1/3 300 effective stacks

Read on villain is tight passive, gives hero lots credit, overall take very passive lines vs hero from the hands I've played vs hiim

I open UTG with KJcc to 12, villain in MP2 flats, everyone else folds

Flop: Qc Td 6c
I c-bet 15 into 25, he calls

turn: 4x
I bet 35 into 55, he calls

river: 5x
I bet 80?

We block KQ QJ, I think he's folding all Tx and only calling with AQ+. also 2 pair would probably raise the flop or turn.

Looks like a good scenario for a third barrel.

Key is the description of V.

You are repping AA/KK/AQ/QQ/TT having opened UTG.

Agree 2pair + likely sticks in a raise on previous streets.

Also need to get folds from AcXc

Hmm. At first glance I like it, in the sense you should have some bluff triple barrels,

But if I think about the combinations I'm not sure the river bet is worth it.

Your blockers don't make much of a difference because he shouldn't be calling turn with a whole lot worse than TPGK. Ok so instead of 36 combos of qj+ he has 28. For 2/3 pot to be profitable he needs to get to river with 19 combos of worse (assuming he has 0 combos of slowplayed 2p+, which is probably close to the truth at 1/2 on a wet board). Every combo of axs is 8, AT is 9. Does he call pre with kt? If so does he call turn with it?

Really depends on what he continues turn with. I guess it's close, and without any info the triple barrel is fine (if it's wrong it can't be by much)

DK who?

Well, my first name is Donkey

kc and jc nutlow blockers to barrel river, probably give up

Yup. I am mostly targeting AcXc with a third barrel, which I think is a large part of his range here.

I’d give up on the river. You raised pre and bet the flop and turn and V called. He obviously likes his hand. The 5 on the river changes nothing so if he called the flop and turn then he’s most likely calling the river. Also, about the only draws a tight passive will have are KJ and AcTc and we double block KJ.

Balance might be overrated in such games, but it doesn´t take a poker prodigy to figuere out Hero likely underbluffs a ton if he double barrels twice with equity but can´t find the last barrell otr if he missed.
People will adjust to us, and if they stop paying off too lightly, your whole valuebet heavy bet/fold strategy is in danger. We also don´t have a read this guy is incapable of folding.

Bottom of our range, credible line to repp valuehands, mandatory 3rd barrell imo.

Barrel,

It is a great hand to do it with. I expect it to be plus EV, and would be over betting pot a bit.

We have QQ, 10,10, AA KK, all hands we would value bet.

Get folds from some 10x, and even Qx if he is tight. Also get Ac x to fold here.

Plus if we get caught. It will help us get max value down the line.

Well played!!!!!



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Absolutely bomb turn. Check fold river.

Oesfd are bad 3 barrel combos

TBH we never really put a lot of pressure on him. Our bet sizes never gave us much FE, and now we're left guessing if he has a hand that will fold or not. I would've gone psb on f and t. You have to tell him that KQ is no good, QJ definitely isn't, and give A8cc the wrong odds to call turn (it'll never fold flop).

A while back one of the pooh-bahs gave me some advice I appreciate: when you realize you butchered a hand on an earlier street, just get out of mess already. When you find yourself in a hole, quit digging. (Unfortunately I get to reflect on this advice more often that I would like.) So here, I'd c/f, lose once in a while to Axcc that checks behind us, and chalk it up.

Give up on river. This guy is not folding Qx.

Would be better to empty the clip with KJo. We want him to have Kc and Jc in his range, and he doesn't. Targeting AcXc only is too thin here. AQ/KQ is just too much a part of his range here IMO.

It really doesn´t take a poker genius to realize if Hero barrels twice with equity and shuts it down on the river after missing he might be severely underbluffing.