is very strong, but it's nowhere near uncrackable. Almost every card besides another 3 hurts your hand.
V either has Kx and is not folding or has another pocket pair and is not putting any more money into the put unless he boats up. Raise flop, bet turn.
AP, I'd have to tank on the river and probably eventually call. With your line, I could see V putting you on Kx and value-shoving his flush. But it's definitely not close, and you're going to see JJ a decent amount of the time (which never would have gotten there if you raised flop and bet turn).
Your hand is very strong, but it's nowhere near uncrackable. Almost every card besides another 3 hurts your hand.
V either has Kx and is not folding or has another pocket pair and is not putting any more money into the put unless he boats up. Raise flop, bet turn.
AP, I'd have to tank on the river and probably eventually call. With your line, I could see V putting you on Kx and value-shoving his flush. But it's definitely not close, and you're going to see JJ a decent amount of the time (which never would have gotten there if you raised flop and bet turn).
V 3b pre, a flush is extremely unlikely unless he has exactly AQss
Sure, AQss is most likely but I've also seen the occasional fish 3b with AJss.
Also V might have had a 3-bet bluff like A3ss.
The Js is on the board. Very few people 3b A3s at 1/3, and the 3s is also on the board....so KK or JJ are way more likely because V can really only have AQss for a flush
The Js is on the board. Very few people 3b A3s at 1/3, and the 3s is also on the board....so KK or JJ are way more likely because V can really only have AQss for a flush
I didn't catch the J on the board, that does make this a bit harder and possibly a fold. I still think V has enough slow-played AK to make this hard though.
That being said, I certainly know players who 3-bet bluff with suited wheel aces.
Overall though, Hero got himself into a very tough spot by playing flop and turn terribly.
I think we got him. I'd be snap calling. He's putting you on Kx and I think he has the flush.
Never has KK and why would KJ be 3betting us pf? Only hand that realistically beats us is JJ.
Why shouldn’t KJ be 3betting? KJ can’t just call there and if hero has an active image than HJ is going to take it down plenty of times pre or on the flop with a c-bet.
He can bet any Axx Kxx Qxx or Jxx flop and hero will be forced to fold or end up playing multi street chicken OOP.
