1/2 NL Full Table, players at the table have stacks from 60-500.

I'm in late position with AKss, I raise to 15 over a couple limpers.
The BTN calls, as does a blind and a limper. 4 way to the flop

Players to the flop have stacks 300-400.

Flop $60 Kh 8s 3s

I'm thrilled to hit TPTK and the NFD. I am holding $40 in chips, preloaded from watching the calls go into the pot and figuring about what my cbet is going to be. I fiddle a few seconds, decide that $40 is the right amount, and awkwardly put the bet out. All 3 call.

I'm figuring the pot now has about $220, and I have about $245 left. Larger stacks in play are not large enough to make side pots relevant.

QUESTIONS:
What's the plan for the turn and/or river?

Am I correct that most of the time, we're going to get checked to and shove?

If so, what are the exceptions?


Thanks

You run better than Saquon.

Plan is to gii ott.

I think it depends on turn card. You have the board covered really well (other than small sets) so you don't necessarily have to shove the turn if you think opponents have draws as well. Given your SPR, you could even make the case to check behind on the turn because you can still GII on the river if someone bets into you.

Depending on turn card my plan would be 100 on the turn. Keep in Kx hands and smaller flush draws.

Sucks if someone has a set here, hit your flush so you don't have to worry about it.

Edit: 100 might be to cute but other than sets and a weird 2 pair you are dominating this board.

One hand... I figured that too, but thought there might be reasons not to do so.


One thought was that only a flopped set and turned full would call (fold out worse, only get called by better). Maybe a worse K calls thinking they have blockers and def has outs.

Along those lines, checking hoping to induce vs shoving while they think they have more outs (flush) than they do?


I did think about a smallish bet (see above).



Also thought hypothetically about any action that might induce a fold from me... SB/BB bets 100 and MP jams. or SB/BB shoves and MP calls.
Can I expect that neither would be full there?

On the turn the last thing you want to do is chase off any dominated draws that are 0% to win the pot.

I'd go $30 flop, $90 on a blank turn. You have board covered, so keep KX and lower FD in. Can easily get stack in on river.

Most EV play is to check most turns

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There is only one player behind if checked to.

Turn is a K. Checks to me.

Note: These quoted replies were prior to the K on the turn reveal.


Sure, it stinks. But i'm also thinking about how to extract at least some additional value. I'd like to get some value before V misses the draw.

I don't know exactly how I adjust my flop sizing, but had the $40 in hand for a 2/3 cbet (4 way). Maybe if I don't have the NFD I size it up, so perhaps I could size down here.

I guess I'm too concerned about the draws missing and folding rivers. Dominated hands (weaker Ks, and flush draws) may find an easier call on the river (bigger pot, smaller river shove).

I guess my big concern was that missed draws wouldn't pay anything on the river, and that I was unlikely go get more than 1 caller on the river. With a turn bet, I think more draws might come along (haven't missed yet).

If you are going to bet the turn, I suppose you are betting small to keep everyone in.



FISHY or not?

I raise preflop, cbet the flop and now check turn.
Repping pocket pairs lower than the K, that didn't hit a set?
Repping Ax?
Repping a monster (quads, FH AKss)?

It would be pretty criminal to check this turn considering there are hands with 0% equity that will call our bet as well as suited King type hands which are drawing to 2 outs. Not to mention this is live low stakes so players can call with all sorts of stupid one pair hands that are drawing very thin.

Bet something like 1/3 PSB.

Thanks for the thoughts.

I shoved. Just under $250 into a pot slightly smaller.

Folds around. Happy to take the pot, wondering who was going to call what sized bet. Instantly thinking I should have bet $100, shoved what was left on the river.

I think 80-100 on the turn, shove is just too much. As others have mentioned there are going to be players there drawing dead why do you want them to fold?
When you shove, people are going to put you on AK a lot of the time (that is what people always do). The flush draws are going to fold as bad odds to call and it is a huge bet.
Besides the flush draw the board is pretty dry, there isnt much out there.
What are you expecting to call on the turn I can see a few weak Kx even folding there.

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Betting flop is good. Betting most turns. Definitely betting the K turn. I don’t shove.

Whoops. I mean now you really have such a strong hand that shoving is a big mistake IMO I would have bet the amount that gives the worst draw correct odds to call. In this case, there is only a FD or someone with a worse King, so I think I bet $50-$60 and then that will leave you with a very comfortable stack size for a river shove.

The last thing you want ever is to "be happy to win the pot" in spots like these. These very high EV spots don't come very often, so you want size your bets for pure value with the least amount of fold equity. You played your hand much more like YOU had a draw and wanted everyone to fold.

Bigger on flop IMO. Like 50. Really exploit these 1/2 goombas.

Shoving turn. It's a bit of a big bet given our stack, but I can't imagine any non-8 dissuading me from ramming it home.

Edit: I see the turn was a K. We don't quite have a hammer lock on the hand, but there's 0 bad rivers for us. So I think a milking size to set up a smaller river shove is appropriate.

As I wasn't called, I'm going to assume I was ahead and nobody flopped a set (turning a full house).

I'm ahead with the most equity, and it seems the majority of the thoughts are to make some kind of non-shove bet.

Spade draws are drawing dead. Anything they put in is free money. Of course, I'm only expecting Qxss to put money in the pot. Board is paired and the A or K isn't going to fall. The right size turn bet might get a chasing call, and they can't fold if the river spade hits.

Worse Kings have 3 outs to win (kicker) and 6 outs to chop. I thought a big king would call. Maybe would have called smaller turn bet and crying call river without a spade.

I thought that I'd get at least 1 caller, and be well ahead. Perhaps if BTN called, I'd get 2 callers. Lower chance of winning the pot, but it's a much bigger pot and I make a lot more Sklansky bucks I think.

I'l have to take a bigger pause next time. I think a turn bet of $80-100 sets things up nicely. Possible that they all got a tiny piece of the flop and weren't going to continue unimproved?