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Flop set and fold? Flop set and fold?

03-01-2019 , 05:44 PM
Table opened up about 30 minutes into this hand.

Button on 8 seat. UTG raises to 15. I call with 88. Two more callers. If it matters both blinds fold. Flop 8910 rainbow. UTG guy bets 17. I call and next guy raises to 40, next guy who's played about every hand calls. UTG guy reraises all in for about 275. The guy after me has about 200 and the next guy has about 500. I'm at about 290.

Whata my play?
Flop set and fold? Quote
03-01-2019 , 05:55 PM
What are the stakes?

I doubt I can fold here, but if I'm ever going to fold a set, this might be the time.
Flop set and fold? Quote
03-01-2019 , 06:18 PM
Behind 99, TT, QJ, 67, that's a lot of value combos. I don't see many bluffs. I can get behind a fold here, as much as it sucks.
Flop set and fold? Quote
03-01-2019 , 07:25 PM
Sorry it is 1/3 at the Aria if it matters
Flop set and fold? Quote
03-01-2019 , 07:47 PM
I'm usually in "don't fold sets" camp, but as much as it pains me I can get on board with a fold here. Flop 3! jam into two opponents is a pretty frickin strong line, and realistically I think there's more combos you're behind than there are combos you're ahead of.
Flop set and fold? Quote
03-01-2019 , 07:51 PM
IM ALL IN
Flop set and fold? Quote
03-01-2019 , 08:03 PM
Branch, the guy that James has 3 people to act after him.
Flop set and fold? Quote
03-01-2019 , 08:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by branch0095
I'm usually in "don't fold sets" camp, but as much as it pains me I can get on board with a fold here. Flop 3! jam into two opponents is a pretty frickin strong line, and realistically I think there's more combos you're behind than there are combos you're ahead of.


Well ur pretty much getting odds to boat mine anyways
Flop set and fold? Quote
03-01-2019 , 08:36 PM
Preflop
Pretty nice spot to setmine, even though the raise was big. UTG seem strong so when you hit you should be able to make money from him. And it looks like you've got some people behind who could call which gives you more sources of implied odds.

Flop
UTG can have lots of overpairs, so I might be more worried about the other raiser. What is that guy raising with on this board? I think something like JT would prefer to call, they shouldn't have too many QQ-AA. Two pair hands might even prefer to call as well.

Here is your equity against various ranges:
- V1 and V2 both have overpairs+, and OESD 50% of the time: 43%
- V1 and V2 have overpairs and better: 30%
- V1 and V2 have two pair and better: 12%

With that, I'd estimate that you have maybe 20-30% equity, because I have a hard time believing that either of them have any bluffs in this spot, and because I think some of the weaker overpairs and two pairs are going to look to take a more passive line. I'm not sure if that justifies a call with the pot odds, but it seems close.
Flop set and fold? Quote
03-01-2019 , 08:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hyperknit
Well ur pretty much getting odds to boat mine anyways
What about quad-mining?
Flop set and fold? Quote
03-01-2019 , 08:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hyperknit
Well ur pretty much getting odds to boat mine anyways
Really? If anyone else has a set I'm in huge trouble.
Flop set and fold? Quote
03-01-2019 , 09:00 PM
So in hindsight the table was probably going for an hour. So I was starting to get a feel for the players.

So when it gets to me I probably took 2 minutes to make my decision. UTG guy could have at worst J10. That would be a stretch right? I didn't think he had that with the UTG pre flop raise. The guy after me seemed a little tight. The last guy was in many pots and some went to showdown and some he showed when his opponent folded and in those cases always had something strong. I also thought the way he was running might have something to do with the call of 40.

UTG has JJ
I folded after some thought.
Next guy has 810 and he called the all in.
Next guy has 710 and he called the all in.

Turn Q so UTG hits his straight and the river did not pair the board.
Flop set and fold? Quote
03-01-2019 , 09:03 PM
If I'm 810 guy I fold or push I think.
If I'm 107 guy I fold to the 40.
I was a little surprised UTG guy shoves there.

I think generally speaking I'm a little too tight to post flop bets raises. I certainly need work there.
Flop set and fold? Quote
03-02-2019 , 03:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rnr_Rnr_Hobgoblin
Really? If anyone else has a set I'm in huge trouble.


There’s only 3 of each set combo and there’s 16 of each offsuit straight combo which might be as many as 32 straight combos, also there quite a few pair+straight draw combos and possible top 2 pair
Flop set and fold? Quote
03-02-2019 , 06:58 AM
Utg line looks quite strange but still think folding is fine.
Flop set and fold? Quote

      
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