Quote:
Originally Posted by Koss
Sets can always quad up ott and river. We dont want to blast a hand like 33 out of the pot when there is a 1 outer to a bbj. Although since no bbj was mentioned maybe it doesnt matter.
Oh, where I play you need pretty high quads for a BBJ so it would take like runner runner J+. I doubt we could get a set to fold in any case. They may put you on a flush or straight but not the straight flush, so they'll figure they have 10 outs with two cards to come.
The BBJ would have to be pretty large for this to be a consideration, no? Like we suppose V2 has a set, flush, or straight, that's 9 combos 76, 12 combos A2, 9 sets, and there are max 21 flushes, 15 of which may be in his range. So we figure optimistically he has a set 9/45 ~ 20% of the time and they'll get there with quads by the river about 4%, and if the payout is typical we get 20% as the winner, so the BBJ aspect is worth .2*.04*.2*BBJAmt = .0016*BBJAmt, so if the BBJ is 30k for instance this is worth max all of $48 (we're assuming V2 never has something like 2p), pre-tip. So in this scenario if we expect another line is worth more than $48 more in EV we should take that line.
All that said, flatting OTF seems fine, though I prefer a small raise. If V2 does have a set, there is no way he folds to a small raise because he figures he's usually against a straight or flush or combo draw and if he boats up could have a big payday. If we bump it up to say $180 OTF he's not folding, and probably not V1 with the NFD. But flat is okay, particularly as I just realized we only have $750 which is really unfortunate here given how deep V2 is. Yeah we can just flat OTF and OTT and stacks will get in by the river easily.
Last edited by Shai Hulud; 04-20-2018 at 11:34 PM.