Hero (HJ): Mid 20's kid, has been on a heater over the last hour and gone from 1k to 1.5k without showing down much, has been playing with the villain for last 2 hours or so, but hasn't had any confrontations with him. No prior history with villain.

Villain (Button): Late 30's high stakes reg, playing TAGish, had conversation with dealer about finishing 5th in a WSOP main event so I assume he's competent. Covers hero.

Playing 6 handed. UTG limps, Hero limps with 56, Villain raises to 20 on the button, blinds call, UTG calls, Hero calls. I would usually raise in this spot, but decided to mix it up and over limp instead. Obvious call after everyone else calls button's raise.

Flop (100): QJ6

Checked to the dealer who c-bets 60. Folds to hero.

That's a scary board to c-bet into 4 people, so I know the villain likely has something. AA-JJ, AcXc, AQ-QT. I don't like calling out of position against a competent player, so the plan is to CR and barrel off future streets, or get it in on the flop if villain 4 bets.

Hero makes it 215. Villain thinks for a little while and calls.

Turn (530): QJ67

Hero bets 450. Villain thinks and makes an uncomfortable call.

The 7 doesn't change much, so I continue with the plan to barrel off. Villain was clearly agitated making the call. I think he even said something like "what is this guy doing."

River (1430): QJ67K

Hero thinks for a few seconds and ships for 895. The K isn't the best card on the river, as KK and KQ just got there, but I figure that's only a small part of his range, so it's still ok to go ahead and ship it. This also prevents AX from buffing, which I assume the villain is capable of doing.

Results:

When you bricked the turn, you should have realized that you aren't winning this hand at showdown very often. It also sounds like you've decided that you have no problem bluffing for stacks. Given that, I would go for a crai on the turn or simply open shove it.

I think your bet size on the turn is too large for a few reasons.
First of all it's a huge bet, which you should only be doing if you're going for value, even then it's a bit big.
Second it leaves villain with pretty good odds to call your bluff on the river.
If you would bet like 350 on the turn, the pot on the river is 1230 (-200) and your river bet is 995 (+100). Doesn't seem like much but it's something.
Having to call 995 into a 1230 pot is a bit harder than having to call 895 into a 1430 pot.

This is a very risky play that should only be made if you know villain can fold. Not sure why you're even trying this against an obviously good player? Aren't there plenty of fish to target instead?

Yes, the turn sizing is something I thought about after the hand. I think 350-400 would have been better for the reason you stated.

I think you already answered this question. I think this is the perfect player to take this line against. A competent amateur who's capable of making "good folds". Just didn't think he was capable of soul reading me and making a good call. He obviously understands the difference between relative and absolute hand strength.

Sure, but I want to take all +EV spots, even if they're high variance. FWIW the room was closing in an hour and all of the big fish had busted already.

CR the turn makes me super polarized and open shoving 1345 into 530 is just bad.

I happen to like the way you played this. The only issue I have that doesn't really relate to the hand is playing big pots with the competent players at the table. I generally try not to do this.

So what?

No it isn't

What I think is BAD is taking $1500 swings trying "out-think" a competent player, out of position. As played, you didn't really have a lot of other ways to win the hand. YOu need all the fold equity and outs that you can get.

Also, one think that's missing in this thread is the physical-tell factor. There is NO WAY this guy made this call just on hand ranges and math. Maybe get some sunglasses.

So, it's a lot easier to make a light call than calling a turn and river barrel, IMO.

I just think it's really transparent, as I would never play a value hand like that. Doing the calculations against a calling range of AA-JJ, AQ-QT, I need a fold ~43% of the time for it to break even. I don't think I'd get that.

Meh, maybe you're right but I think I have more fold equity barreling than making a transparent overshove.

I've played live poker exclusively for 3 years now, and I'm very cognizant of physical tells. Obviously you can never be sure of what your putting out, but people don't make light calls against me very often (this is the lightest call anyone's ever made against me).

He outleveled me and figured it out, but I also ran bad as I think he folds the river at least 50% of the time. People don't tank for 10 minutes if they have a physical tell.

The problem with 'standard' triple barrels after a c/r like this are that they

a) commit you to the line
b) are (usually) polarized to monster and hands and combo draws.

In order to avoid this, I usually will donk on a hand like this. Sometimes i'm doubling, sometimes i'm tripling, very player/table dependent. I'll balance this vs. good players by donking my monsters too. I've pretty much eliminated c/r from my game vs. good players.

I think the line is fine, but in my experience after a c/r, your fold equity on the river isn't as high as you think. If the fold is going to happen, your highest FE is on the turn.

Don't post results also, it skews a lot of responses.

IMO the key to understanding your line begins with your preflop action - we don't know your preflop strategy but we can assume that you would raise stronger hands pre (i.e. QQ/JJ/QJs, most of the time 66) and limp your weaker hands that like to see a flop (maybe QJo/sometimes 66/all the other suited connectors). Since that will reduce the number of value hands that are likely to x/r the flop compared to the possible combo draws you can have, and depending if villain thinks that you shove the river with QJ, it makes a call more understandable.

I think Sunchips makes some good points too.

Let's try this hand from villains point of view:

- Hero limps pre from UTG+1 (that's a drawing hand like 90% of the time? and not a very good one either, low pairs & low suited connectors)
- Hero calls our raise, which basically confirms the above, maybe removing some of the worse hands from his range

- Hero check/raised us on the flop. Not entirely sure what to make of this?
A check/raise usually means a very strong hand,
or it could be a bet to stop us (villain) from taking another stab at the pot,
or hero could be on a drawing hand and is semi-bluffing,
or it could be a pure bluff but that's not very likely.
Maybe hero is just trying to set up a bluff on a later street but I'm (villain) not sure if hero is good enough for that.

- Hero bets nearly pot sized, he must have a good hand here, but what? (from most to least likely imo)
- xxc is a real possibility here, would make complete sense
- T9 is a real possiblity here, would make sense
- 76 is possible, check/raise on the flop might even make sense if hero is protecting his hand
- QJ is possible, but would hero play this from UTG+1 without raising?
- 66 is possible, but would hero really check/raise us with a hand that strong?
- 77 is possible, but would hero really check/raise us on the flop with almost nothing?
- QQ & JJ are possible but extremely unlikely, hero would have raised preflop
- Q6, Q7, J6, J7 are really unlikely, hero wouldn't play these hands

I think if villain is actually good enough to come to this conclusion, he'll be calling your bluff most of the time, since there just aren't that many other hands that really make sense and he's getting good odds.

I also think villain makes the decision to commit to this pot on the turn, so after he calls the turn it's really unlikely he'll be folding the river.

ding ding ding.

What are you really repping with this line?

Be honest, would you value shove QJo on this river? what about 67?

Seems to me like your smart villain systematically went through all of the potential value hands that were out there and was able to eliminate most of them from your range based mostly on your pre-flop, and river actions.

QQ, JJ - nope based on preflop
66 - possible
77 - nope based on flop check/raise
67 - possible, but doubtful that you bet the river with this hand, as you wouldn't expect him to call with worse or fold better
Q6, J6 - Nope based on preflop limp
QJ - possible, though unlikely due to preflop limp, and for the same reasons as 67.
ATo - possible, but unlikely unless you got really frisky on the flop and turn
AcTc - Nope based on preflop limp.
QK, KJ - unlikely based on preflop limp.

That's kind of how it works. If you're semibluffing you either get there or you don't.



Hero,

I think it worked out fine. I think at this point you chalk it up to villain making a fine play and a mental note to avoid him in the future.

dubey,

you should probably not think to yourself that certain hands are impossible due to how it's played preflop. are they less likely? sure. are they impossible? no. And you also left out 9T and the possibility of hero putting a move on the flop with two diamonds and getting lucky.


anyway, let's find some hands that villain beats. They basically amount to 6xcc or axcc or stone bluffs the whole way.

impossible? perhaps not. Unlikely to the point of I'm not even going to consider them a reasonable part of my villain's range? absolutely.



There are also lots of club combos in Hero's range that aren't AcXc and 6cXc.

We also don't know if there is any history between villain and Hero. If hero has checked strong, but not nutted hands on the river in the past, that can further polarize his range.


I'm not saying V made a good call, I'm just saying that Hero reps very very few hands with this line.

Also, removing hands from V's range based on his previously observed tendencies plus actions taken in the hand is literally the basis of hand reading. If you were villain, would you consider QQ or JJ to be a part of Hero's range here?

Having limp/called pre-flop in the manner you did the V will likely eliminate AA, KK, QQ, JJ, QJ, 66, AcKc, Ac10c, AQ, KQ from your range. IMO the only hands left in your range that have him beat on the river are 9c10c (a hand that you also would likely raise with pre-flop) or KcXc. Even though I'm sure the V wasn't thrilled about calling such a large bet OTR I don't think he could fold given your perceived hand range.

I think this play would likely work against your average player/fish but not against a player of the caliber you described.

well played