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Flop top 2, Is call flop to fold turn a leak? Flop top 2, Is call flop to fold turn a leak?

08-17-2015 , 11:56 AM
I'm at a 1/2 2 am on a tuesday. A very dead night for my local casino, we just combined the last two tables to one. The game is playing very passive pre-flop, with players just looking to see a flop.

Villain (500): Joined the table when his broke about 45 mins ago. Has not played many hands. We have been talking a bit, and I get the sense he's better than me. Certainly has a bunch more hours under his belt.
We had a hand together at this point: V (SB) H (Button). I limp in with (44), he raises and I am the sole caller. I flop a set, V c-bets and I call. Turn V checks, I bet, he says "You have a set" and folds.

Hero (900): I've made my money by being the aggressor pre flop, value betting when I believe I'm ahead, getting folds with C-bets, and quitting on hands when I've got nothing and a c-bet failed. I have no massive hands on record, but did suck out in a weird 4-bet pot. My KK hit the turn. It's quite possible V and his bud sitting next to him see me as a target after the KK hand, and with my stack as is.

OTTH:

Villain (SB)
Hero (Button): QJs

UTG +1 raises to 10 everyone calls. I'm not really in the mood to three bet here, figuring its going multiway at this time of night so I just call hoping to smash the flop.

Villain calls.

Flop (80): QJ3

V leads with 60. Hero calls.

Turn (200): 8

V leads with 100. Hero folds.

In my mind, he's got the 33. I know thats me being fearful of one single possible hand, but I don't see anything he can have that will lead into 7 other players.
So is calling the flop, just to fold the turn a leak? Would anyone fold immediately post flop?
As I write this now, I realize the turn bet sizing wasn't massive, but at the time, it felt large given the hand and his position.
Flop top 2, Is call flop to fold turn a leak? Quote
08-17-2015 , 12:03 PM
I think it's a leak. Why didn't you raise flop? He could have lead with more than a set. If I'm calling flop, I'm calling turn and evaluating river. The only thing I don't like about turn is that one of the draws got there. He could have bet flop with 9T -- possibly even 9Ts.
Flop top 2, Is call flop to fold turn a leak? Quote
08-17-2015 , 12:36 PM
If you aren't going to raise the flop, I would have a very hard time folding the turn.

33 is in his range. So is 10s9s. But so is Ks10s, AQo, and As3s. With all of the preflop callers, he may even have decided "pot odds" and called with Q3 or J3.

The difficulty with just calling the flop is that your hand is underrepped AND looks a lot like a draw. So he should be betting all of his value hands here, and semibluffing with some of his draw hands. You're way behind 10s9s and 33, but that's only 4 combos total (I'm assuming he's not donking the flop into 7 players with any other 109 combo). You're ahead of the rest of his range.

I'd call turn and plan on calling a big bet on any blank river, to maximize our winnings from his 3-barrel bluffs. If a spade comes on the river and he bets large, I'm likely to find a fold.
Flop top 2, Is call flop to fold turn a leak? Quote
08-17-2015 , 12:51 PM
Were you going to call other turn cards that were non-spades or straight cards (which is like almost all of them)? If not then fold flop, and folding flop would be pretty bad.

I'd call turn and go to river.
Flop top 2, Is call flop to fold turn a leak? Quote
08-17-2015 , 12:57 PM
If you're going to hit top 2 and fold, don't call preflop, you'll flop 2 pair and worse almost every time.

Raise the flop. If you don't raise the flop, you got an awesome turn card, because flatting the flop makes it look like you have a draw and you got him to fire a $100 barrel.
Flop top 2, Is call flop to fold turn a leak? Quote
08-17-2015 , 01:12 PM
So...you slowplayed the flop. Now put in a nice raise on the turn. If you get 3bet you can cheerfully fold.

This looks more like a TPish hand to me than a set.

Very few players at $1/2, including all but a few posters in this forum, know how to exploit our bet/folding, nittish tendencies.

You are levelling yourself Bud--Bigtime.
Flop top 2, Is call flop to fold turn a leak? Quote
08-17-2015 , 01:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eldiesel
If you're going to hit top 2 and fold, don't call preflop, you'll flop 2 pair and worse almost every time.

Raise the flop. If you don't raise the flop, you got an awesome turn card, because flatting the flop makes it look like you have a draw and you got him to fire a $100 barrel.
I agree, but what i really want to know is what was your thought process as you only flatted the flop? i mean, you called so you must have thought you had some equity in the hand. you said you placed him on 33. i cant really see how the turn 8 solidified that. If you raise flop then get 3!, pretty standard fold. AP, you only called then when a pretty safe turn comes you fold? OTF, what was your plan when calling?
Flop top 2, Is call flop to fold turn a leak? Quote
08-17-2015 , 01:44 PM
Wow... your posts make me realize how much I have to learn lol. The thought always going through my head is "What would call that's worse!" So I rarely raise unless I'm sitting with a set, straight, flush, combo draw, or bluffing.

Would someone call with worse than me here, in a pot that went 7 ways? He couldn't think top pair would be good here right? Also considering he donked into 7 players.
To answer some questions, I called the flop because I had top two, and to see what he does on the turn. Since I can't imagine leading into 7 players with less than 2 pair or a serious combo, I couldn't see him doing it either.

Tell me I'm way off, and maybe I can start winning even more!
Flop top 2, Is call flop to fold turn a leak? Quote
08-17-2015 , 01:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dopedupwalrus
Would someone call with worse than me here, in a pot that went 7 ways?
...
Since I can't imagine leading into 7 players with less than 2 pair or a serious combo, I couldn't see him doing it either.
Just answered your own question. He's leading with either a strong top pair or a combo draw. The combo draws are "worse," in the sense that they're not made hands yet, but they're going to call because of their equity.

And, by the same reasoning, when he has a made hand, he's likely to look at that board and consider the possibility that you're raising with a combo draw. If he has AQ, he really isn't going to want to fold to a flop raise (even though he probably should).
Flop top 2, Is call flop to fold turn a leak? Quote
08-17-2015 , 04:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kookiemonster
So...you slowplayed the flop. Now put in a nice raise on the turn. If you get 3bet you can cheerfully fold.

This looks more like a TPish hand to me than a set.

Very few players at $1/2, including all but a few posters in this forum, know how to exploit our bet/folding, nittish tendencies.

You are levelling yourself Bud--Bigtime.
What is your raise size? I think I tend to under-raise. A solid raise in my opinion would be to 300, which results in him making a 1/2 pot call. I figure however, there aren't many hands that make that call... Maybe I need to push players harder.
Flop top 2, Is call flop to fold turn a leak? Quote
08-17-2015 , 04:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AcePaint
I agree, but what i really want to know is what was your thought process as you only flatted the flop? i mean, you called so you must have thought you had some equity in the hand. you said you placed him on 33. i cant really see how the turn 8 solidified that. If you raise flop then get 3!, pretty standard fold. AP, you only called then when a pretty safe turn comes you fold? OTF, what was your plan when calling?
First, I was surprised to see the SB lead, so I wanted to know what he'd do on the turn. Based upon the comments here, I gave a 2nd barrel from the SB way too much credit. However, he bet exactly the way I would if I had a set. As I stated in the previous post, my bet/raise sizing may not be aggressive enough. I am continually reading posts on here that suggest larger bet sizes than I typically make.
Flop top 2, Is call flop to fold turn a leak? Quote
08-19-2015 , 12:14 PM
I've been thinking about this more, a lot more. Flopping top two pair obviously is smashing the flop, and the board was wet, so his aggression could be many things. He was the best player at the table, leading into 7. I've only played 200 hours of this game (While in the know), and my post flop game admittedly needs work. I saw this move as serious power. Do you guys go broke here with top two? I don't often raise on the flop when its heads up, I will do that on the turn. So a turn raise leads to a river all in situation. If he river shoves, do we call? (No matter the card. He could have flatted my turn raise with a set, or could hit his hand on the river (If a scare card comes).

If he checks the river, I'm inclined to check behind (Is that a terrible move?)

Also, If I raise the flop: If he reraises, thats a fold in my book.
But is a turn donk on his part just as bad for me?

Finally: I turn raise with sets, is two pair a better hand for a flop raise rather than turn? (Speaking about HU situations)
Flop top 2, Is call flop to fold turn a leak? Quote

      
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