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Old 12-30-2013, 08:07 PM   #1
Join Date: Dec 2012
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Flop straight...river decision


Table very fit/fold. Lots of value in cbets

Hero: ($700)fairly active, playing tag/lag (villain is on my direct right and has opened alot of pots slowing me down a bit).*****y showing winners and running well

Villain : (370$) playing tagish...opened alot of pots and cbets 100%...rarely limps...plays pretty solid...haven't been in many pots with him at this point.

3 limps to hero on CO who opens to 12 with 7c8c. Blinds are nits and expect a least 1 limper to fold. Button is waiting to fold.

Villain calls

9h-5c-6h ($22)
V checks
Hero bets 15$
Villain calls

Turn : Ks

V checks
H bets $40
V calls

River 2h ($130)

V leads $75

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Old 12-30-2013, 08:18 PM   #2
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Re: Flop straight...river decision

Crying call. This is a fish-with-a-flush most of the time, but if V is generally solid, he could be repping it.
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Old 12-30-2013, 09:02 PM   #3
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Re: Flop straight...river decision

With better read on villain this could be an easy call or easy fold, with just a bit of a read that they seem competent that bet is small enough that I'm not giving up the straight. The chance of a bluff, plus the occasional smaller straight, chop or badly played set/two pair is enough to make it close to 0EV.
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Old 12-30-2013, 09:21 PM   #4
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I really do like larger flop bets when we flop the nuts that are hidden. As we get more in the pot when we have an interested villain. $22 pot, I like $20-25 better than the $15, also sets up stacks by the river better.

As played to turn, $40 into $52 feels right here.

Not great river card, but I gotta think we can put villain, as described, on a range of hands wide enough to include enough non-flush hands tat we have to call here.

Now tell us he showed you 99 for top set (otf) and your hand was good.
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Old 12-30-2013, 09:23 PM   #5
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Ya my read on villain at this point of night was very poor. I was kinda in auto-pilot for awhile. Never really saw him showdown much. Just that he open alot making me fold alot of hands I would have opened with.

I couldn't see him leading with a bluff on river. He didn't seem aggro enough post-flop to do that.
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Old 12-30-2013, 09:51 PM   #6
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Very villain dependent. Is there any indication that he will chase his draws getting bad odds? I can't see him playing two pair like this, would expect a raise at some point to protect his hand. I think I call but this a flush a majority of the time. I would also agree with previous posters on larger flop sizing.

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Old 12-30-2013, 09:51 PM   #7
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Well I hero folded. Just couldn't see him bluffing in this spot. He had told me he thought I was solid player and there where some major fish on table.

I tank for a minute or so, and felt he was value betting. I don't think he has any sets in his range as he would raise turn or flop. I discount 2 pair as I doubt he rivered his second pair. So I thought he was weighted heavily to made flushes.

Normal I never would show if I fold a big hand. However I quickly showed to entice him to show his cards. It didn't work and he mucked his cards gingerly.

Reading body language I think I was ahead. 10 min later he said he flopped a set. (I still don't think he had a set)
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Old 12-31-2013, 01:05 AM   #8
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Re: Flop straight...river decision

He can also have 34 here.
Which is a pretty decent part of his range I think.
Sets should be a smaller part, but possible.
And of course flush draws.

I think I would have called.
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Old 12-31-2013, 03:14 AM   #9
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Re: Flop straight...river decision

You're deep, and you need to get more chips into the pot on the flop and the turn.

Flop $20. Then turn $60. Maybe even more. Build a pot. With my sizing here, the river pot will be > $180. With your sizing its only ~$130. See what a big difference that makes?

I'd call on the river. It's a little better than a crying call getting 3:1. I expect to lose a lot but not more than 25% of the time.

The biggest adjustment you should make, however, has nothing to do with the outcome of the hand, it has to do with bet sizing and how you're not maximizing cEV.
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Old 12-31-2013, 03:22 AM   #10
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Re: Flop straight...river decision

Call. (You beat a lot more then you loose too, although that one hand that you loose to is the most important one). Folding is not that big of a mistake either imho. (based on your reads)
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