Game is a $1/2 NL Bellagio Las Vegas

Hero: mid40's has shown down with one or two strong hands

V: Young player; new to the table; seems solid, no other info

Hero ($195) looks down at 2 red Queens in EP and raises to $12

MP ($95) calls

Villain ($250) in CO rearises to $30

I call and MP calls

Flop is: Jd10d5d
Hero??

Considering a shove for remaining $165 hoping to deny equity to draws or hit my diamond as a backup. I put MP on 88+ and Villain on AK, JJ+

Thoughts

I think you could 4 bet pre flop here to make flop decision a bit easier,
As played , your not going anywhere with over pair , flush draw, and back door straight draw, jamming isn't bad , but maybe betting 75 ish on flop would charge draws a bad price to chase, when you jam you could push away some hands that you are way ahead of I think

don't post results in the future, it reduces the quality of people's analysis.

Jamming flop is fine, but i'd probably prefer b/c 2/3 pot or so. sometimes MP will have second thoughts about committing if we just put our stack in and the PFR is still yet to act.

Full PSB bet on flop. Getting called or getting folds are bad. At less than 100bb's I'm working to get the chips in the middle. Lots of worse hands can call, lots of hands w/ solid equity can fold.

Seems like checking to encourage worse hands to bet is much better than shoving.

We might fold out ax,kd but villain will fold most hands we crush that are likely to cbet. And I don't think this flop checks through often 3way.

Wouldn’t folding out AKxd be an OK outcome? They’re getting about the rights odds to call a shove so folding their equity can’t be a bad thing?

AxK is folding basically never.

I would probably jam preflop since we're three handed. If it was guaranteed to be heads up I can get behind a flat call.

As played pre, I'd probably just check/call down and hope to get to showdown and win or hit our flush and win.

That was my example of the 1 hand we want to shove against because villain may fold incorrectly. If villain is not going to make many mistakes vs a shove we might as well check and increase the odds of them doing something wrong.

There might even be a case for xfing when both players commit, but I won't try to make it

+1

4bet preflop.

As played I too prefer to check this flop to the 3bettor.

isn't this the classic 4 bet squeeze play?
although with 95 bucks behind at the Bellagio that may be a smoke call with the short stack.
in any event I'm protecting the ladies 4bet instantly for me

When did they start offering $1/2 at Bellagio?

I think this. With <100BB, I'm looking to stack off here, unless I have strong reads they only do this with KK+

What are people ranging villain like pf

4bet allin pre is ok, hard to get called by worse, but there is quite a bit of money in allready and we can deny some equity. Calling is fine too.

AP, openshoving this flop is pretty bad. Villain is calling all pairs TT+, none of which we are beating, and we are at best flipping with the A.

Imo, check, let MP put his short stack in or let CO cbet and go from there. Mostly calling, i guess.

Yeah you absolutely need to 4b pre. That makes all of these decisions easier.

Where are people getting that this is 3-handed? Just wondering.

AP i check. They have simple decisions to just call off or fold when you jam and make less mistakes.

I don't think preflop is a fistpump must 4bet with QQ from early position. AP no option but to check/evaluate. I hate lead jamming as mentioned he's just folding worse hands and calling better.

W/R/T preflop: Any read on this player. Is he just clueless or does he have 3 bet sizing tells? I think at our stack we can default to just making it 85 and ramming home any decent flop. If he sizes this small because "I have AA/KK don't wanna lose customers" a lot, then calling could be better.

don't see 2.5x 3bets with AK very often. unless you have reads otherwise, i think there is a pretty clear sizing tell pre. if we 4bet he only continue with hands that beat us IMO.

Thanks for the feedback.

I think jamming the flop in retrospect is not ideal as we only get worse to fold. All 10’s, JJ’s, KK’s, AA’s and AKd combo’s will call which is a large part of our opponents’ range and we are for the most part crushed by.

However, I do not think there is any escaping a bet from either opponent. The best-case scenario would be to see is a check thru to get to a cheap showdown.

Not sure if the result was posted but:

The turn was a brick and the river was a Ks.

MP had JJ for a flopped set and Co had KcKd flopping a set of Kings on the river to scoop the pot. (my diamond would not have bailed me out)


I think we are destined to lose our stack here any which-way – which is fine as there are always situations where you are going to get setup and you should lose your stack … so I think the consensus is that there is no way out here!

.... ($1/3 NL Bellagio)

So is your defence here flat only?

If you have 4bet and flat defence what do the two ranges look like in this spot?

ya against an unknown player with that stack size and that 3bet size specifically, i'm flatting QQ, 4betting KK+ only. i'd fold AK. 4betting or flatting AK against his range does us no good. i'm only calling QQ because the price is so good and we can set mine against a range that will likely continue and/or stack off post. (we have no such benefit with AK.) additionally there's another player who will likely get involved behind us to boost the value of that.

i know this sounds super nitty but if the villain, 3bet size, or stacks were different everything would change.

it's also highly exploitable, but i'm not going to do this consistently once reads develop with this player.

ultimately it comes down to how likely you think JJ and AK are in his 3bet range here. my experience at 1/2 shows a strong correlation between 3bet sizing and holdings for average players, i would very heavily discount those holdings in his range. and then we block Qs. do the math.

Ya, no, we can't set mine once he raises to 30. We need to be $255 effective to set mine with a pocket pair for direct odds.

Even if we have to put the extra $18 into it, we're not getting 15:1 to set mine for implied.

Not only that, but set mining with QQ is gg-level nittery, since we're just ranging him on KK+ and in that case, we should be just lol-folding pre for $18

that's not right. for direct odds we need 7.5:1 for set mining. the 15:1 rule accounts for the difficulty of getting paid off against normal opening ranges. this is a different scenario, since, like i mentioned, we expect to get paid a lot if we hit a Q. additionally, we have a good chance of a 3rd player coming along for only $18 more.

i accept the comment that it's nittery but that's just how i range him.