Playing 2/5 yesterday. Relevant villain has a stack of about $1500 and he's been running good. $500 max buy-in. I haven't seen him get out of line although he does like to pay off value bets on the river. I've also seen him value bet the river very thin. He's loose and mostly passive although if he thinks it's the best hand, he isn't afraid to put money in the pot. I haven't seen him making any bluffs or semi-bluffs, although that doesn't mean he isn't capable of doing so. He's 70-ish and probably from eastern Europe by his accent.

I have about $700 in front of me. We are playing 6-max and the table is loose and splashy preflop with very little 3-betting. Most flops are seen by 3-5 players, and most pots are raised preflop.

OTTH. I raise to $20 UTG with A 3 I get 3 callers. It doesn't matter if I go $20, $25, or $30. I'm getting the exact same number of callers, guaranteed. The player on my right is a young guy who is a huge fish and I want him in every pot I play.

Flop: ($80) A 3 9

I bet $60. V calls, everyone else folds.

Turn: ($200) A 3 9 8

Here's the big decision point: I bet $125. V raises to $300. I have about $550 left in my stack.

My thinking: A9, A8, 89 are all in his range, as are all sets except AA. I don't think he raises a flush draw. He might make this play with 8 9. While he value bets thin, I have not ever seen him value bet thin with this sizing. He does not seem to be aware of the pot size and I don't think he sizes accordingly. I think he makes big bets with big hands and small bets with small hands regardless of the size of the pot.

88 seems unlikely. It's possible he is slow playing 99 or the very unlikely 33.

If I call and hit a club or a 3, I don't know that he'll pay off the rest of my stack. If the river is an A, he's not putting the rest of it in unless he makes a bigger full house.

Obviously not folding, but putting half my stack in and then not having a good plan for blank rivers seems bad. Shoving is probably only getting called by better. Most of the time I probably have 9 or 11 outs when called.

I ended up shoving, but I'm wondering if that was the right play. Should I have sized down on the turn? My thinking with a turn bet is that I wanted to get value from AK, AQ type hands.

I’d monkey shove because I expect a V to call with AK/AQ. If your V won’t call with 1pr then shoving isn’t great. There are no but flush draws with an ace which is bad. I think I flat the raise and then check/call most rivers (leading on clubs).

If you are reasonably sure villain's turn range is two pair+ then call. Villain has too many hands that beat you in his range.

The tricky part is the best line on the river depends on how villain is going to play if a club or heart hits. If villain is too loose then you want to play the clubs, if he is too tight then play clubs and hearts. If he is too aggressive then check river and let him bet sometimes, if passive then move yourself.

If you catch an A or 3 getting some live read on villain is what matters most. Did he like that or not? If he didn't then shove, otherwise check/evaluate.

Given that his sizing usually = big hand, and he might over value his hand if you bink river, call.

Can't fold and shoving has very little, if any, FE.

River - tank for a 15-20 seconds before acting. Check on a miss, AI if the 11-outer hits.

i don't think its terrible to shove, but it does seem like a bit of an overplay.

i think you could bet smaller OTT

you don't need to protect your hand too much bc you have the club draw as well now

targeting AK/AQ is an optimistic way to look at the turn bc these hands should be 3b pre at some frequency so i wouldn't really be targeting those hands OTT

i like 40% pot ott