Hero is a TAG young Asian guy who has been at the table for a while. Stack size: ~$1,200

Villain is a MAWG who is a new player and has played two hands in thirty minutes. He won both hands without showdown and seems pretty TAG as well. He is also familiar with other regs and seems like a reg himself. Covers hero.

OTTH:
Villain opens from UTG+1 to $20 and 2 players call. I'm in the SB with J9s. I consider squeezing here but decide not to because: villain should have a strong range from EP and the table is pretty loose (everyone called the last time I squeezed from the SB). I call and the BB folds.

Flop: J94ss, Pot (raked): $78

Bink. I hit top two and check to villain who bets $50, the others fold. The cbet into 3 people on a wet board is pretty strong so I put villain's range on AJ, AQs+, 99, 44, QQ+, maybe QT. I c/r to $150, he thinks for a while and call. I definitely think I could raise bigger here to deny pot odds if he has a draw. I am repping sets, two pairs and flush draws.

Turn: 8h, Pot: $378

This card completes a straight for QT but I don't see villain having many QT in his EP opening range. I bet $300 to continue my story and he thinks again for a bit and calls.

River: Ac, Pot: $978

At this point, I have $730 left and think about shoving but I believe villain could easily have AJ here so I decide to check and see what he does. He goes all in. Is there any chance he's overvaluing AKss here? His all in folds out any bluffs I could have had, and I by checking the river my hand could look like KJ or QJ. I'm also pot committed with a SPR of <1 as well. Hero ???

How much money do you think you'll make with J9s oop vs an UTG raise who is seemingly not brain dead?

Hero calls.

Can't fold despite it being a bad river card.


The argument is whether we jam river or check to induce worse. Vs unknowns probably got to jam.

I think this is a fold. He doesn't have many missed flush draws here that bluff the river because he should be checking back an A alot. Don't think he's shoving for value with worse.
Your hand does not look like QJ or KJ. It looks like what you have or a missed nut flush draw that wants a cheap show down with your A. I don't think a good V had alot of bluffs and your range looks like a rivered top pair at worst.

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Ive put myself in enough bad spots like this, that Ive come to realize that as a general rule, I hate check raising the flop this deep almost always.

I think a check raise here is a must. There is alot of value to be had and alot of bad turns if we let everyone get there cheaply. It's pretty hard for us to be behind on this flop and we want to play a big pot. I think we should be checking raising, barrelling turn, and check calling any non-A river.

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Not sure I'd consider this a bad spot, just a bad river from which to get value or lose the pot sometimes. Flop and raise are hugely +EV w a SB range.
There are also many rivers where our range will have a prescribed shove.

Flop a little more, excellent turn card to bomb, river I think we can get away with a downbet so he levels down and bluff catches (heros) missed spades more often with QQ/KK/ATss/etc

AP call and make him show you AA as that his only value hand that should shove. You can't check river if you're not gonna snap.

Meh, maybe so...but I swear every time I do it, I get into a spot like this where Im in jeopardy of folding the best hand in a very big pot.