so hero is a 23 year old im wearing dress clothes. 200 SB

v1- is a lates 20s spanish guy , no reads he is in BB with 80$ stacks

v2- no reads as well he is a younger guy im guessing a reg cause the dealers knew him and he plays 2-5 supposibly , he might be a bit of a gambler (just assuming) his discussions at the table were about hookers strip clubs and drugs. 100$, UTG

V2 straddles and it folds to me in SB with KJ i raise to 15 BB snaps and so does the straddle.

Flop Q103 pot-38(after rake)

im first, i ship all in.

so against a range of top pair i have about 37% equity can someone work me through the math on this.??

Why are we open shipping here? Bluffing 86 to win 38 isn't exactly my idea of a fun time.

There is no range, man. You open shoved, who knows if you're up against top pair or not, they could have pretty much anything. But if you're just looking for a hand calculator you can find that pretty easily. Open shoving looks pretty bad here, you have enough money behind to try to hit your draw, maybe even get a free turn. Moving in here completely wastes that. Also the preflop raise is pretty ugly too, I would just limp or fold preflop, never raise. Now you're playing an inflated pot, out of position, against 2 people. Really unappealing spot. You can avoid it entirely by not raising in the first place.

Shipping here because even a queen will think about it and if we are called we still have an over and open ended, my thinking is a queen will never fold to a single bet and we are out of position so our only way of winning is making out hand. Also if we are called on flop there is no fold equity what so ever on turn. Let me know what you think of my reasoning .

Don't raise pre.

To calculate the EV of a semi-bluff, you add up the three different probable outcomes: fold (you win a little), call and bink (you win a lot), call and lose (you lose a good bit).

In this case, if x is our FE, then the EV of a semi-bluff is 38*x + 0.37(1-x)(123) + 0.63(1-x)(-85)

If you don't follow, 38 is the size of the pot you're bluffing into, so you multiply it by your fold equity, and you get how much you stand to win from your pure bluff; 1-x is the odds that you get called, so when you multiply that by the odds of winning when called (0.37)then you get how often you're winning the pot + their stack (123); using similar logic, the last part calculates how much you lose weighed by the probability that they call and you lose.

Hope that helps.

BTW, you don't have 37% equity against their calling range. In order to get a better number, you'd have to plug ranges into stove. Hint: you don't have as many outs against 33 or even KQ.

In my op I said against a top pair range we have 37% and we have a king blocker so that's less common

So if I have 50% FE i get a positive outcome of 14.98 against a top pair range. And yes I believe he's folding 50% probably more cause the only hands that are snap calling are two pair+, he's folding everything that missed( which is big cause one caller was a straddled) I believe every 10 or JJ is folding and even a queen will fold some percentage of the time.

Flopzilla could help you with some of these assumptions about their what percent of their range is folding.

Seems fine to me when both your opponents are short stacked and with the small SPR. It maximizes fold equity and prevents an awkward spot on the turn if you bet a normal amount and get called.

Don't raise pre from the SB with this hand.

WTF? Why is everyone saying not to raise this pre? This seems like a super standard value raise with only two atc ranges left to act. Who cares if we're OOP? We WANT to "inflate the pot" when we have a big equity edge. I'd probably raise pre-flop a little bit larger because the straddler is unlikely to fold.

We don't need to do the math to guess that overbet shipping the flop is profitable. However, I think a more standard bet size is likely more profitable. We can save money when we get called and miss, or trap more dead money from hands that will fold to a double barrel. I'd bet $20-$25 here and plan on shipping most turns if we get it HU against the straddler, maybe check/eval if we get it HU against the BB (his preflop and flop continuing ranges are stronger)

It's extremely optimistic to think you're getting a queen to fold. These guys have put in over 15% of their stack pre, and you think they're folding top pair? You will fold out some tens though you've got a lot of outs against a random ten as well. Wouldn't expect to see JJ here, would think a short stack shoves those hands pre. You will get A-high to fold, and probably also fold out a lot of pocket pairs worse than ten (other than 33 of course). That said, you'd also stack A-high if an A came on turn or river, so folding those hands out is not necessarily great.

Misread preflop action. Raising is good with just the BB and straddler left in the hand.

In my experience when someone raises and ships flop I'm not calling with a crappy queen AQ probably calls and KQ does as well but hands like QJ and worse I believe are folding. Not from V1 but v2 probably is. Also why would I not want to fold out A high hands I would have to shut down on the turn of called and if I missed he would win at showdown.

You're not calling with a crappy queen, but would your Villains? I think it's very unlikely a short stack has a hand w a queen that would fold here. Why call $15 with $85 back just to fold top pair?

I'm still ok with the shove since we do fold out hands that beat us and have good equity if called. However, I think AT is the beat realistic hand we get to fold here and that will call some of the time. If you're making this play expecting to fold out a queen I think you'll be disappointed. Of course, with an open ender and an overcard you're still doing fine against a queen.

Ok well as it played out I actually did not shove flop , I bet 26 into the 38 and got called by both, than turn was a blank and I checked and it checked through river was an ace and I bet 55 into 114 and V1 snap called with AK and v2 said he had a queen. I talked to someone about the hand and they offered the idea of shipping flop and I really liked the idea and wanted to see what others thought and had to say about it.

Well played, IMO, as long as the 55 on the river had both players covered.

Something no-one in the thread has mentioned yet is that an overbet ship looks kind of fishy. Would you really do this with a strong hand when you're looking to get value? Due to this I think the rate at which a shove gets called doesn't go down as much as you would like compared to a more standard bet size.

This is my only problem with the open ship. You are mostly going to get the money in, so you "might as well" shove, and it's really just a matter of what looks the most like you have a strong Q. I think betting a normal amount twice accomplishes this the best.